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I don't understand why checking picks against the opening line vs closing when betting the total matters. My bookie sets the lines one hour prior to each game and rarely are there significant moves...

So, there were 102 games I bet on (using the method) for 2012-13 where my line was 2 points or lower than the Vegas line.

Out of these 102 games, the closing line moved higher than the opener 54...

Miz,

What do you mean by movement agrees with predictions? How do I classify this? Sometimes line goes up and sometimes down but the system says play the under. Shoudl I count how many times...

agree on the noise from older years and I have tested other ranges (i.e. 2000 - present) and developed a modeling accordingly.

I'll take a look at line movement, but it will take a bit and report...

any thoughts? Another huge part of this:

During weeks 9-17 from 2012-13, the over under was 136-136-2. So Vegas was dead nuts on. Yet, during these weeks in games where my formula estimated a...

How can I effectively test this even more? Create the regression equation from 1985 to 2010 then test 2011,2012,2013? And then again from 1985 to 2009 then test 2010-13 etc. etc.?

Ok, I have posted some systems in the past, but this thread is not about any of those.

Would like your guys' opinions on the following:

I found a way to estimate each team's points per game...