[SBR Lou]

If I was really "Crazy", but definitely a four and a half to seven unit play here, depending your comfort level laying the lumber.

jelena jankovic -560
vs S. CIRSTEA

Edge with the backhand: Jankovic
Jelena has the most dominant backhand on clay that I have ever seen, her defensive prowess is simply unmistakable and her court presence will be too much for the far inferior opponent to overcome.

Cirstea, coming off a victory against the badly injured Caroline Wozniacki, has absolutely no edge over the far superior opponent and IMHO should pretend to pull a hamstring and lose with a semblance of dignity.

Edge at the net: Jankovic
Jelena's play at the net will allow her to spread her opponent across the court, and allow her to utilize the drop-shot as well, something we have not seen her implement too much of in her game.

Edge on the big points: Seriously?
Cirstea has never won anything meaningful in her life, in fact I'm not certain she's ever won anything outside of a challenger or two. I'd look it up but it's irrelevant because this is like a midget against Andre The Giant, except there's no sling-shot handy.

The line should approach -1850
The line is the biggest overreaction in recent memory, probably comparable to the overreaction displayed by many after Nadal stole a Wimbledon for Federer, and their relevant absence when Nadal lost in a RG fourth rd thereafter..

Jankovic in a romp, perhaps a 6-2 / 6-4 outing, a bagel (6-0) not out of the question...

[pavyracer]

It's not hard to liquidate a jar of pennies after you lost everything on Wosniacki and Ivanovic back to back days.

[SBR Lou]

It's not hard to liquidate a jar of pennies after you lost everything on Wosniacki and Ivanovic back to back days.

Bet amount is irrelevant, this is a matter of value and this line inherently contains a smörgåsbord of it.

[tacomax]

The line should approach -1850

So the line is -550 but you've calculated it as -1850? Have you considered the possibility that whatever system you use is a steaming pile of shit?

[SBR Lou]

So the line is -550 but you've calculated it as -1850? Have you considered the possibility that whatever system you use is a steaming pile of shit?

I don't like the word system.

I'm not at liberty to go into any further detail, but this play is definitely one that does not come up often. I have shared the fair value of the line, that should be enough to gauge whether one is interested in fading, tailing, or passing entirely on the tennis handicapping selection.

[Emily_Haines]

So the line is -550 but you've calculated it as -1850? Have you considered the possibility that whatever system you use is a steaming pile of shit?

Don't sugar coat it. Tell us how you really feel.

[tacomax]

I'm not at liberty to go into any further detail, but this play is definitely one that does not come up often.

Have a look at this thread:

You ever see something that just doesn't make sense?

Take a look at post #8 especially.

Whatever you're using to come up with your estimates is hopeless if it's throwing out -1850 lines when the market is -560.

[SBR Lou]

Whatever you're using to come up with your estimates is hopeless if it's throwing out -1850 lines when the market is -560.

I appreciate the insight, however I believe you have mistakenly made the assumption that due to the discrepancy in my numbers the market must certainly be correct. Has it occurred to you that I am analyzing a non-public set of data?

[tacomax]

I appreciate the insight, however I believe you have mistakenly made the assumption that due to the discrepancy in my numbers the market must certainly be correct.

Neither your number nor the market number is correct but the true line will be closer to the market price than your price. Unless you're more efficient than the market that is. No disrespect, but I didn't consider that option a possibility.

Has it occurred to you that I am analyzing a non-public set of data?

Has it occurred to you that you're using the wrong data?

[nosniboR11]

Crazy lou has officially become the dumbest Gambler on SBR

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm quite certain Lou only makes these posts now to get whatever responses he gets. Again, no women's player is worth paying over -200 for, nevermind -500 whatever. The term value should be banned from Lou's vocabulary.

[SBR Lou]

I'm quite certain Lou only makes these posts now to get whatever responses he gets. Again,

Okay, I have to admit I chose this title just to be goofy, but I'm serious that I have the fair value capped much higher as written in my original post.

no women's player is worth paying over -200 for, nevermind -500 whatever..

That is a pretty misinformed statement.

[yisman]

Cirstea is +517 at Pinnacle. I'd take that before I took Jankovic chalk.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hey if you want to throw around money at big odds, go for it. I just think it's idiotic to wager that much on something as touchy as a women's tennis match which notoriously have big favorites tank. I think I said I would never do it on anything outside of Nadal vs. a kid in a wheel chair at Roland Garros. And look at today, the kid in the wheel chair won!

[tacomax]

Looks like Jankovic at the moment.

