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  1. Yup, there's your starting point. Suppose you...

    Yup, there's your starting point. Suppose you have data available for the 2008-2012 seasons, use only 2008-2010 to create your formula, then use week-by-week results from 2011 and 2012 for testing....
  2. As has been pointed out several times, no you...

    As has been pointed out several times, no you don't. You have said you went back to look at a past seasons, then used in-season data to tweak"forecasts." That's not how backtesting works. So you...
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