[ryanvick]

Maybe I have been lucky, but I have been betting chalk profitably for the past week, took Kohlschreiber @ -850 today but was cancelled due to Ret. The 5Dimes line moved all the way to -1000 at one point.

Just wondering, I realize with one loss you are set back a ton, but, selectively taking chalk, is it possible to be successful in the long run? I occasionally play a dog or a close match, but for the most part I pick 2-3 matches/day in the -350 to -600 range.

Thoughts appreciated, will be nice to hear the warnings before I tank my whole 6k roll, looking @

Monfils (-650) / Garcia-Lopez @ 1115 am : Youzhny (-450) / Golubev @ 12pm : Stepanek (-550) / Gil @ 130 : Simon (-580) / Bolelli @ 2pm

Will probably play up to 2 of these, or maybe I've been so lucky to not take a beat I should just stop betting tennis.

[RobbReport]

stay away from below top 30 is all I have to say.

[GoldRush7]

When playing favorites I personally try to make sure when I make a play that I am getting as close to even odds as possible..that way if I do lose it, it ends up not killing my bank. Keep in mind you can easily hit a dog play that pays 2-3x your money(if not more), and it happens frequently... rarely do I ever risk more than 2-3 units just to win 1 unit on heavy favs... so if you are making a 2-3 person parlay with heavy chalk make sure you aren't having to risk your ass just to make a unit.... Just my 2 cents.. good luck with whatever plays you choose

[ryanvick]

thanks for the input, hopefully I don't learn my lesson by losing...

2U Youzhny -500 12pm

[ryanvick]

+ 2U

Continuing
2U on Stepanek -600, gl

[ryanvick]

Total for the day: +4U....

am I just playing with fire?
It's not hard to get lucky for a few weeks I'm assuming, all it takes is for 2 losses in one week as huge favs to kill the roll, and I guess those happen even if you're being selective.

[GoldRush7]

so to win 4 units you had to lay 22 units according to the chalk of those lines? Yes, that is playing with fire

[ryanvick]

Originally Posted by GoldRush7

so to win 4 units you had to lay 22 units according to the chalk of those lines? Yes, that is playing with fire

Yeah, exactly, it's killing me everytime I bet it. Unit=100, but everytime I don't bet on them I feel like I'm giving away money because I've been tracking certain big fav's for a while and they've hit at a +EV rate.

And retirement in the second set doesn't count as a loss for me, so that means if a fav loses then they really got beat.

I am extremely worried about losing 2-3 within a small timeframe though. Does anyone know any sites that backlog tennis odds for over a year or so? Maybe I just hit this during a good stretch. I might lay low w/ huge favs until I get more data (wiser), or just keep plugging away (degen).

[Ulver86]

laying big chalk is very risky (especially if you are trying to win 2 or 3 units, there are only a handful of players I would ever lay big chalk with (-500 and up)

basically Nadal on clay is the only FOR SURE bet I'd ever make, though with his injuries and etc. now that's very risky if its really really big chalk