[SBR Lou]

I'm also playing Radwanska at +285 for 2 units. Was going to make a separate thread but don't feel like it, I really think she has a chance to upset Kus. She has no power at all, but she plays intelligent tennis and is generally a very consistent player mentally. I think if Kuznets. does her usual unforced error routine (very likely given her style and this surface) Radwanska can capitalize.

Also, Radwanska isn't the type of player that normally blows leads because her style is so grind you out, she doesn't take big risks.

[The General]

I am really rooting on Lou to be correct with his Federer selection at such Sweet odds on May 7th.

[moonbeam]

If I was really "Crazy", but definitely a four and a half to seven unit play here, depending your comfort level laying the lumber.

jelena jankovic -560
vs S. CIRSTEA

Edge with the backhand: Jankovic
Jelena has the most dominant backhand on clay that I have ever seen, her defensive prowess is simply unmistakable and her court presence will be too much for the far inferior opponent to overcome.

Cirstea, coming off a victory against the badly injured Caroline Wozniacki, has absolutely no edge over the far superior opponent and IMHO should pretend to pull a hamstring and lose with a semblance of dignity.

Edge at the net: Jankovic
Jelena's play at the net will allow her to spread her opponent across the court, and allow her to utilize the drop-shot as well, something we have not seen her implement too much of in her game.

Edge on the big points: Seriously?
Cirstea has never won anything meaningful in her life, in fact I'm not certain she's ever won anything outside of a challenger or two. I'd look it up but it's irrelevant because this is like a midget against Andre The Giant, except there's no sling-shot handy.

The line should approach -1850
The line is the biggest overreaction in recent memory, probably comparable to the overreaction displayed by many after Nadal stole a Wimbledon for Federer, and their relevant absence when Nadal lost in a RG fourth rd thereafter..

Jankovic in a romp, perhaps a 6-2 / 6-4 outing, a bagel (6-0) not out of the question...

I guess you earned 2 cents for this post from SBR

[Tchocky]

Good luck, Lou. I hope Jelena doesn't break your piggy bank.

[SBR Lou]

Good luck, Lou. I hope Jelena doesn't break your piggy bank.

Thanks, I also have her Future.

Besides Dinara Safina, there's no one left in the draw that has any realistic shot at winning this thing with most of the big names out already.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think this is Safina's tournament to lose. Best form on clay this entire year and her remainder of the draw has gotten a bit easier. Azarenka really didn't play much on clay in the Spring and her form was "meh" on the surface, A win there and Safina gets Sharapova or Cibulkova. Safina beat Sharapova twice on clay at the French in '08 and '06 when Maria was the big dog and Safina was trying to fight up. Roles would be reversed and Safina would be the one in my books to make Sharapova finally have to play 3 quality sets of tennis here to win. I still think Kuznetsova might get in on the other side. She's not getting any pub either, but has rolled and had good clay form. Could be Safina-Kuznetsova Part III for Finals this Spring/Summer.

[Netprofit]

i concede, most likely CrazyLou will win this one, but I am still not going to risk 5+ units for 1 unit, not even incuding in a parlay as i think Cirstea does have a 10 - 20% chance of winning.

[The General]

Minus $6.50 @ TheGreek currently

[tacomax]

Should be -1850

[Netprofit]

instead of risking 5+ units to win one, why dun you go the easy one on monfils or robredo? oh i forgot CrazyLou plays only one women's matches? in that case, how about razzano at +125? even serena is a much better play.

[veto]

Thanks, I also have her Future.

Besides Dinara Safina, there's no one left in the draw that has any realistic shot at winning this thing with most of the big names out already.

uh...svetlana, serena, azarenka....very very realistic shots.

[SBR Lou]

uh...svetlana, serena, azarenka....very very realistic shots.

Lol, Svetlana is far too slow to win anything on this court, Serena got her major here already and will never win another against these younger quicker players, and Azarenka has never even competed in a Slam final if memory serves correctly.

Jankovic and Safina are by far the most likely victors, most likely Jankovic due to her experience and defensive pedigree.

[EaglesPhan36]

Might as well bump it first since everyone else is gonna be here when the 3rd set starts.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cirstea wins the 2nd set, 6-0. You want to tell me that there's value in sweating out a 3 setter at -560?

[Irish Jet]

Go Cirstea!

My other huge underdog play today (Haas) crashed and burned earlier. Cirstea looks pretty good right now though.

[pavyracer]

1-0 Cirstea 3rd set.

[SBR Lou]

1-0 Cirstea 3rd set.

Was still on serve, 1-1 now in the third.