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RIO 2016

After spending so many hours crunching numbers that I have lost count, I have formulated a basic model for predicting individual country's success in the Rio games. My model uses base...

Man what a shame, 4-1 today in UFC with every play being a dog ($2.00 or higher). If it wasn't for Matt Brown's piss poor effort then would have killed this card...

Sorry that's supposed to be Raiders -4 1st Half

NRL

Raiders v Rabbitohs

1.5* Raiders -4 (Will Hill)

AFL

Melbourne v Gold Coast

2.5* Melbourne -37.5 (Luxbet)

UFC 201

1* Ryan Benoit ($2.00 Pinnacle)

0.5 Kowalkiewicz ($2.59 Pinnacle)

No I have no idea what will happen in the main event, but like most would like to see Robbie win so that he can...

Wow, so easy. Should have gone larger!

UFC 201

1* Masvidal via decision ($2.10 W.H & Sportsbet)

UFC 201

0.5* Wilson Reis via submission ($3.00 Sportsbet)

UFC 201

2* Matt Brown via KO ($2.00 Will Hill)

More to follow...

Correction - Roos are 1.5 unit play.

Sorry about the erratic posting boys, have been real busy with work, also been in Sydney for awhile (watched Origin III & Swans v Hawks @ SCG). Anyway gonna post some plays this w/e, had a good week...

NRL

Raiders v Knights

2* Raiders 1st Half -11.5 (William Hill)
2.5* Raiders -24.5

It's the biggest line of the season for a very good reason. Elite attacking team who are at their best in...

NRL

Warriors v Titans
1* Warriors 1st Half -5.5

Cronulla v Parramatta
1* Cronulla 1-12 ($3.00 Sportsbet/W. Hill)
1* Under 38.5

AFL

St Kilda @ Gold Coast
1* Saints 1-39 ($2.60 Sportsbet)
1* Saints ML ($2.02 Pinnacle) - this play is to protect against another Gold Coast flogging (unlikely but possible)

Saints are bad...

NRL

Warriors v Titans
3* Warriors -10 (William Hill)
Note - If can't get the -10, would recommend 1-2 units on the 13+ at about $2.20

Penrith v Wests Tigers
1.5* Over 44.5
2 potent...

Also putting a 4 unit future on the Brisbane Broncos to make top 4 in the NRL ($1.70 Sportsbet). After much analysis, I have them beating the Bulldogs & Raiders by a comfortable 1-2 games for the...

Also really like Brisbane to win the wooden spoon at around $3.00, as it all comes down to the crucial round 18 match between Brisbane and Essendon at Etihad and I like Essendon to win this game....

Using the AFL leader predictor, I have gone through the whole season. Can't upload the damn screenshot.

Spent a lot of time on this, went over it 3 times. I picked the margins as well as the...

NRL

Penrith v Souths
2.5* Penrith -9.5

Panthers should put 30 on them at home, however their goal line defence has been poor lately as well. Regardless the Rabbits are horrible, no longer...

AFL

Essendon v GWS
2* GWS -60.5 (Pinnacle)
Was going to play big, but I don't like Shane Mumford out (huge out) for GWS & McDonald-Tipungwuti in (huge in) for Essendon, so not as excited as I...

AFL

Freo v Port
1.5* Over 179.5 (William Hill - 180.5 is ok)

Two good looking forward lines on paper, although Freo's depends somewhat on how much gas super Pav has left in the tank & whether...

Thanks mate. Agree 100% on the high scoring affair. Season not looking so bad after after all for the purple haze with 2 rising star nominations in a row...

90456

NRL

My favourite match up (from a betting POV) in a long time.

Warriors v Roosters
2* Warriors -7.5
1* Warriors 13+ ($2.50 Sportsbet)
1* Warriors team total Over 25.5 ($1.82 Sportsbet)
1*...

The surprise return of Souths captain John Sutton is the reason that the ML hasn't come in as predicted, but is holding firm around $1.80. Also because Sammy Burgess was under an injury cloud but was...

