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Thoughts on: Barao vs. Dillashaw

I think there's SLIGHT value on Dillashaw. GOOD value on Barao ITD. And good value on under 4.5.

First the safest bet:
I think this fight does NOT go past 4.5...

Best night of my life.

And I had an insane parlay that almost cashed.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kojywa8btmerwug/Screenshot%202014-05-11%2000.10.19.png

I did a mistake and took some...

I don't have time to do a bunch of write ups. So I'll just do 1 of them.

Barboza versus Cowboy


Striking: They're both 2 the best kickers in the division. However I think Barboza kicks a bit...

Nelson versus Nogueira

I have to say I was shocked when I saw the opening line. I really thought big Nog would come in as a favorite.

This is one of these fights where I only see two main...

Unfortunately -- I have not had time to put it in the work this week.

Couple of leans: Rua by dec. Henderson is too tough to finish.
Villante Dec.

For sure it is a line error hopefully they won't refund. I don't have any opinions on that fight at the moment.

Some early analysis on the Steven versus Rony Jason fight.

At first I thought I was going to pound the line for Rony into oblivion.

I looked at my ratings (Yes I have a 25 attribute score for...

My 3 "sure fire" bets cashed.

None of my value bets cashed. Retro-analysis: only Spencer had value.

Thanks. -- I will be wrong at times and I always try to learn and adjust from those mistakes. Unlike many muppets, I don't think I'm the greatest MMA capper of all times. That being said I do...

Another big value play I forgot to mention is: Spencer

If Garcia doesn't KO him in the 1st round (which I would say happens 20% of the time) -- I think Spencer would win the fight 45% of the time....

Here's a bold prediction that I'm going to put my money in:
I'm 90% sure that Scoggins wins EVERY FIGHT until he fights Dodson and/or Mighty Mouse. TOP 3 ALREADY.

BTW -- I made that prediction...

It was some of my Univ. text books and was thought in a "nervous system" class. Left those behind 17 years ago. lol
Don't have any links handy. I'm sure you could find it with some googling.
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There's a relatively well known correlation between skill and pressure in the athletics world. The higher the skill level... the more pressure helps them perform. The inverse is usually true as...

All my comments below in bold.

Most "sure fire bets" IMO for this card:

Scoggins -- the line moved a lot today and squeezed out a lot of the value. I capped him around -700 or so. Only way I see him losing is a freak injury....

I finally decided to have my own thread. Why not? I fully expect for Nunya Bidness to come tell me how wrong I am every once in a while. Still love the guy. And I expect many of you to come attack...