04-01-09, 01:11 AM
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#1
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Tsonga vs. Djokovic: Miami Vice
Lock it down baby. Djokovic could have the "due factor" in his favor, but it's hard to look past Tsonga beating him four straight times since September. Surface is different than the indoor courts that Tsonga has won on previously, but Tsonga hadn't had a break against him until the Simon match on Tuesday. And he still dispatched Simon relatively easily in 3 sets are losing a tie break in the first. Djokovic hasn't been tested a bit this week in his three matches. Perhaps like Indian Wells where Djokovic cruised into the quarters and got crushed by Roddick in straights.
The recipe is easy here. If Tsonga has his serve winning over 80% of his 1st serves and more than 50% of his 2nds as it has all week in Miami, Djokovic will need to play an almost perfect match to knock him off. He could do it of course, filled with the talent, but the price for me makes me love Tsonga something retarded. The fact that Tsonga is at plus money as of this moment ....
I'll let Djokovic prove me wrong at the price of +110-130 on Tsonga right now depending on your book. If you're inclined to like it, I'd grab it as early as possible as I would expect sharper minds to buy in on the Frenchman on Wednesday.
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04-01-09, 09:13 AM
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#2
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got tsonga at +120, however the fact that majority is picking him scares me. i have him going to the final in my atp world tour challange, beating djok and federer, so might as well back him up with some cash.
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04-01-09, 12:00 PM
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#3
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I remember thinking the same when they met last time. That Djokovic was due and too many are on Tsonga. Like I said, if Djokovic steps up and beats him - so be it, but the price for someone who dominated the other guy was great if you got it early. My book had Tsonga at -120 at last check from +110 last night.
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04-01-09, 02:18 PM
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#4
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The h2h isn't enormously helpful imo. Djokovic isn't nearly as good indoors , while two of those matches were in France, and the Masters Cup meeting was a dead rubber as Djoko had already qualified.
Tsonga was also really awful vs Andreev last week, while Djokovic seems to have recovered form in Miami after a nightmare in IW - he said last night his form was the best he's had all year.
Personally I make this 55/45 in Djoko's favour, so odds about right.
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04-01-09, 02:28 PM
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#5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW
The h2h isn't enormously helpful imo. Djokovic isn't nearly as good indoors , while two of those matches were in France, and the Masters Cup meeting was a dead rubber as Djoko had already qualified.
Tsonga was also really awful vs Andreev last week, while Djokovic seems to have recovered form in Miami after a nightmare in IW - he said last night his form was the best he's had all year.
Personally I make this 55/45 in Djoko's favour, so odds about right.
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I am just hoping it is going to be a good match, it is about to start, got most of my work done so ready to enjoy a web broadcast. |
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04-01-09, 03:12 PM
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#6
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Tsonga's 2nd serve is horrible today. If he doesn't step it up, he's toast. I agree the indoor court does make it a little more difficult to gauge, but this Miami court isn't the fastest from what I've read this week.
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04-01-09, 03:20 PM
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#7
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Hoping Tsonga wakes up in the 2nd set. This first set, his serve hasn't been good enough.
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04-01-09, 03:54 PM
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#8
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This is all over but the crying. Tsonga picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue. His serve has failed him miserably. Damn shame he didn't at least make Novak work for this. Time to move on to the next one.
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04-01-09, 04:08 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
This is all over but the crying. Tsonga picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue. His serve has failed him miserably. Damn shame he didn't at least make Novak work for this. Time to move on to the next one.
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Yeah, this one seems to be over,  luckily I have a small bet on the Djoker.
I have missed a lot of the matches this week and could use your opinions on Roddick/Federer. I'm thinking Federer -3.5 but please give me your takes on the game.  |
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04-01-09, 04:12 PM
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#10
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I had Federer pegged to win the tournament, so I still like him. I think Roddick makes it close though. Dunno. Probably would go for over on total games if your book allows that. Wouldn't pay steep juice on Fed.
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04-01-09, 04:17 PM
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#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
I had Federer pegged to win the tournament, so I still like him. I think Roddick makes it close though. Dunno. Probably would go for over on total games if your book allows that. Wouldn't pay steep juice on Fed.
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Ok, thanks!
Djokovic is struggling in the heat now. 
Oh man, this is not over yet.  |
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04-01-09, 06:11 PM
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#12
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I'll go for the over22 for fed-rod, if Rod serves first. Fed consistently does nothing in hard/indoors masters, hasn't made a final since madrid2007, and he lost that as well.
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04-02-09, 12:22 AM
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#13
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Saw the last game of Tsonga-Dhjokovic and Novak looked dog ass tired. Federer should eat him up. If that doosh ever learned to condition himself to the elements, he might be a threat to Nadal. If he doesn't learn after his Aussie Open puss out for next season, he never will.
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04-02-09, 09:46 AM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
Saw the last game of Tsonga-Dhjokovic and Novak looked dog ass tired. Federer should eat him up. If that doosh ever learned to condition himself to the elements, he might be a threat to Nadal. If he doesn't learn after his Aussie Open puss out for next season, he never will.
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the last 4-5 games of the second set was a drama not seen since gadio vs. coria french open final, i dont think djokster was tired, i think he was really nervious trying to close out the match, if that was the case against not so accomplished tsonga, i can imagine what kind of thoughts will be going thru his mind when he player federer who has a 7-2 record against him. at around -220 federer worth the shot. |
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04-02-09, 01:40 PM
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#15
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It wasn't tiredness, he was unwell before - I was lipreading what the trainer was saying, was something about Djoko puking in the morning. More generally there's something screwed with his physical conditioning, this just happens far too often.
Fed wasn't exactly impressive vs RoboRod either, but that was mainly down to losing his focus when winning easily. I doubt that'll happen against someone like Djokovic, who he regards as a serious challenger.
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