[SBR Lou]

Maybe not in the eyes of oddsmakers or the betting public, but in analyzing the remaining players and seeing a field absent of Jankovic, Ivanovic, V. Williams, Wozniacki, etc, this is Maria's best chance at returning to tennis success.

I am taking her at -137 in the quarter finals and every round thereafter....
Her opponent came up with a good win against the inconsistent Agnes Szavay, but that doesn't say much here and Sharapova has shown some signs of her old self thus far and also battled back when behind a set..

I think this match marks the return of her former self and I fully expect her to demonstrate her tennis prowess in her dismissal of her opponent here at a measly -137... I would have to say this play is probably better than 64% long-term...

[daggerkobe]

Great.

Goodbye Maria.... it was good to have you back but it's all over now.

[EaglesPhan36]

So the #1 seed and finalist from last year, Dinara Safina, isn't the favorite?

[cuteboy86hi]

Safina has been busy making bagels for everyone.How can she win?

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm convinced Lou is only posting this rubbish now to get people to reply to his threads.

[SBR Lou]

I would definitely not vest too many pennies into Dinara Safina. Sure she made the finals of this event last yr, and she got blasted off the map by an Ivanovic player that everyone has threw to the wolves this yr, so what's that say about her? I think the "Safin" in her comes out should she make another RG Finals, so I'm not handicapping her as having anything more than an outside shot now that Jankovic is out. This really does free up the path to the finals for sexy Sharapova..

[SBR Lou]

I'm convinced Lou is only posting this rubbish now to get people to reply to his threads.

You mean rubbish like saying that closing numbers/value do not matter, unless you "win" that day?

I've seen plenty of people on this board tout getting the best closing price, etc. in any play they make and that they'll come out a winner in the long run if they continue to get value for their plays. I've never understood this concept. You can get the best f-ing value in the world, if the bet loses, you lose. The outcome is the only thing that matters. There is no argument against that. If you win 10 out of 10 bets, you win money. If you win 2 out of 10, but you got the best lines on those 10 ... you still LOSE.

[pavyracer]

This is like getting advice from the captain of Titanic on how to navigate through icebergs.

[daggerkobe]

Seriously, how much are the books paying you to bankrupt posters?

[mathdotcom]

I am taking her at -137 in the quarter finals and every round thereafter....

Are you assuming she will be underrated the rest of the way? If you like, I'll let you take Sharapova -10000 against her final round opponent.

Why aren't you keeping track of your French Open record, Lou?

[SBR Lou]

Why aren't you keeping track of your French Open record, Lou?

I tried this before and it did more harm than good. If I forgot to post a play in my Tracker thread, but posted it in some other thread, people would expect me to count it if it lost, and if it won I'd of course be hung if I counted it. Plus it's too hard to keep on top of W/L for forum plays when you are trading live and have literally dozens of positions in any given week. It is too much energy and effort to stay on top of a forum record and you are tarred, feathered, then thrown aside like a forgotten toy if you make one misstep.

[daggerkobe]

Would you keep a record if you were -20 units every tournament?

And that's BS about not counting picks if not in "official" threads. Who the hell does that? And he invents the stupid rule and now cries about it?

[SBR Lou]

Would you keep a record if you were -20 units every tournament?

And that's BS about not counting picks if not in "official" threads. Who the hell does that? And he invents the stupid rule and now cries about it?

If I'm expected to count plays posted outside of a Tracker thread, we might as well use the honor system and count plays mentioned in passing when making small-talk with a neighbor on the lawn in the AM...

[mathdotcom]

I recall you saying that you thought Jankovic was doing fine when it was 6-6 in the third set??

We'd be satisfied with you just keeping track of your non-live bets. I remember last year you kept track during a tournament, and had your +whatever unit score highlighted in green, then it went negative and you made the text red. Then you lost a barrel of money on Ivanovic and the tracker disappeared...

Lou, have you made more money than you've lost playing tennis?

[mathdotcom]

Also Lou, why are you lapping up the praise for your Nadal to lose bet (see your signature), but ignoring the criticisms of your huge losses on the women?

[SBR Lou]

Lou, have you made more money than you've lost playing tennis?

There's no sense answering this question because my bets which are not posted on the forum are completely irrelevant, if you would rephrase and instead ask if overall out of the less than 100 plays I have posted on the forum have won more units than lost the answer would be no. Now if any meaningful conclusions can be drawn from that sample size then I applaud you for your analysis.

[daggerkobe]

If I'm expected to count plays posted outside of a Tracker thread, we might as well use the honor system and count plays mentioned in passing when making small-talk with a neighbor on the lawn in the AM...

You're the one who made a SEPERATE THREAD to highlight one of your plays because you wanted the extra attention.

Then after it loses, you suddenly declared that it wasn't "official" because you didn't post it in your "official" thread. This "rule" has never existed anywhere that I know of. You're the one who invented it and now are crying about it.

We all know you would've counted it had you won.

[mathdotcom]

There's no sense answering this question because my bets which are not posted on the forum are completely irrelevant, if you would rephrase and instead ask if overall out of the less than 100 plays I have posted on the forum have won more units than lost the answer would be no. Now if any meaningful conclusions can be drawn from that sample size then I applaud you for your analysis.

Just curious.

