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You could do both. I'd probably just set the starting bankroll to $10k-$20k and compare results. You shouldn't have to worry about overflowing the double data type with 10,000 plays.

You could...

For a better representation, try starting with a bankroll much higher than $1000. Therein lies the issue that you're running into with those sims.

The problem with this is that it's a losing strategy. The median bankroll for both flat betting and Kelly after 10,000 plays is almost identical - pretty much broke. The difference is simply that...

If your goal is to minimize bankroll fluctuation, your bet size should be zero. If your goal is to maximize bankroll growth, well... some variant of Kelly.

You might also want to try smaller fractions of Kelly as well.

I think you should try running the multiple iteration sim. I just ran a 1000 iteration sim 10 times with FULL Kelly versus 2% flat betting, 1000 plays, between -200 and +200, 0.5%-5% edge, and -1%...

For a standard comparison of flat betting versus Kelly without introducing error, just set the min and max edge estimation error to zero.

Can't you run the sim? That's what it's there for.

The short answer is: it depends.

There are many factors that go into it. Flat betting %, average line, range of edges, etc.

If you're...

I wouldn't have if it weren't for years of persistence.

Garbage in, garbage out. Like I said in my original post, if you're miscalculating your edge to the point of negative expectation (or grossly overbetting) with regularity, you won't be successful...

Okay. Here's my final version.

It includes multiple iteration simulations as requested. It also includes the optimized code that Thom provided.

I figured people could use the base code and add a loop for multiple sims or track it in another spreadsheet to analyze separately. It certainly wouldn't be hard to do and perhaps when I get some...

Sure. Go ahead.

I was going to optimize it but I got lazy.

There have been countless posts in the Think Tank regarding the virtues of Kelly staking versus flat betting. Most naysayers of the Kelly Criterion are convinced that inaccurate edge estimation...