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Stupid Spurs. Yay Nets!

Still wishing I would have pulled the trigger on the Knicks last night. I hate when I have a gut feeling about an underdog and pass it up...

:grrr:

Are you guys doing much for NCAA BB with March Madness happening?

Thanks for these today! :grrr:

Can't bite on the Philly tips. They don't look much like they even care at this point. And playing on the road against a team trying to secure the #1 seed? Steering clear...

Unfortunately, I'm...

Question: do you guys bet "to win 1U" or do you "bet 1U to win XXX"? Or does it depend on the juice?

It was almost one of those "shoulda known" days: OF COURSE the juiciest game was the only one that hit. :P

Gotcha. I don't mind juicy games, I just prefer to parlay a few together. For instance, hit on a 4-team parlay in NCAABB today with 4 favorites all -400 or less - got it just above even money, so...

No worries at all. :)

You'd rather take that much juice than to look for some value on a 1Q, 1H, or total line? Just curious...

Where are you getting -235 on the Hawks ML? I haven't seen them any better than -420 all day...

I guess I could have doubled up on Memphis - I was on N.O. +4 in my system. Winners all around!

I did skip the parlay as I was on Charlotte ML. Good day for everyone! :)

Good luck on Toronto; they're a fade in a system I've been trying out. Not sure what to think about Philly at this point - they're even more toxic than Milwaukee! But, hey, seems like they have to...

Could it still just be some after-break pains? Seems like a few teams are playing much better or much worse than they had been.

I was super rushed yesterday and only ended up getting the...

Just curious - has something slipped on the 1Q tips? Those were really hot, but had a rough week... and now just 1 today. I always enjoy those plays - I try to cap them myself, then if we agree,...

I'm having the same problem with the Boston Bruins lately. Sigh...

Rough day. Besides the 1-1-1 result here, I had Bucks & Cavs in a parlay teased to +10 and +13, respectively. Bucks sank a last second shot to lose by 9. Whew! Then the Cavs gave back an 11-pt...

I personally view pushes as wins. Getting a bet back is better than losing... right? :)

I checked the ref stats - all 3 officials favor the home team by noticeable amounts. Probably should have checked that ahead of time... ugh...

Thanks for the write-ups, as always. :)

Well damn. The other system I follow has Denver +2. Not sure about cornering myself into a Nets 1pt victory to win both bets... Hmm...

Uh oh. All my parlay talk got them running down that path... ;)

I decided to roll the dice on the Bulls -3 since I had no ML. Sweated that one out, but got it to save the 2-2 day.

Gotcha. Yeah, 5Dimes is in my near future. Their deposit criteria is a bit more convoluted than Bovada's was.

Edit:

Funnily enough, the Bulls ML and the Minnesota team props are the ONLY...

What's your thoughts about how to bet a game if there's no ML? I'm still using Bovada and it's not uncommon for them to have no ML for 1/2 of a day's NBA games. I can't bet Bulls ML right now, but...

Great calls tonight. Thanks, and keep it up!

Makes sense. I had -155 on Dallas and -190 on LAC on my book, so I decided to do a .5U parlay for the +150 combo.

That's a lot of juice on the Clippers. A win is a win, I suppose.

What about parlaying Dallas & Clippers to get that juice down some? Do you guys do much of that in your own wagers?

Eh, it's the week after the All-Star break. Weird things happen, trends fall apart until everyone's a few games back into the groove. We'll get 'em next week!

1/2 units on the Laker bets... I can go for that. Lakers are my team anyway, so time to BELIEVE! :)

No worries. Gambling is as much about wanting to win as it is about learning along the way. On to the next!

Just to stoke conversation, here are the results of this season's Sunday morning games:

11/10 - SA/NY - o/u 195, result 209 = OVER
11/17 - Por/Tor - o/u 193, result 228 = OVER
11/24 - Det/Brk -...

I missed out on 2H Warriors, but luckily I put a Heat +3, Nuggets -2, & Warriors ML parlay together yesterday.

I've long been on the fence about using referee stats to influence my picks/bets. But when I see stuff like what I posted from Bulls/Raptors, it gives me pause...

If anyone ever wants to see that...

You mean some road cooking? ;) The game was in Toronto.

That aside, it's probably worth looking at some referee stats:

Scott Foster - home ATS in his games: 14-29, home-away scoring: 100-103...

No worries. Yeah, I went ahead with the -3. :)

Any suggestion if my sportsbook doesn't put up a moneyline on the Charlotte game? I can currently only bet them -3 or o/u 201.

Looks good to me. :)

I gotta get moved over to 5Dimes soon. Bovada is so slow with their moneylines and 1H lines. None currently posted.

Dang. I wish I'd seen your post - I absolutely would have put at least a fiver on that parlay. Good job!

Something I've been looking at... so far in 2013-14, games with a 10+ point spread have come out 66-48-2 for the UNDER. I'm not sure what kind of correlation is there, if any, but it's interesting...

Nothing on over/unders today? Part of me thinks teams are going to pour it on, since they have a 4-day break about to start... I'm tempted to bet every 1Q over and a bunch of game overs... Hmm...

We're gonna have a +20U day?! WOO HOO! :grrr:

I forgot to check your picks here. I went 3-1 on my 1Q bets, with the loss being... Charlotte. D'oh! :) (Wins on Cleveland +1/2, Sac/Cle over 51, Dal/Cha over 50.)

Here's hoping!

These days happen. I've been wondering what info to glean from all of this. Something strikes me about looking into teams playing under .500 at home/on road/overall... and maybe avoiding those plus...

Based on that 1Q, I'm not feeling very good about the Philly +16 bet... Ugh...

Ouch. 0-3-1 on these 1Q bets today. Where did we go wrong? (I had the same 4 you guys did.)

I do look at 1Q, 1H, 2H, etc if that's the play I'm considering. TeamRankings.com has a lot of available scoring stats and fits what I was doing manually before I found the site.

Thanks! Yeah, I noticed that about the o/u .500 on 1Q. It does happen. I totally agree on Miami; any time they play a bad team, especially on the road, it just lands as "that's just the kind of...

Well, a 5-0 day for me. I went with Utah +3 and Milwaukee +3.5 instead of Miami & Houston. Took the other 3 here. Thanks guys!