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Pip,
What do you think of this for tonight?

0 < p:M3<=5 and AD and -2 > p:margin >=-7 and rest = 0 and p:overtime=1 and rest = 0 and [M1 > -2.5]

P:margin<=-10 and P:season=season

Yes, I will be selling trends on there as well.

Right, and it should be noted that in the context of expected deviations from the mean that you are referring to, the smaller the sample size of these separate sets of flips at different heights...

Just because you don't understand the rationale for queries with many variables does not mean it's not valid or even that they're over-fitted. Yes, certainly the most intuitive ones are more face...

-10<=margin at the half<=-6

excellent job pip2 and hyahya

So clearly, if a no-play is not a consideration in your example, determining a pick is more complicated than just going with the side supported by the query with the strongest WP/ROI/biggest sample...

Nash, thank you for the very useful information on NHL. Can you clarify what you mean by queries 03 - 09? Are you referring to NHL queries numbers 3 through 9?

Thanks

this:
AF and -3.5>=line>=-9.5 and tA(points@team and season)>=99 and (po:P1+po:P2)>=55 and (ppo:P1+ppo:P2)>=55

play against a road team, dog, and/or road dog with no rest ATS for the 1st quarter if they had the lead at the end of the 3rd quarter of yesterday's game but nevertheless, ended up losing the game....

Error

Nash, thank you for this extremely valuable summary/report!

Please forgive my ignorance but what exactly does the excel extension you are demoing do?

In traditional stats, like you said, a z-score of 1.96 and higher is signficant with a .05 chance the results happened by chance; and a z-score of 2.58 or higher is signficant with a .01 chance the...

active again today:

Jazz 1st quarter -.5

p:M3 >0 and (D) and 0>p:margin>-3 and rest = 0 and WP<50 and o:WP<50 and 5>line>0

p:M3 >2 and (D) and 0>p:margin>-2 and rest = 0 and WP>o:WP and...

Thanks for the invitation JMon, but just don't have enough time to devote enough attention to making picks with enough regularity on top of that of NHL....

Ah, I see.
Thanks.

Nash, thank you for this guide on the effectiveness of the queries and which ones are working best!

Just for clarification, what do you mean by double play?

Pip or anyone else who is wondering how p:M3 >= 0 and (A or D) and 0 > p:margin and rest = 0 has been doing lately because they missed that it was active for whatever reason over the past week or so...

What % of this season's Nuggets is even the same as in 2012?

damn...and I thought it was because of Kobe that the Lakers got worked by more than 10.5 based on your sound rationale.

Yes, for fun... It better be or its not worth it to me ;)

Good point... If it loses, we will never know why especially when considering the countless relevant variables that can affect the...

Maybe I should have said that it doesn't like Tuesdays as much... while 12-7 is a winning record, it is also not very compelling for Cleveland despite an admittedly small sample size of 19. Just to...

Nice query. One thing I noticed, however, is that it doesn't seem to like Tuesdays of all days:

day=Tuesday and playoffs=0 and H and game number > 7 and tA(FGM + TPM*0.5)/tA(FGA) > .467 and...

I know, man... I kinda beat myself up over passing on it too, but if you look at the differential after the first quarter, it was a complete outlier comparing it to the average 1st quarter...

p:M3=1 and (A or D) and -12<=p:margin<=-6 and rest = 0 and WP < o:WP and 5<=line<=17 and [M1 < -line/4]

if line is too large (e.g., <-4) then it might be prohibitive, since the average 1st...

Aw hell ya, pip!! :cheers:

I hear you, and I see that slight edge... 6-4 is a bit too small a sample size to extrapolate too much from, but it is consistent with the basic query with a much larger sample size showing the...

Pip,
I think there's an error in the query somewhere... I was excited about this one too, but if you compare the number of trues with number of falses in the following query, falses outweigh...

p:M3 >= 0 and (AD) and 0 > p:margin and rest = 0 and day = Wednesday and month=12

Look at average Q1 scores in this situation. Average margin=-3.6 for home team

Another way to determine the likelihood that the home team will win in this situation is to compare the differences (margin) between the average Q1 score and average Q2 score in this situation with...

active again today:

p:M3 >= 3 and (A or D) and p:L and rest = 0 and [M1 > - line / 4] = [False]

As long as away team isn't too much of a favorite, the trend still applies:

p:M3 >= 0 and AF...

Again today with pistons and Thunder. Thunder ATS 1st quarter

:cheers:

Nice! Thanks, pip...on it again!

Taking a closer look, Fridays is one of the better days for this query, and especially in Dec, Mar, and Apr. Fridays in Dec show an average 1st quarter...

mistake

Nice...on it too:

4 >= p:M3 >= 1 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -2 and rest = 0

Nash thanks for including those... One of those does pretty well in December:

p:rushing yards>300 and line>-10 and month=12

Nice!

It's interesting that when they lose by too much (i.e., by more than 2) it's not quite as demoralizing as when it is a loss by 2 or less... However, sample size may be too small to have enough power...

Add day=Monday, and things get rosier, albeit with a smallish sample size

And that they are a dog helps as much as, if not more than, being on the road.

That's nice--very intuitive rationale... Tweaked it a bit:

p:M3 >= 3 and D and 0 > p:margin >= -2 and rest = 0 and [M1 > - line / 4] = [False]

Thanks for the query and rationale.

Here's a version of it tweaked a bit that points to Nuggets su:

p:defensive rebounds + po:offensive rebounds >= 52 and HF and p:fouls <30 and (day=Wednesday)...

Could be true, but if the sample size is large enough for a particular situation, then adding the average team and opponents total points seems like it may be a reliable enough reflection of what the...

Ha, actually I take that back. Towards the beginning of the 4th, it was looking to be higher scoring than what it actually ended up being. 207 was pretty close to the outcome here, which although...

Pip,
Yeah you might be right there, especially given that the total in this last quarter is going higher than average for the 4th quarter in the list of games. So yes, there's variation which may...

S2>=1.197*Average(S2@team and season) and S2<=1.237*Average(S2@team and season) and o:S2>=1.023*Average(o:S2@team and season) and o:S2<=1.063*Average(o:S2@team and season)

SU: 131-42 (6.18,...

P1>=1.13*Average(P1@team and season) and P1<=1.20*Average(P1@team and season) and o:P1>=1.13*Average(o:P1@team and season) and o:P1<=1.20*Average(o:P1@team and season) and total>=200

SU: 74-78...