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You didn't miss it, you stated that at the very beginning. Actually I was surprised you started playing only selected games and breaking the system.
The chalk doesn't matter if you have +EV.

I had exactly the same moneylines and I expected at least 3-1.

Right... and the sixth comes in the last minute of the game, just to keep tension high.

P.S. It is already 2-5 so excitement away.

Nice pick(s).

US players not being allowed at Betfair is a kind of strange. Pinnacle doesn't have live option after 3rd afaik, but there must be some other book for you guys.
Or betting in advance on every...

Time for double bets on SO's.

:cheers:

Checking any other play on those games couldn't provide better results UNLESS you can find some common denominator e.g. is there any correlation among all those games ending in SO. Otherwise you...

I was already on my way to cache the reg time draw.

I guess some of you guys almost had an heart attack, lol.

Very nice 5-2 +2.30 for a day.


I don't know how long a4u2fear will post the picks, hopefully at least to the end ofthe season, so look at the things in the very long run.
There are lot of...

Just look at the total stats, pieces don't matter. The system keeps winning and that is all that counts.
The yield is still roughly 6% and I beleive it can't go further down.

No need for worries. With Col Over, the day will still be positive. Even if it finishes under, there will be slightly loss.
Despite SO drawdown, everything is just fine.

I actually already played the same picks on my own, so this one will be a parlay.:cheeleade
P.S. Got it @4.98 having NAS Under 5.5.

The problem with this is that you optimized the results for total number of games. Usualy the right way is to do it only for the first part and applying the new way to the second part (or more). In...

The last three days were tough accross the board.
It is just a normal drawdawn.

I think he explained it somewhere in the first two pages of the thread.
The moneyline was well tested and totals were possible winners too, but not 100% sure.

Correct. However after 100 O/U picks, the result is much off your testing results. Sure, the sample is small, but still... Maybe you could find some time to rigorously retest your data/results from...

:grrr:

Glad to see totals turning green.
Very nice plays a4u2fear.

What is wrong with square plays if they are EV+?

Shots/goals ratio (for each team individually)?

At the moment ML results are much above average, so either a correction or several games with total gain ~ 0 is expected.
For Totals the expectation is exactly the opposite.

So, I would suggest...

It is a bit strange that the totals perform so badly up to now as your numbers show that totals have 15% yield compared to 7% of ML.
Are you sure your O/U testing was correct?

If I understood you correctly, your system originally picked each and every game in the testing period.


In post #27 you stated that you will post only Home Fav ML and Away Dog ML (if picked by...

If we convert the profit to average odds of 2.0, we come to 54% win ratio after the juice.
This looks pretty much statistically significant after 6000 bets.

I see you don't bet every game anymore (ML), despite fitting 20+ games played.
Have you changed picking criteria?

Hopefully you'll keep sharing for a longer period.