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alamo, auto-playing dogs has been a hi-variance golden-goose for me the last few years in NRL (Australian RugbyLeague)...that's 15 games a week's worth of hi-variance golden-goose...i thot' it would...

faaakkk....us (the poor good guys trying to make a few dinero) vs. them (the bastid books who don't like it when a few of "us" actually succeed at it)...

consider matchbook as well as...

since last update...surprisingly good numbers...
hit-mishit: 6-11
netted= +3.35u...vs. risked= 127u....yield= +2.64%

bringing new totals to something like
hits=293
mishits=377...

bang! (in praise of how emphatically it answers the question asked...i'm actually on the other side pre-match ML @2.44, and we're both too smart to say anything dumb like "the match will tell us who...

hrc, good luk to us on ivo...

i know u'r relying on pinnacle now...easily the single best book you can have...the only book that really won't cramp you if you're a winner

exchanges won't limit...

Cindy i wouldn't respond...plenty of 13-year-olds around this place

as to the ubiquity of all manner of non-textbook/un-"professional" behavior, look at the book Freakonomics...proves that it's commonplace, not just among atheletes (great early chapter on...

agree 100%...the trick/solution, of course is to BLIND (in the full sense of the word) follow HC...meaning just because you bet on something doesn't mean you have to watch/suffer through it...
...

in case ur in a hurry for an answr, i can tell you hc has answered this q several times in the past, so i can tell u that he sets approx. 1% of his starting ac as a unit...for you that'd be $5

HC, i've edited (mostly added to) my original post since you responded...

take a look at it again...

HC,

i recommend that you continue doing things EXACTLY as you're now doing...

a look at your ROI screams "it ain't broke"...so don't try to fix it...

not long ago i spreadsheeted each and...

HC, i just got me some Lopez @6.84 and Garcia @3.87 (both at Pinnacle, of course)

i have a feeling both are safe from being labeled by you as "whoreshit" odds...

you gotta know that Lopez has...

the answer is in the price...hc obviously thinks Berlok has a considerably better chance to win than the 17.09401__% chance buried in the odds (1/5.85)...i agree...

Berlok certainly not "likely"...

i do not/did not propose changing your current "1:st" notation...it's always been fine with me
(Occam's Razor= if it ain't broke...no need to fix it)

YOU suggested you'd make an effort to change...

i'd suggest "set1" as a crystal clear yet still efficient rendering of what you now designate as "1:st"

it could even be shortened to just s1 (a i do on my spreadsheets)...but idiots will always...

Thanks guys, for clarifying the confusing name-inconsistency with Cornet's opponent...so it's all down to a change in marital status...

with apologies for my bad spelling...seems SackaPooLover has...

What do you think of Garbage-vili at 2.60 ish over Berlok in the straight-up value department?

ARad had the exact same 24-conversion at the AO between the quarters (against Azarenka, if I recall)...and the semi's against Cibulkova (who had taken out Halep in her QFmatch)...

from female...

By that, oh pedantic one, you mean that ALL of the 5units you later specify for the same bet is IN...damn you're clever:wacko:

ultimately, i doubt if you or anyone else would actually take the...

i think the "(all in)" part is an attempt at hyperbolic humour.

At least that's how i took it...unless he's privvy to a mob-enforced fix on the match.

today's matchups...

Isner v. "Gulbis on steroids" (aka. Djokovic)

In-the-zone Dolgopolov v. "In-the-zone Dolgopolov on steroids" (aka Federer)

so far i have Isner ML and the TB,yes at 1.70/-143. The latter seems as close to a steal as you can get, based on historical frequencies (with the ridiculously small sample sizes we're forced to...

are u guys serious about considering a ML bet on djoker -654...of course, you're VERY likely to win..but it's precisely the habit of taking bets like this because they're very likely to hit that...

:an_light:only question is...how will they price the prop-bet on that near certainty...

the h2h screams out TB so loudly, the books may have to revise it to "number of tiebreaks o/u 1.5"

you talked me at-least into a play on Novak NOT...but i am unconflicted as to "how heavy"...as i decided long ago to not try to cap "confidence"= cap the capper...doing so just invites "Murphy's Law"...

at the time of the "all losses" post #600...the three plays posted directly above it...#597, 598 and 599 had not even begun yet...

if you're going to be a whiny twat, at least be an accurate whiny...

