I would only look at recent head to head (2009). I would toss the retirement for purposes of the head to head, so that you only have head-to-head real matches. That yields a 2-2 record between the two. Much more important for me is recent performance, and not just the last match they each played.
Soderling has lost to Ginepri and Granollers. Davy has beaten Verdasco, Fed and stole a set from Nadal. Look at the YTD stats going into Rotterdam. 1st serve - 68% Davy, 61% Soderling, Service Games Won 82% Davy, 71% Sodes.... I don't need to list them but every single stat is in Davy's favor year to date.
Transition to Rotterdam. I will give you the Benneteau dismantling, it was impressive and evokes some confidence in the Swede but any top ten player should be able to hurt a 40 ranked player like that, and Davy hasn't exactly been struggling to this point. In fact Davy's handling of Marcros (who I think I give more credence than you do as well so it makes sense we split even more here) gives me more confidence than Sodes over Benneteau.
Sure I wish I got the line as I original saw it out of Stanjames (Davy -149) but I will take him at -178 as I got him at
5Dimes. These two might split any given meeting making it profitable to bet on the dog. However, the YTD stats clearly show that Davydenko is up to speed while Sodes is still warming up. The win over Benneteau isn't enough to show me that Sodes is cranking either.. I'll stick to the featherweight Ruski.