One way to win betting tennis
You bet the dogs, but you do it selectively, and the main thing...FOLLOW INJURIES. Tennis obviously is one on one and injuries play a much bigger part of the game. But the lines don't reflect it sometimes. Guys like Roddick with little tweaks, and Nadal with his tendenitis. Murray should have been a -180 or so in that match. Nadal was seeded higher and public all over him so Murray was only -120 to -130. Also many people bet tennis who don't know anything about it. It really helps to have played the game in tournament settings.
It is easy to follow the injuries in the majors because you have to win 7 matches to win it all, and if you watch, you can see who is healthy and who is going to have potential problems down the stretch. Unlike in say basketball, one player who has a "tweak small injury" isn't nearly as big as it is in tennis, when you have nobody to rely on but yourself.
Watch the tournaments. It very rarely shapes out the way it should. Dogs win a lot. Serena Williams yesterday was a -400 favorite by match time and she could barely walk. How she won the match was unreal, she basically just got in a zone and hit every ball as hard as she could, going for winners, and luckily for her she finally hit that zone down 4-0 in the 2nd and already down 1 set. She should have lost that match though but the girl she was playing took her foot off the gas and got timid, scared to try to close it.
Djokovic tried the same thing at the end of the 4th and in the 5th set. He just hit out for winners and Tsonga ate him up. It usually doesn't work to try to end points quick unless you are in some unreal zone like Serena got in.
Serena's footwork was horrible, typical of an injured player. Now she has to bounce back today and play another match. I would think she is going to advance to the finals but a healthy, rested Henin will be there waiting for her, and Williams will probably be favored there. I would take a shot at Henin, depending on what the price is. She will be the dog, unless Serena really has a close match with the 28 YO woman from China and shows a major injury problem. Don't forget that Henin is one of the best woman players for the past 10 years. She has won many many majors.
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, if Williams can make it through tomorrow with her niggles. Otherwise we're looking at Henin Vs China 
Originally Posted by kingsr
