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What it should be and what it will be are very different. Not that I think much is to be gained by talking about lines before they come out.

Lolwut?

You do realize that not every fight goes to the scorecards right?

Tell Rick Hawn that leg kicks have no value.

Absolutely, when I first started posting here it was to see if anyone was doing any work into it; I had just started working on modeling it myself, and wasn't getting much of anywhere.

The main...

And there's nothing wrong with that if your goal is to have some sweat on the fight and you can afford the stakes.

The problems come in when you think you're doing it 'professionally' but always...

It's never going to be as tight as baseball. Baseball is the chess of sportsbetting, its penetrating solved, there's a reason why matchbook can hang -101/-101 lines on that. I think it will be...

Agree, but I have said that.

What I meant is that you shouldn't be capping a fight based on the strengths of only one competitor. I think a lot of people who bet Mein never bothered to look into...

Having a lot of books available to you.

Several years.

B Quantitative sharps will enter the market. I've seen a few smart guys making an effort, to no avail yet, but it will come.

And also C, to some extent. There are a specific subset of lines...

I'm not saying handicapping isn't useful, it certainly is right now. MMA betting is sort of in a sweet spot right now, where its large enough that books are opening up decent limits, but small...

Being a good handicapper is the least important part of sportsbetting.

It's probably, the thing that gets the most people in trouble, in fact. Everyone thinks because they're a super-fan they...

There is a bit of a sounding board problem in this forum. I've found that the nights I do the absolute best are when everyone here gets slaughtered. Sounds dickish, but thats not my intention.

This really is the key to the entire thing. Professional gamblers don't feel like they have any control over how things turn out, they try to get the money in good, and then the decision making...

It's a strange pathos these guys have.

Day 1
"penetrate you guys, I'm the greatest MMA capper ever"

Day 30
"Does anyone know why I'm losing?"

Day 90
"Can I borrow some money? I promise...

I think you're right.

Some people when they can't succeed at something have to convince themselves that no one else can do it either.

Your misquote proves that you don't understand what Socrates meant.

For starters, it isn't about 'knowing outcomes' whatsoever, its about defining a reasonable range of probable outcomes and betting anything that falls outside of that range.

A good handicapper is...

I debated on giving you a serious answer, but then realized you're not smart enough to understand any of it.

I think you're right that no one is making "life-changing" money, because in order to...