Search:

a) I said no such thing.

b) You can repeat this another 50 times and it still will not be true. Volatility is a function of the amounts wagered and variance, that's all.

If I am offered +115 on...

Just so I have your position straight, what you are saying is that a staking plan

a) Based on Kelly which results in an average wager size of 3% or BR

will produce significantly steeper run ups...

That is completely your choice but does not change the fact that what you said starting in post #2 was incorrect.

I have never been an arbitageur. I do engage in trading in addition to regular...

Again, all of this is also true with flat betting.

For the third time the severity of run ups and drawdowns experienced as a result of variance are almost wholly dependant on the size of the bets...

All of which is also true with flat betting.
Try it out, enter a flat bet stake of 5% in any of the sims posted above and see what happens in terms of the severity of run ups and drawdowns! Make it...

No, not necessarily.



Would be true only if edge was known. What these simulations do is help to put some perspective on the margin of error in edge calculations that can be 'absorbed' before...

That is always going to be the case as long as the average wager size is bigger. If you were to increase the flat betting percentage to the 2.5-3.0% range you would see similar peaks/troughs.

Thanks Monkey.

I did something similar myself a few years back.