We know Federer is going to win at -450
But how about Federer NOT winning 3-0 for -165. I think Djokovic can win at least one set, cant he???
Anyone else like that bet and odds?
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He'll probably win, but one of these days Novak has to show up in top form and act the part of an elite player.
It looks good on paper, but if Fed gets off to a good start it will be a dogfight for Novak to stay in the match. Federer will have a much easier time holding serve, and figures to have more chances to break.
5 of 8 of Roger's wins against Novak have been in straights (3 of these 5 being in best of 5 tournaments). So far Fed has dropped one to Lleyton and one to Soderling. Here is what he has dropped in the open the past 4 years:
2008 - 2 to andreev, 1 to novak
2007 - 1 to isner, 1 to lopez, 0 to novak
2006 - 1 to blake, 1 to roddick
2005 - 1 to keifer, 1 to hewitt, 1 to agasi
We are talking an average of 2.5 sets dropped per US Open.
Though I do believe Novak is improving and Federer is losing more simply b/c people have played him more often, I don't think I would pay more than -110 for Fed in more than 3 sets. He sometimes mixes his game when he plays opponents out of the top 20, that is not the case here and I would expect him to bear down on Novak here.
Just my $.02
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I say fed 3-1
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I would take Djokovic to win a set.
I'm taking Djokovic to win, simply because he has the ability to do so.
He likely won't win, but it's worth a shot in my opinion.
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Over 38 games I like in this one. Djokovic will make Fed work, but will fail I believe in the end in 4. Would like to see 5.
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