Hmmm...tailing HC, if you are HC might be problematic...HC would have to be especially careful to not stop quickly without warning you...:wacko:

you could, however, avoid these sorts of...

i've thot a ton and experimented a ton with all sorts of bet-sizing regimes over the last few years...

being an economist and noticing that countries that take a more simple (passive application...

depends on how well you "cap yourself" (aka. guage "confidence" or "estimate" EV)...i choose to eliminate this additional source of variance in favor of letting the odds (the single best estimator of...

Poet, something i've found that works very well in tailing this thread is to take each play TO WIN exactly the same amount...the amounts risked automatically adjust..more risked for those more likely...

Outstanding results AND record-keeping.

Go to players talk and see all the "I'm hitting 58%" chest-thumping threads.

You, on the other hand have the right attitude toward the importance of...

hope you're enjoying your time away, HC...i know i'm not the only one who appreciates the picks and the occasional refreshingly off-centre insights

tomorrow i'm on Sizzling (3.50) and Gulbis (2.73)

would have been SO nice if the kid could have forced a TB in the 2nd set...not so much to win...but to give me a chance to bail out and recover most of my stake...

note to self: this Daniel kid's...

daniel @ 9 - ____ units (5dimes)

i just put it in...and if the kid gets a half-assed start, could be some $ to harvest

if u fade every one of this thread's mostly-dog picks...you'll have a very impressive (well-above 50%) hit-rate

unfortunately, you'll also have a very depressing (well-below 0%) return

long...

I may not know you personally (and vice versa), but i do know the track-record of your ROI...so i'm generally happy on whatever side you're on.

Go Feds. I'm also on Cibulkova, 1st and ML (at 2.26...

I really like Federer at anything above 1.8333/-120. I even booked my play (at 1.89/-112) to win 2 (rather than the usual 1) unit(s).

Fed seems more "in the groove" than he's been in a long...

reminds me of one of my favorite quotations...

"Patriotism is the refuge of scoundrels."

:cheers: note to self: check out Nic pics as candidates for next avatar!

_____________

HC, nice hit so far on Robert...would be nice if Monfils has some more of that "magique francaise" for...

Thanks for the insight, HC...

I clearly meant "matches...sets...games" and not "matches...games...games"...in fact i'd just noticed and finished editing that second item before reading your...

#62, B-Agut has dominated #28 in H2H (4-1 in matches, 9-1 in sets, 63-44 in games) and 6-3, 6-4 just days ago in Auckland...

even at current 1.50-ish level, my uneducated eye sees some value in...

Yeah, just noticed the retirement of Hercog after just 1 game played.

1. from my watching this guy a handful of times over the last few months, seems to me that klahn has mental toughness-->consistency when the going gets tough and tough to break his serve...i predict...

HC, all of the dozen plays posted since the last update on post #190 have yet to be played yet, right...
and take place either tomorrow=Sunday...or the next day=Monday...

right? just confirming...

HC and other sharp thread-regs...a question

a play recommended by one of the tennis sharps over at tennis explorer reads:

wawrinka (1-8) @ 2.00 for the Sunday 19:00 matchup vs. Golubev

1. ...

keep up the good work pal, have so much faith in my favorite atheist play-caller...that i even tail on...gulp!...WTA:grrr:

Fucsovic...ya' gott love that name eh? in case he tanks just put the word "that" in front of his name and you're in auto-curse mode...altho that'd be harsh on the poor guy, who's had to live with...

HC, chekkin in to make sure i get my daily betpoints...and to ask the important question...

does anyone in tennis (not just women's tennis) groan with each and every shot in such an annoying way...

damn, now that's something useful to know...that i bet a surprising number of tennis bettors don't know...

these sorts of motivational factors, affecting financial and/or reputation/legacy...

that registered too...between 25th and 56th you really couldn't slide a piece of paper between the skill levels...
but the difference between a 28yo successful campaigner and an 8-years-younger...