Federer at -318? Gettin' down before oddsmakers adjust for reality..
When handicapping majors, an important and useful way of analyzing matches is to look not for how a player has done that tournament, but instead look for how that players performances are perceived by the betting public and in turn, the oddsmakers.
This sounds simple, but in tennis it is most effective because you are not betting on a team sport. There is no homecourt advantage less a player hails from the state that the major is being held at, and even in that specific scenario there is no HCA which is factored into the betting line.
There are really not as many angles to evaluate in betting majors as people believe there are, recent performances really do not matter, it's the perception and how that perception influences and shape the line that is most valuable to determine.
Case in point: #2 Roger Federer at -318 against #10 Gael Monfils. What do we know that has been already factored into the line? Could it be Federer's 13 Major Titles? Or Monfils big fat zero titles? Or could it be the fact that Federer was down two sets to love this morning, and came back miraculously?
All of that and more. It's already in this line, but what's also factored into the line is the squares are afraid to lay the price on Federer, now more than ever. With Rafa Nadal losing as -5200 chalk just two days ago, and Federer coming out the very next day and being on the brink of elimination as a -1500 favorite, everyone from the $10 to the $10,000 bettor are going to think very carefully before making a wager on any price that is preceded by a "-".
Now, none of the above is new information, it's not groundbreaking, but it's the simplicities behind majors (and sportsbetting in general) which are so incredibly hard for the unsophisticated bettor to compute. I'm not going to get into quantifying edges, or betting Kelly, or even spell out in-depth ways of analyzing data, because quite frankly I had to learn on my own too.
All I can tell you is the question(s) you should ask, the answers are entirely up to you to discover. Only when you learn something yourself does it stick, I could give you the key to beating tennis and it would fall on deaf ears.
Here's what you need to ask:
Where will this line close?
What's the fair value of this line?
At what point would I consider this no play?
Right now it's at -318- and that's at Pinnacle Sports. I can all but guarantee lesser rated and less tennis oriented sportsbooks are hanging a line that is slightly to majorly worse.
Even at Pinnacle Sports this line will get worse, I will go ahead and say ~-344 closing as a conservative estimate, but I can easily see that being off by another .20 or so.
Taking to win 1 unit..
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Originally Posted by CrazyLou