AFL

Sydney v Melbourne
2* Swans 1-39 ($2.00 William Hill)
Under looks very strong play as well but is too low for my liking.


NRL

Dragons v Storm

Posting early because this ML will continue to get crunched (Expect Parra to start around $1.55-$1.60)

NRL

Rabbitohs v Eels

2* Eels ML ($1.79 Pinnacle, great price! Won't last. Next best is...

Good to see you mate. The more Anzacs on this site the better!

Do you think Wallabies can win 2nd test?

Was opening my mail last night, got a letter offering $10 free on some online casino. Was just watching NRL shows on Foxtel so I thought sure I'll gamble away your free $10 on a couple of spins. Hit...

Lads for those who are tailing better free up some funds because we are going to go BIG on GWS this weekend. Will have a play tomorrow before the line gets too out of hand.

Will update my record...

Nice finish to a poor weekend with the Panthers, Bulldogs & Demons all saluting for a desperately needed 7 units profit. Hope you lads were on the Dee's today.

NRL

Bulldogs v Dragons
2* Bulldogs -7.5 (Luxbet)

Cowboys v Sharks
1* Over 38

Horrible weekend. Got crushed. Put alot of time into my plays. Didn't work out. Confidence is low, but I'll bounce back. My sincere apologies to any who tailed. Not done yet however. Confident the...

Also the price for North Melbourne ML is $2.18 (also at Pinnacle. $2.15 available at Sportsbet)

Correction - Brisbane v Freo is Under 188 (available at Pinnacle). Probably won't last...

NBA - Nothing today. I hope the Warriors win, but I think the Cav's win. Lean 1st H under.

NRL

Eels v Titans
2.5* Titans -2

Roosters v Storm
1* Under 37.5
1* Storm 1-12 ($3.15 William...

Hawks look great. 13 scoring shots in 1st Q. Im gonna have a look at another Q although unlikely to hedge out at this stage. For those who followed the big play at -66.5, not only can you hedge out...

The reason i posted those early AFL plays, was because I expected the lines to move out more & wanted to grab them while they were "good". Grading lines is what I consider my biggest strength in...

Well top 8 teams are 2-14 away against other top 8 teams this year mate, although 1 of those wins was the Swans (Hawthorn - MCG). So much of the GWS spreads are based on potential - that is the...

Mitchell & Gunston both in doubt. That would do it...

Boys may have to make a small adjustment to the play tonight after teams are announced. Anyone who tailed please check back tonight or...

Had 1 unit on Cav's 1st Q as well. Huge day for me. Over 5 units profit...

NRL

Broncos v Raiders
2* Broncos team total over 25.5 ($1.81 Sportsbet. Over 26 available at Luxbet for $1.95)
5 try's, 3 coversions - bang.
1* Brisbane -10 (Luxbet)
Broncos are the best ATS...

90348


Overeem came to our gym as well.

90350

Thanks mate! So glad to see you hear from you. I'm not so sure about the Lions, I think now that the dockers have had a win it will give them some much needed confidence. They really have the lions...

Yeah I feel bad for Lesnar, I love watching him fight & I'm stoked he's back. But Hunt's gonna KTFO. Will be lucky to get out of the 1st round. You know Mark trained at my gym in Adelaide...

Early plays...

AFL

Carlton v St Kilda
2.5* Carlon -8.5 (William Hill)

Saints missing some key talls up front & down back won't help their cause.

Hawthorn v Essendon

NBA Finals

Already have 2 units down on Cav's 1st Half ML tomorrow, and considering adding more. Love Cleveland tomorrow. This game is their game 7, there is no way in the world they come back...

Here's my weekend summary.

MMA - The Bisping KO of Rockhold turned what would have been a profitable day into a horrible card for me.

NRL - Would have been a decent weekend (small profit)...

Pretty good weekend if not for the UFC yesterday...

I'm such a chump. Was so caught up in the UFC that I forgot to post my favourite play of the week which was Sharks ML at $1.90 for a large play....