Yup, there's your starting point. Suppose you have data available for the 2008-2012 seasons, use only 2008-2010 to create your formula, then use week-by-week results from 2011 and 2012 for testing....
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Yup, there's your starting point. Suppose you have data available for the 2008-2012 seasons, use only 2008-2010 to create your formula, then use week-by-week results from 2011 and 2012 for testing....
As has been pointed out several times, no you don't. You have said you went back to look at a past seasons, then used in-season data to tweak"forecasts." That's not how backtesting works. So you...