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Add H to remove duplicates and add playoffs=0 and things get even rosier. Always knew it tended to be more of a half court game in the playoffs but pretty cool seeing it quantified.

You probably want to use the following:

FGA + 0.44*FTA + TO - OReb

Some folks remove ORebs but I tend to believe that a new possession starts after a change of possession. The 0.44 coefficient...

I sorted the spreadsheet based on the Z-scores listed from highest to lowest and grouped them by 10s while removing duplicates and took a look at results for this season. Got through the 1st 40 so...

I usually go to the RX service plays forum and select their daily service plays thread; Statfox trends are on the first page of the thread.

Here's one from Statfox:

-3<=Average(margin@team and season) <= 3 and p:margin>15 and -3<=oA(margin@team and season)<=3 and HF and season>2009

I agree with this. Post the plays you're making daily, would much better represent methodology and overall results.

Nash, can you detail how you calculate your own rating? I know you've broken it down earlier in the thread but could you provide an example?

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

play posted at 9:56am PT 1/4
Dallas Mavericks -7.5 -110 vs Cleveland Cavaliers

AF and line < -3 and line > -10 and Average(margin@team and season) >= 3 and p:points...

Apologies, haven't had much time recently. Still interested in taking part but I can drop out if more active participants are available.

The sick part is CHI was up 83-66 in the 4th at which point IND went on a 20-0 run. Unreal.

NBA SDQL Best Best

12-29-2014 - 2:45p PT

Play CHI -4.5 -110

tA(FTA)<=21 and oA(FTA)>=26.5 and HD and line<10 and rest<2 and o:rest<2

Fade a home dog who goes to the line sparingly...

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Play LAC -5 (-110)

A and p:AFL and p:line >= -4 and season > 2007

Play an away team off a loss on the road as a small favorite.

LAC x2
LAC/IND over
LAC/IND under x3
PHI/ATL under
WAS x4
WAS/ORL over x2
WAS/ORL under
BOS x2
BOS/CHA over
MIN x2

Wow, pushing on the under 206 in TOR/CLE was a minor miracle. I picked up the in-game under at 219.5 and 217.5. Takes some of the sting out of the beats we'd been taking in the previous couple of days

You're actually looking for the following:

no:WP>75 and line>-2

You're current query refers to the WP of the team under query for the next game.

If you add p:AL to each query the ATS bias fades but the under bias remains (obviously smaller sample size).

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-9-14 - 12:15p PST

Play: TOR/CLE under 206 (-110)


2007<=season and tS(ou margin, N=5)>=42 and WP>=75 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and rest<4 and o:rest<2

Play the...

Unless I'm missing something, pip2's query is pointing to Boston as he stated. I actually think the better play is the under for that game, will probably make that my best bet.

Mainly the under but Cavs as well.

Here's one that's active for today that supports the other query results:

tS(HW,N=4)>=3 and p:HW and AF and line<-3 and season>2005 and 190<=total<=200<total<200< html=""></total<200<>

NBA Best Bet
12/2/2014 8:43AM PDT

Toronto -1.5 (-110)

A and p:AFL and 1 <= rest <= 2 and season >= 2010

Play an away team off an away loss as a favorite with average rest.

Here's one that's not active today that I'll be adding to the spreadsheet:

p:margin<-8 and p:line<-5 and 50<WP<65 and o:WP>50

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet" 2014-15

11-29-14 - 11:53a PST

Play LAC/UTH under 201.5 (-110)

205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

For a total between 190 and 205, play...

200>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

I like U203.5 in SAC/NO tonight as my best bet but don't have the query with me as I'm at work.

Cool, wouldn't want you to be accountable for it, maybe have a column in the spreadsheet?

NBA Best Bet

11/24/14 2:00 PM PST
Play Philadelphia 76ers +13 (-110)

H and (line>10 or line<-15) and p:L and rest+p:rest+pp:rest>1 and rest<3 and playoffs=0 and p:line<=15

Play rested home...

Consig, would you be able to provide which queries are LT and MT?

Great work Consig, I'm a sucker for data.

Apologies on the lack of odds yesterday.

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
11-23-14 - 10:24pm PST

Play: DEN (-1.5) vs LAL, -110
SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and ...

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11/22/14 8:31am pst Toronto Raptors/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 207

AD and p:HW and p:dps>=15 and p:margin>=10 and o:rest<3 and o:WP>=45 and game number<=70 and...

Actually, what I'm saying is that the query is probably invalid as we ran across the same situation in the baseball thread where the A(W) term was used and returned an undefeated query that was bogus.

Pip2, the 33-0 query is most likely wrong as the A(W) term should be tA(W).

NBA 2014-15 best bet
Play Sacramento Kings -1.5 -110
p:AWD and op:HFL and rest>0 and o:rest>0 and
<line<4<line<4 and="" season=""><line<4 and="" season=""><line<4 and="" 2<line<4=""...

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-18-14

Play New York Knicks +3 (-115)
AD and line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season

Play an small away dog coming off a large...

No best bet for me tonight. BOL!

They're playing at a much slower pace than last year as they are currently middle of the pack in possessions per game whereas they were top 3 last year. Home/road pace splits are pretty significant...

p:AWD and rest=0 and AD and line>6 and season>2008 and 193>total

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-15-14 - 12:13am PST

Play Atlanta Hawks +6.5 -110
p:ou margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

Fading a team on a back2back where the previous game was...

IND/CHI under
H and 102<=tA(points)<=110 and 93<=oA(o:points)<=96 and total<=193 and playoffs=0

IND/CHI over
A and p:HL and p:margin<-10 and op:ADW and WP<40

IND/CHI under
H and total <...

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-14-14 - 10:49am PST

Play Denver Nuggets/Inidana Pacers Over 196 -110

A and p:HL and p:margin<-10 and op:ADW and WP<40

Away team coming off a beatdown at...

H and total>205 and p:HL and po:P3-p:P3 + po:P4-p:P4>14 and season>=2008

H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3

A and...

A and p:HL and p:margin<-10 and op:ADW and WP<40

Away team coming off a beatdown at home against a team coming off a satisfying win on the road. I looked at a bunch of additional switches (month,...

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and playoffs=0

Removing P:W and month!=3 still returns a 64.5% win rate (107-59-5).

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-13-14 - 9:25am PT

Play Bulls +3 -120

SDQL:

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and month!= 3 and...

HF and line < -6 and p:HFL and p:line < -6 and season >= 2011

conference != o:conference and p:LF and p:margin < -9 and season > 2010 and site=home and playoffs=0

A and -3 <= line <= 5 and p:H and p:margin > 10 and P:W and month != 3 and o:rest < 2 and 2011 <= season and D

Consigliere, those graphs are an awesome tool to discern between long term and short term trends. Many thanks to you and all who have put in hard labor on the spreadsheet.

I would argue that...

Damn, that's a ridiculous run!