[SBR Lou]

Federer -275
vs J.M Del Potro

I really, REALLY think this line closes over -300 at Pinnacle. Furthermore, this line will be ridiculous at recreational shops, so don't even bother taking a look at it unless you're lowering your stake size.

You might remember Federer defeating Del Potro 63 60 60 in the Aussie, and also for being 5-0 lifetime versus the youngster, which is kind of irrelevant because of Potro's youth in some of those matches. Even still, he's quite young and certainly outclassed against Federer, but he figures to give a better account of his skill in this match than in years past.

I still don't think all of the above will be enough for him to grab even a set against the 13 time Slam winner. The path is totally clear for Fed.

PLAYS FOR SEMI FINALS
Federer -275 *2 units*
Gonzalez -125 *1 unit*
Stosur +4.5 +113 *1 unit*
Stosur OVER 20.5 +103 *1 unit*
Cibulkova +465 *1 unit*

[yisman]

I think Federer will beat Del Potro as well.

I would suggest parlaying the Stosur plays, if possible.

[RogueScholar]

Hey Lou, why do you even mention unit sizes when you refuse to keep an accurate season record on the forum anymore? Are those to aid Yisman in his tracking of your plays?

[SBR Lou]

Quickly moved to -286 at Pinny. On the way up.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think the Federer line will get hammered hard early based on today's match, but I won't be surprised to see it move back some with people seeing Del Potro and a #5 next to him in the rankings thinking he has a shot to win. Outside of the Gonzalez-Soderling match, I'll probably be playing set bets the rest of the way through with the inflated favorites prices that are going to be on the board.

[SBR Lou]

I agree. -275 was great.

At -304 now.

Where's taco?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

This is going to be -400 :-)


Stilllll ...... there's something, just something I don't like here though. Potro's serve worries me, because of the terrific bounce height he gets on it - and Federer hasn't been returning well this week at all (look at the trouble he had with the Haas serve). In the rallying matchup issues, it's easy to see Potro's defence getting exposed, Fed bothering him with that low short slice etc. However if he's ambitious on attack, he can also trouble Federer, particularly with the enormous cross court forehand into the corner - not sure Fed can defend well against that on fast clay.

Of course he probably won't be ambitious, but I think that potential is there. If he falls back in his base instincts of mindlessly slugging the ball to the central 2/3 alley of the court, he'll get crushed.


Their last meeting in Madrid was interesting-ish, but Fed won with a single break in each set, and Potro was unable to get into the match, missing all 4bps. However, his serve was poor that day. What happens if it's firing? It's a monstrous weapon, and when directed at a single-handed backhand it's nearly unreturnable with the bounce on Chatrier.


I think if I was to bet on Fed, I'd go for the -1.5 set handicap, maybe get -140/-150 or so. If Potro makes it closer, and starts to believe, the value on Fed maybe disappears (just as Potro stayed competitive and then beat Nadal in Miami). He's been pretty horrendous this last week when opponents serve well and attack him, and it's not inconceivable there could be similar trouble in store here.


I guess, to be blunt, I've become a Fed sceptic. Haas, Acasuso, PHM all really bothered him. Monfils held serve for the first set, but after winning the tiebreak Fed got his confidence and was comfortable. As a frontrunner he's fine .......... but what if he goes behind?

[tacomax]

I agree. -275 was great.

At -304 now.

Where's taco?

My prediction of this line using the patented CrazyL SISO system is -1850.

[SBR Lou]

PLAYS FOR SEMI FINALS
Federer -275 *2 units*
Gonzalez -125 *1 unit*
Stosur +4.5 +113 *1 unit*
Stosur OVER 20.5 +103 *1 unit*
Cibulkova +465 *1 unit*

2-1 on WTA, Stosur +4.5 +113 & Over 20.5 +103 hit, and Cibulkova lost.

Yisman?

[mathdotcom]

Congrats crazy. Just need to win 7-8 more bets and you'll have made up for the -900 beating.

[yisman]

I'm tracking

[Shark79]

I see Del Potro vs Gonzo final match.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Looking like temps will be a fair bit lower. That favours Fed imo, cos it'll lessen the bounce off Potro's serve, and more generally Fed is much stronger on slow clay than Potro (witness the numerous Hamburg wins).

I went on Fed-1.5 sets, got -125 on that, way higher than I figured.

[SBR Lou]

Over -320 at pinny

-335 at CRIS

[pimike]

350 at cw

[MartinBlank]

Looking like temps will be a fair bit lower. That favours Fed imo, cos it'll lessen the bounce off Potro's serve, and more generally Fed is much stronger on slow clay than Potro (witness the numerous Hamburg wins).

I went on Fed-1.5 sets, got -125 on that, way higher than I figured.

The hotter/faster the court, the better it is for Federer. A slow court will give DP any chance he has at winning.

[pimike]

The hotter/faster the court, the better it is for Federer. A slow court will give DP any chance he has at winning.

True.

[hoopster42]

I see Del Potro vs Gonzo final match.

i see soderling vs fed, actually

soderling is on fire and ko'ed the 4 time champ then beat down a hot davydenko

fed owns del potro

much much much better chance of fed v soderling than anything else i think

i know gonzo is favored over soderling but i think the wrong guy is favored

[SBR Lou]

hoopster,
What are the current odds on Fed and compare to original post sir.

[SBR Lou]

-360 at CRIS

[j0hnnyv]

I got -281 last nite on matchy.....-325 now and was -345 a little bit ago....and i wasnt even trying to be smart I thought he played this morning so I locked it in....soooo glad I did!

Now all he has to do is WIN

[Wheell]

Federer will win. Only Soderling can beat Federer here, and that is only if he really has made the jump to an elite player on clay. Fed is the heavy chalk here for a good reason.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The hotter/faster the court, the better it is for Federer. A slow court will give DP any chance he has at winning.

Have to disagree. Del Potro is seriously uncomfortable on slow clay (check his loss to Ljubicic in Monte Carlo), as it doesn't give him any penetration off his flat groundshots, and particularly doesn't allow him to take advantage of his huge serve. Same story last year.

Federer is extremely comfortable - it's not a coincidence his best masters is Hamburg, where he won 4 times.

[SBR Lou]

I really, REALLY think this line closes over -300 at Pinnacle.

The line is -384 right now.

[VegasDave]

Say what you will about Lou, but beating a line by over -100 is pretty damn good.

Good luck to all you Federer backers!

[hoopster42]

nice call on the line, CrazyL, but i think you missed the line movement guess on fed-monfils, did you not?

[SBR Lou]

nice call on the line, CrazyL, but i think you missed the line movement guess on fed-monfils, did you not?

I had -318 and Pinny closed -320. So technically, although it didn't move as much there as I had predicted, I didn't "lose". The line hit lower than -318 at one point but still went back up, and I had beaten the market average anyway at closing.

[hoopster42]

I had -318 and Pinny closed -320. So technically, although it didn't move as much there as I had predicted, I didn't "lose". The line hit lower than -318 at one point but still went back up, and I had beaten the market average anyway at closing.

you are predicting and shopping well, then. nice work.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Did it reach my -400 by close? :-)

[VegasDave]

Did it reach my -400 by close? :-)

An even nicer call

[SBR Lou]

Did it reach my -400 by close? :-)

Closed at -380 at Pinny, a little different predicting movement once the line already moved 25 cents though, but good eye.

[daggerkobe]

ExFed now -166 Live.

Looks like u didnt get the best line afterall.