If you let us know how much you are down after those 100 bets, we can indeed infer something from that sample size.

[EaglesPhan36]

I would definitely not vest too many pennies into Dinara Safina. Sure she made the finals of this event last yr, and she got blasted off the map by an Ivanovic player that everyone has threw to the wolves this yr, so what's that say about her? I think the "Safin" in her comes out should she make another RG Finals, so I'm not handicapping her as having anything more than an outside shot now that Jankovic is out. This really does free up the path to the finals for sexy Sharapova..

I'll take Safina all day long if the two meet in the semis. Sharapova should have enough to get by Cibulkova, but even that isn't a given the way she's been playing unevenly so much in this tournament. That inconsistency, especially on serve, is going to catch up with her when she plays someone with enough experience to make her pay. Cibulkova might not be that girl, but she also battled Sharapova tough in their two matches. She's no push over. And as evidenced by your talk here, Safina to me is the most overlooked #1 seed in quite awhile. No one has really talked about how great a year she's had on this surface. 18-1.

[daggerkobe]

Safina will choke as usual.

I remember when I said Dementieva would win the Gold Medal, everyone, including CrazyL, all said no way... and took Safina as 2-1 fav.

[Karayilan9]

Sharapova looks like she's hurting, she's fighting her way through the rounds and that iron nerve is getting her through the troubled times however, you've hopped on the train late, she was being under-rated earlier on getting real nice odds. However, now that the public has clocked on I wouldn't be suprised if her odds started dropping.

She'll battle through the average and good players but will have trouble against the power houses of womans tennis due to her physical state. However, like I think EaglesPhan said in another post, she's the one to take for the next big tournaments, she's getting closer and closer to her No.1 form.

[fearless]

Sharapova looks like she's hurting, she's fighting her way through the rounds and that iron nerve is getting her through the troubled times however, you've hopped on the train late, she was being under-rated earlier on getting real nice odds. However, now that the public has clocked on I wouldn't be suprised if her odds started dropping.

She'll battle through the average and good players but will have trouble against the power houses of womans tennis due to her physical state. However, like I think EaglesPhan said in another post, she's the one to take for the next big tournaments, she's getting closer and closer to her No.1 form.

If Sharapova wins it will be a real life Rocky Balboa-type story. Those don't come along often and I'd be shocked to see it happen here. I'd say she's got a very small chance.

[daggerkobe]

No way Sharapova wins this, or even makes it to the finals...... and I'm her #1 fan.

[Karayilan9]

Fearless
If Sharapova wins it will be a real life Rocky Balboa-type story. Those don't come along often and I'd be shocked to see it happen here. I'd say she's got a very small chance.

I agree totally I can't write her off either, can't say she has no chance, she's the kind of player who is best when told she's got no chance cos she'll wanna prove the world wrong. She's got more balls then 95% of the men.

[SBR Lou]

If Sharapova wins it will be a real life Rocky Balboa-type story. Those don't come along often and I'd be shocked to see it happen here. I'd say she's got a very small chance.

I don't know that Balboa is an accurate comparison. She's more than just meat and muscle, she's a genius on the court and actually has historically lacked what Rocky had a ton of (heart).

Still though, I think she gets it done.

[yisman]

posted yesterday:

Besides Dinara Safina, there's no one left in the draw that has any realistic shot at winning this thing with most of the big names out already.

This really does free up the path to the finals for sexy Sharapova..

Uhoh... Know what that means?

[SBR Lou]

posted yesterday:

Right, and that was in the same context of Jankovic being alive. With Jankovic out of the way, (which I didn't attribute much chance to) it opens a door.

[yisman]

I tried this before and it did more harm than good. If I forgot to post a play in my Tracker thread, but posted it in some other thread, people would expect me to count it if it lost, and if it won I'd of course be hung if I counted it. Plus it's too hard to keep on top of W/L for forum plays when you are trading live and have literally dozens of positions in any given week. It is too much energy and effort to stay on top of a forum record and you are tarred, feathered, then thrown aside like a forgotten toy if you make one misstep.

Things like accountability require too much effort, I suppose.

This is priceless.

You wouldn't have the brass to put your record in your signature because no one would take you seriously with your horrendous track record.

[yisman]

I think the "Safin" in her comes out should she make another RG Finals, so I'm not handicapping her as having anything more than an outside shot now that Jankovic is out.

Right, and that was in the same context of Jankovic being alive. With Jankovic out of the way, (which I didn't attribute much chance to) it opens a door.

You don't see the contradiction? First you say only Jankovic and Safina can win it. Now you're saying Safina only has an "outside shot", even though the only other person who had a shot was eliminated.


Going by yesterday's post, you should be all over Safina to win it. You're flip flopping.

[yisman]

She's more than just meat and muscle

She's 6'2 130.

[SBR Lou]

She's 6'2 130.

Taking things out of context again.

She was compared by someone else to Rocky Balboa. I was saying she's "More" than just a physical specimen (which was ALL that Rocky was- with heart), and actually a court genius.

[SexyMit]

To this whole thread

[daggerkobe]

Sharapova getting raped early by the cheerleader from Heroes.

Jinxl at it again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't discount her just yet. Her M.O. at RG has been to look hopeless in one set and then come back to win. Although working against Lou here is something she didn't need.