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it is an interesting feature, but basically mimics the closing odds once they are known (ie even odds horse has a 50% chance if its anywhere near the front, and that opinion lasts for much of the...

"My guess would be that the 2% of winners are either limited or asked to leave over time. "

they are only limited in the sense that once you hit a certain profit level (I think its like $250,000)...

I appreciate the detailed response, and can definitely see the value in knowing if a favorite is more or less likely (based on their history, if there is such) to mount a comeback from 5th or 6th...

It's important to note that Betfair is strictly a middleman, they have no stake in the outcome - they just collect commissions. All these bets are real-time 'me vs. you' judgments. I think in-play...

The in-race betting that Betfair (and Orbit and others) offers might sound intriguing but it has a big problem: those offering the bets seem to think that 1 second out of the gate every horse is...

the easy conclusion is that Betfair is correct (explaining the break-even after 353 bets, betting randomly at essentially BSP). In that case there is no area to exploit: the locals are just 'wrong'...

I would say my only disagreement with your philosophy is that each bet is made manually and the individual losses begin to mount psychologically. Probability says it should all 'work out in the end'...

I had been puzzled till today why I had not had a bad day (have had bad losing streaks, but always wins to rescue the situation). Considering these are high odds (for me) bets, I should have had a...

"Your study could show that when a horse is a very low odds favorite, the value could be in some of the other odds within the race and when the favorites are all higher prices the value could be in...

turns out that the Betfair partnership at Monmouth resulted in a 12% commission coming out of winning bets (compared to 2 or 3% at Betfair and Orbit). So there was little incentive for using the...

If Betfair has the correct (higher) odds compared to the local bettors (lower payout), then the local bettors are over-estimating the horses chances (example: Betfair believes predicting a dice roll...

Betfair (and Orbit - which is also an Exchange, mostly used by Asian bettors since they are the exchanges used by AsianConnect and BetInAsia - it uses Betfair odds but creates its own liquidity...

question: Local bettors or Betfair ? In an ideal situation of 'true' odds (forget tote odds), what population of bettors would you think is coming up with the 'right' odds for a horse? Say there's...