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people in here are supposed to be smart but I guess I was wrong, all I did was point out the obvious, but people choose to disregard it as non sense because it messes up their world view

I hate...

that is not exactly what I am saying

all I am saying is that varying betsize according to edge will increase variance because ultimately your calculations cannot not be accurate

:+clueless


no, I am saying that using inaccurate calculations of edge will do that

you just said it yourself, kelly uses AVERAGE, AVERAGE , AVERAGE, which means that you could be betting max...

no it is correct, using subjective estimates in place of what should be a precise figure increases variance, its common sense, even the simulations the op run indicate that


but I will never...

yes I cannot quantify my edge accurately, and that makes me a pragmatist


does believing you can quantify your edge make you right? no it does not, only when someone provides a method of...

yes, because you dont know what that figure really is


trying to calculate an incalculable number is something that boggles my mind

although I am sure that people that do use kelly believe...

:+clueless

how does that change the fact that by incorporating edge into your calculation, you increase variance?

in flat betting, variance manifests itself only by convergence to the mean in...

how is that good insight? all he did was state the obvious, if you flat bet at 5% or 10% then your balance will reach zero at some point, no shit shirlock

you will go broke with kelly as well if...

I disagree

kelly increases variance by a lot more


first off you have variance regarding your handicapping, which evens out in both kelly and flat betting


but in kelly you have additional...

good job sir

it seems to me that kelly increases variance, makes the highs higher and the lows lower