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Thanks for another textbook answer, str. A big help for me.

Thanks, the 7 race doesn't look to have much value (in my book). The horses I tossed out were the same that were scratched earlier; unrelated to that. lol

On the topic of scratched horses that are quickly reentered. Today's race 7 at Santa Anita has three of them, all scratched in the San Pasqual, won by Coil last weekend. They are the #1, #4, and #6...

Greeley Awesome a winner! (At 5/2, but much better odds at Ehorsex exchange; related to Bookmaker)

Thanks for that str. I was just wondering. Does an owner factor in at all? I had wondered about this before, when Baffert entered four horses in an 8 horse race. Is that just part of the game or...

Sorry to add it on here, but this race is off tomorrow so ...

Greeley Awesome was entered in the Sham Stakes this last weekend (won by Goldencents), but was scratched and is now entered in the...

str, in the same race do you see anything that suggests #4 Dry Summer doesn't like the racing surface?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/race-replays/USA/SA/2013/1/5/3/sham-s-gr-3
...

str, if possible could you also comment on the level of competition in that race?

Great advice. Yeah, it's a comfort level with the tracks (and jockeys). Santa Anita and Del Mar work well for me. Hollywood not so much. No idea why. I would like to fit in one or two tracks...

Happy New Year to you, str.

Had been planning to study the winter-based track biases, but realized I'm mostly a West Coaster. Santa Anita (+Del Mar) covers so much of the year that I'd be...

Thanks for the heads up. Missed it this time, but next week it's on. (winter is here as well. I got a big driveway with a snow bias that could turn to ice if I don't go out there).

Thanks for the accurate read on that race. I was just going by the 'race to the quarter mile' that this BC turned into (for two turn races on the dirt); where the cutoff point for winners was 1.5...

Thanks. So it was Executiveprivilege that created the big show pool, as well as the value for the rest of the field. A double advantage! Makes sense now.

Executiveprivilege (6/5 ML) was bet...

str, do you have any words of wisdom about the pools? In the Hollywood Starlet this past weekend both the 1st and 2nd place finishers paid more to show than to place.
...

If I recall correctly, Dutrow mentioned that the power was in the back end, so that's why a horse could improve dramatically with the right treatment. Seems a great claiming angle.

One more...

About that back end. Any added thought about that, str? I read that Dutrow liked to claim horses that ran poorly because of back end stuff, because he knew he could improve them. I also remember...

Thanks for the great answer, str. I can't believe you got all that from just that list.

mrginandtonic, when you click 'go advanced' at the bottom of the page (when you post a reply), you'll see a...

Str, what are some of the thoughts that a history as the one below would bring to your mind? It's for No Hesitation, a 5 year old who races at Hollywood Park this Thursday. The horse was never worse...

I wasn't aware the media had blasted the BC speed bias this year. So the reason for the different accent (of speed bias) is not really identifiable? Oh well, it's another year away. Bias is a big...

I believe you. But the speed bias seemed a little out of the norm for the BC.

Here's Baffert two weeks later:



This is his home track, and he didn't have a good read on it for the BC. For...

Thanks for outlining all that. I will be playing the California tracks, so this is an important part. Strangely, the information I'm looking for, from a first glance, seems to be already present in...

I was using the 1/4 mile distance, that shows on the race form with lengths behind, based on the Santa Anita speed bias. But I suppose the race-within-the-race for the early lead, when there is...

I want to make sure I'm not over-simplifying the elements involved in speed bias. Is it fair to consider it a race-within-a-race to the 1/4 mile, and use a cut-off point in lengths behind (either...

Questing. Eye injury:

With the short term frustration now gone, I can only blame myself. The question of a fast start, apart from the rest of the race, is fair enough. I was looking for actual full-fledged 'horse...

Breeder's Cup Bias. Dirt track was extremely speed favoring. It was all about the start. A bad start, such as experienced by Shackleford and Game On Dude meant that you were out. There was no...

I'll reread those. This thread could use an index. lol

Edit:

All read up. No further questions about Lasix. We'll see how it plays out.


What do you think about the upcoming BC? I...

It does seem strange to make the big races of the year the test case. All-or-nothing without doing the research first. If gamblers took that approach... (it could also affect the KY Derby odds). ...

The Breeder's Cup is approaching fast. There will be five races for 2-year olds, and they will all be Lasix free. The plan is to have a completely Lasix free BC in 2013.

I welcome the...

Love it. Rail bias here we come! lol

For stalkers and closers who take advantage of a rial bias, wouldn't that be on the jockey, at least to a large extent? I've never thought about Borel (Bo-rail) in this way, but I wonder now if he...

Good stuff, as always. So the rail favors any horse in the 1-2 path. Wouldn't that favor speed horses more often, since they'll have that path most of the way?

Funny. Just as I posted this a...

So the bias is about the depth of the surface, correct? Right now, at Santa Anita, there's a speed bias because horses trying to come from behind are stuck in the deep surface. But with a rail...

I remember you mentioned that no horse had come back to win from more than 2 or 3 lengths back all day on 2011 Belmont Stakes day. Race favorite Animal Kingdom had a poor start, then started his...

I probably was asking the wrong question, str. It's not about mud. I see now that mud can open the door to a strong bias, and a strong bias opens the door to the unusual. It was always the bias,...

Thanks for sparing me the trouble. Still, I have to look into it some more. I don't think 24-1 Ruler On Ice would have had a shot in the 2011 Belmont without the slop, do you? Ruler On Ice has yet...

str, would you consider mud/slop as a 'great equalizer'? In other words, a surface that gives longshots a better shot (because there's less traction). If you say no I won't have to look at it...

str, just to follow up on Santa Anita's first few days of racing and monitoring the track bias. So far the track seems to favor speed. Watchmaker from drf not too impressed early on:


...

wrong data. nm.

Wow. Thanks for the very detailed answer. Saturday is a big day already, so this is a big help. (For those who may not know, races and replays can be watched at calracing.com).

str, the Santa Anita fall meet starts this week. Normally this is a fast track. And I would expect it to be a fast track again when the Breeders Cup rolls around. But at this point, before the...

I suppose it wouldn't be right to just gallop around the track, cash in the 30K, and move on to the next race without a loss of energy.

:grrr:

Is this an extreme case of avoiding a strong horse, or is 30K for fifth place not worth it?

str, the rider had lost the tension in the reigns/on the bit and was trying to reestablish it? He didn't move his hands up on the neck to ask the horse for more, because he had no tension in the...

I'm not sure I understand. Instead of asking for more, the jockey waited for the horse to decide?

Is that an alternate strategy, or possibly a decision that killed any chance the horse might...

And what about turf? This is yesterday's Bowling Green Stakes at Belmont. Track was rated as 'good'.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U44laJZT8Zw

#3 Newsdad just drops away after being in a...

If a horse runs good or bad first time out in the mud, is that something that sticks? The natural assumption may be that he likes or doesn't like the mud, but that may not be the case. After all,...

Very informative! Thanks so much.

Yeah, I'm starting to see that Smith's post-race comments can have a little flavor to them. Grain of salt territory. Thanks for explaining.

This track bias topic is going to be slow progress for...

str, I can't quite picture the process you were referring to yet. Are you saying that the track has a slight slope towards the rail? So when the track is graded the loose soil moves towards the...