1. #1
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Home Country Unseeded Challenger System 2014..

    Going to see how this goes..Last year the ROI was good until I left off..Will be using Bovada and 5 dimes..5 dimes usually better for dogs and bovada for small favs or pick em generally..

    Filters below

    1. Look at draw of 32 to see who is from the host country of challenger of event.
    2.Eliminate all qualies,seeded,wildcards,provisional, lucky losers..etc..only unseeded run of the mill regulars good enough to get in on ranking with no goddam help or special circumstances..
    3. Unseeded cannot play other players from the same country, have to be from different country.
    4..All plays are 1 unit risk..

    Theory's on this..
    Home advantage due to travel,familiarity of surface, crowd support over the long haul will give us an advantage to scratch out a profit...

    Last years thread link before I quit in July..http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/tennis-bet...engers-p4.html

    Today..

    Romboli -110(bovada)
    Pererira +495..5 dimes
    Capedeville(-115) bovada

    I tracked last year and it was 107-89 overall w/l...and betting wise it was 28-21 +7.15 units.. 78.1 units staked with +10.92% ROI..

    NOTE: This week those players have been losing their ass off,but starting tracking today since we are getting into the meat of challenger season with 3-4 per week..
    Last edited by beefcake; 04-16-14 at 08:12 AM.

  2. #2
    matt1216
    matt1216's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-11
    Posts: 14,683
    Betpoints: 1052

    I got duckworth today.. He looked great yesterday plus I like to consider the expensive plane flight theory. He should be fighting hard to make some money back

  3. #3
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Two quick losses..Its a LONG marathon, not a 100 meter dash..Last year we had good weeks of 9-3 and shit weeks of 1-5..

    Lets see if old man Capedeville has some pepper on home soil...Good luck with your play matt..one of us will win!!!

  4. #4
    fcmb
    fcmb's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-02-14
    Posts: 628
    Betpoints: 6189

    Zverev M , Ciric , Saretta , Wang T..

    Those dogs could make a surprise today

  5. #5
    matt1216
    matt1216's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-11
    Posts: 14,683
    Betpoints: 1052

    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Two quick losses..Its a LONG marathon, not a 100 meter dash..Last year we had good weeks of 9-3 and shit weeks of 1-5..

    Lets see if old man Capedeville has some pepper on home soil...Good luck with your play matt..one of us will win!!!
    Good luck as well man.

  6. #6
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    0-3 -3.25 units...


    Poblidnik-castillo tomorrow.Last man standing till next week..+190 already..will wait for better price.

  7. #7
    brodie
    you got the juice now
    brodie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-25-13
    Posts: 2,212
    Betpoints: 416

    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    0-3 -3.25 units...


    Poblidnik-castillo tomorrow.Last man standing till next week..+190 already..will wait for better price.
    hmm... i dont know if this guy can beat kudla

  8. #8
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    +220 is the price....

  9. #9
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    1-3 -1.05 units..Pop gets it done.Will be playing him vs Schwank again..

    4.25 units risked ROI is -12.5%

  10. #10
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Hans Podlipnik-Castillo +140..

  11. #11
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    winner again..

    2-3 +0.35 units

    5.25 units risked..ROI is -9.3%

  12. #12
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Hans Podlipnik-Castillo +180..Tough task vs Duckworth..but we play em all..

  13. #13
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
    Hardcoar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-13
    Posts: 15,606
    Betpoints: 4615

    Isn't the ROI +6.7%??

  14. #14
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Math guru that I am..Refresh my memory on how to calculate with these numbers above hardcore..thanks!!

  15. #15
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
    Hardcoar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-13
    Posts: 15,606
    Betpoints: 4615

    I figured ROI is results proportionate to total stake:

    .035/5.25 = ~0.667 -> 6.7 %

    It cannot be negative if you're up overall.

    Maybe you're using some other measurement than what I have in mind, though.

  16. #16
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Yeah was using a investment formula..

  17. #17
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Well, that sucks Podlip retired...was up a break and lost it then quit.Anyone know what happened?

    PUSH...Thats it mates, see you sunday night or Monday for the 4 upcoming tourneys..

  18. #18
    brodie
    you got the juice now
    brodie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-25-13
    Posts: 2,212
    Betpoints: 416

    great call on hans didnt see him beating either of those guys

  19. #19
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Here is who we are playing to start off..No prices yet..

    Shenzen..
    Zhang..zemlja has not played in forever..
    WUU,DI..lacko sucks balls

    Vercelli..
    Cecchinato..Plays brown if he wins...NO!!!
    Arnaboldi..typical italian stiff..oh boy

    Santos..
    Dutra Silva..playing a qualie..price will be high

    Savannah
    Reynolds
    Williams
    Both lost in first round in sarasota..good motivation to play well I hope.
    Last edited by beefcake; 04-20-14 at 07:40 AM.

  20. #20
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Zhang -220..(5 dimes)
    Last edited by beefcake; 04-21-14 at 07:39 AM.

  21. #21
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Zhang is a winner

    Rest of today..

    Reynolds +210(5 dimes)

    WUU +178(5 dimes)
    Last edited by beefcake; 04-21-14 at 12:28 PM. Reason: book

  22. #22
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Yeah baby...BOBBY!!! Hasnt won a clay match since my son who is 2 was born...Wouldn't ya know!! People took it in the ass with VEIC..

  23. #23
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Rest for Tuesday..

    R.Williams -150
    Arnaboldi +120


    Dr Silva -700

    Will update record and ROI on Tues
    Last edited by beefcake; 04-22-14 at 05:18 AM.

  24. #24
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Silva doing his best to set us back 10 days..

  25. #25
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Silva just anally raped me(us) with Kitty litter as lube..

  26. #26
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Silva ..loss
    Williams loss
    Zhang win
    Reynolds win
    arnaboldi ..win
    wuu ..loss

    overall 5-6 -4.85 units

    19 units risked..ROI -25.5 %% Thank you Silva..

  27. #27
    Cappinpicks
    Cappinpicks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 14,986
    Betpoints: 48

    how bad is shit williams, wow

  28. #28
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    zhang -375

    Cecchinato -475

  29. #29
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    two winners so far

    rest of today..

    Ghem +130..bovada
    Reynolds +175..5 dimes

  30. #30
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    7-8 -4.85 units

    29.5 units risked.. -16.4% Roi

  31. #31
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Today..

    Cecchinato +105..bovada
    Arnaboldi -150..5 dimes


    Zhang tonight..

  32. #32
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Faded brown as well..Nice win for the italian! If potato head wins we will not play cecch next round..

  33. #33
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    9-8 -2.80..Almost there..

    ROI is 31.55 units staked...-8.87%

  34. #34
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Zhang +220

  35. #35
    EaglesPhan36
    EaglesPhan36's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-06
    Posts: 71,662

    Groove on Brother Beefcake

1234 Last
Top