I'm leaning more towards Garcia-Lopez for this match, I watched the game vs Tursunov and Berdych was shaky, got broken early and managed to break back directly after that to win the first then almost the same scenario repeated for set 2 but managed to break back a bit later on to win it 7-5. In general if Tursunov was causing him problems I'm thinking an in-form Garcia-Lopez should be able to at least cover the +4.5. Probably the best bet for me on this match is the over 20.5 games.
I do not really know if you should judge him by the first game it's his first game on clay since July 2013.
On the other hand,GGL played a lot of tennis recently, he won Casablanca a few days ago,but to be honest, he did not impress me at all, it was thanks to the choking of his opponents and not because of his finest tennis game.
IMO,GGL will be gassed and Birdman will be much more stable in his serves game than vs Tur. and after he will win the 1st set,GGL will take out his white flag. 2:0 @ 1.73 look soild.