[tbill11]

Hey guys, I've followed tennis on and off and am beginning to get more interested, which leads me to ask the question of how you all cap it? Personally, I just look at how the play performs on surfaces, in H2Hs against opponents, and recent performances. There has to be much more to it than that though! Let's hear some strategies so that maybe I can make some money

[DimOK]

h2h sucks, really.

It's all about styles and level of play quality each player can produce. And how they work on this or that surface in this or that situation.

Like low-ranked inform big server would have an easy time against higher ranked outofform baseliner on indoor, just because his serve will get him too much free points, while opponent's mistakes will give a lot of break opportunities.

So just learn about main aspects of play (serve, leg speed, stamina, intelligence on court, psychological stability and some others), get an idea how they work against each other on different surfaces and in the end you'll probably get what you want

[rumple]

Cant win at tennis.

[hangar22]

there is a lot of value in underdogs. do the research that you normally do but keep an eye out for the underdog and you can find some great value.

[Jive]

Learn what players play like on different surfaces and in different parts of the world; see who serves well and returns well; take into account who has been playing well and who has been struggling (and remember to factor in lack of rest for those who have been winning and playing many matches). You also need to have an idea of which of these non-major tournaments are important, because the top players don't seem to give a crap at a lot of these events. You can generally tell which tournaments will bring out the best efforts of the big names by looking at the field. If you see a lot of the top 10-15 in the draw, you can assume the better players will bring their A games (or at least try to). If you see a tournament where there are only a handful of the top players in it, you can figure on there being some good value in underdogs as some players don't give a flip at these events.

It may be a little different, but for me, one of the best ways to make money in tennis is to find players who have inflated odds and bet against them virtually EVERY match. There are dozens of players who fit into this category, including several who are in the top 10. I know over the course of the last year if you had bet against Tsonga, Venus, Dementieva, Jankovic, etc every time they set foot on the court you would have enjoyed significant success. Even betting against Federer every match would have left you slightly in the plus over the last year. While there are top players who fit into this category, a majority of the players to fade are the more well known 2nd and 3rd tier guys and ladies (like Blake, Ivanovic, Robredo, Gilles Simon).

And my personal rule: Even though I love a lot of them, never trust the Russian women. They are all either wildly inconsistent or just plain crazy and can tank at any moment.

[alias69]

And my personal rule: Even though I love a lot of them, never trust the Russian women. They are all either wildly inconsistent or just plain crazy and can tank at any moment.

[DimOK]

lol, you don't trust like 1/4 of WTAtour There is 16 girls who speak and think in Russian in TOP-50 and 20+ in Top-100

[RogueScholar]

Pay attention to recent performance above all else, and stay aware of each player's individual motivations, whether it be to collect appearance fees or to fight for Slam seeding. Get involved in a tennis handicapping community, there are a few sites to choose from and witnessing their handicapping discussions will teach you more than you ever thought possible. SBR's tennis crowd is a little to quiet for a newbie to learn much.

[tbill11]

Thanks for coming in here and giving that utterly useless opinion warriorfan.

Oh and RogueScholar, what are the capping sites that you usually look at?

[RogueScholar]

I've been using TennisInsight for over a year now, I haven't found anything to equal it as far as numbers-based handicapping goes. Menstennisforum is a hugely active forum with truly knowledgeable people, and they have incredible insight into the fundamentals of the match, who needs more ranking points, which tourneys certain players prefer and gossip about how they're behaving when not on the court. Matchstat is a good free site to follow doubles, challengers, and futures. TalkTenis would be the last place I mention, they are connected to a tennis e-retailer, but they have some good posters there that you won't find anywhere else. I generally give them a read before I place outright wagers, their broad-sweeping insights are most useful for them.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Well worth buying oncourt. Just the basic mass data manipulation you can do alone is worth it - eg defne a category of player (defensive, flat hitter, serve/volley etc) and see how your guy does against them.

Tennisinsight is well worth having if you're willing to take the time to understand sublte differences in stats. As a historical record of form it's unbeatable too - for example, a loss 4 years ago over a lower level player could be extrmely unimpressive, or it could be just the opponent was on fire. Only a constantly updated formtracker let's you see that at a glance.


The major problem with tennis is only pinnacle have decent low juice. Other books occasionally are slow to move and might have better numbers at any point in time, but they'll all boot you soon enough if you play them. Worth using matchbook at the bigger tournaments, and betfair (until you get hit by premium charge).

[ringemup]

there is a lot of value in underdogs. do the research that you normally do but keep an eye out for the underdog and you can find some great value.

haha u gotta be very very careful when targeting dogs in tennis, take the wrong player n u r screwed

[Tsonga]

good tips here...tennis-insight is a great site for stats. fading the big guys is a great strategy.

[Glitch]

different players have different types of edges from finesse shots and the ability to strike winners and others are just athletically superior (stronger, more agile, more endurance) i try to match up peoples strengths against other peoples' weaknesses. some are way more mentally sound than their opponent.

i try to avoid same country vs. same country- a lot of times these guys/girls are friends and they would let their opponent win OR the underdog whos not as good has practiced with them numerous times and knows their weaknesses.

looking at how they perform and how they have performed recently on different surfaces is good too for sure. for this, i use matchstat.com