[PharaohUB]

This Zhrymont guy went from +165 to -110 in the last 5 minutes. Match starts in ten minutes. Know most guys on here arent too into line movement. Going to play it small and see how it goes.

[PharaohUB]

Back to+120. I think 5Dimes might have just punked me. Strange to see it move this much. Someone went large on Zhrymont then bet the other way when line moved.

[SlowNsteady]

I was considering Zhrymont at +180 but the movement scared me away. GL

[PharaohUB]

He's getting killed. Broken twice already in 3 service games. Oh well went small. Breaking bad then bed time.

[BrianLaverty]

Do not look into challenger line movements at all at 5d.

On small markets and props...they automatically move the line 15c for every max bet.... with 100 dollars max, all it takes is someone 500 dollars to move challenger lines 75c.... not much at all.

Obviously line movement is huge in other spots..... a match involving levine earlier this summer moved from +150 to -300 because of inside info about his opponent.... it takes alot of $$ to movr a line like that at pinnacle....

[matt1216]

He's getting killed. Broken twice already in 3 service games. Oh well went small. Breaking bad then bed time.

good play man, hes lookin alright

[EaglesPhan36]

Laverty is spot on as far as Challenger line movement. If you pay attention to Challengers, you will see big swings every day that as stated don't mean shit.

[PharaohUB]

May not mean shit but it cashed.

[nicsbr]

I must start to know guys on the challenger so i can get fixed matches (a)

[PharaohUB]

Do not look into challenger line movements at all at 5d.

On small markets and props...they automatically move the line 15c for every max bet.... with 100 dollars max, all it takes is someone 500 dollars to move challenger lines 75c.... not much at all.

Obviously line movement is huge in other spots..... a match involving levine earlier this summer moved from +150 to -300 because of inside info about his opponent.... it takes alot of $$ to movr a line like that at pinnacle....

That's not entirely true. It probably depends who you are. I got $300 down on the guy that Tevari tipped us on a couple weeks ago. Guy out of college playing on home soil. Can't remember his name. Anyway, the line did not move at all while I put on consecutive bets.

I think if you see a line move from +165 to -110 about ten minutes before game time in a matter of minutes it should ring alarm bells in your head. I'm not even talking about match fixing. Maybe the guy has fuckin diarhea and a ball boy called his buddy in turkey and let him know. You don't think anyone is paid off in these poor ass countries a few bucks to send inside info when they have it? You'd be insane to not think so. A few thousand dollars might mean nothing to you. But it's probably a years pay for some of these people in these countries.


Like I said before I respect yours and EP's capping abilities, but to disregard a 80 point line movement 5 minutes before the match like it means nothing is silly. The timing alone is very important. Like I said late illness reported, etc. To move it that much did not take 400 dollars in bets. It probably took 10 different accounts making 5 100 dollar bets. Sounds like someone got info about something!

No these bets won't always win. I bet sometimes you can win when you have diarhea. But it's worth tracking and keeping an eye one. I'll post again in this thread if I notice this again and we can all track it and see how it works out.

[nicsbr]

Turkey is a kinda rich country. You could pull off something better.

[BrianLaverty]

I've moved lines 100c with 5 max bets... I'm telling you it doesn't mean a thing in challenger tourneys... you will be down $$ long-term blindly following challenger movements.

[PharaohUB]

Lorenzi line moved late today. Bolleli retired in 2nd set. Agree to disagree.

[PharaohUB]

Going to track for a few plays and see if its long term loser.

Kavcic -135 is play at 1:15PM based on line movement. 1-0 so far.

[imzdeals]

zhyrmont at +180 against kunitsyn might be worth a shot later tonight

[jaygator]

Dont pay attention to line movement especially in challenger tennis.

[EaglesPhan36]

You need to track these for several months if you're going to prove or disprove anything about line movement and tennis. Any given day the end result could match the line movement in any sport - especially tennis, but if you watch it over the course of a season ... you will find out that it is not a definite indicator of the outcome of a match IMO.

You'd also need to define your line movement. If it moves say ten cents, that's hardly a move ... I think you've got to set a minimum amount that you think shows a supposed advantage. I think 30 cents minimum, so a line moving from -130 to -160 for example ... even that might not show more than market correction of a max bet placed on someone ... but I think you'd need to establish something concrete to track.

[PharaohUB]

I'm almost thinking 50 cents minimum. I may also break up the record for late movement (like last night) where this could possibly be late info/injury related. Versus line movement from opening line like Kavcic, where maybe it just got moved because the bookmaker didn't post a good opening line. I'm thinking the late line movement has more value, but I will test that theory out.

Nobody has to like the strategy, but there are enough losing threads here might as well try something new and see how it goes.

[jaygator]

Reason I said you shouldnt pay attention to it is because few people bet on them, every time I bet a challenger match the line moves incredibly, just tells me few people bet them.

[PharaohUB]

1-1 so far 1-0 late line movement. 0-1 line movement from opening line.

[PharaohUB]

Late Line Movement Play

Guillermo Olaso -140

[PharaohUB]

Late Line Movement Play

Guillermo Olaso -140

Winner 6-1, 4-1* Retirement (what a surprise )

[PharaohUB]

Overall 2-1 (+0.65 Units)
Late Line Movement Plays (2-0 +2 units)
Movement from Opening Line Plays (0-1 -1.35 units)

for simplicity all plays 1 unit. Will keep tracking. Good luck all.

[PharaohUB]

Josselin Ouanna

-275

nvmd no play. just went down to -170. These challenger lines are insane. I'm not going to play them anymore lol.

[shari91]

Josselin Ouanna

-275

nvmd no play. just went down to -170. These challenger lines are insane. I'm not going to play them anymore lol.

Or maybe just play them really teeny if you want to track. I never tracked late line movement. Only total line movement for 5-7 years for ATP and WTA and stopped around May last year. Definitely not worth it to follow long term for the main Tours. But you could be on to something with the Challengers if you set up some strict parameters as you guys talked about. The problem is the others were right - it doesn't often take much for a line to move significantly in Challengers. I've posted Challenger plays and then watched the line drop after other posters said they tailed. So it's kind of a tough call. Very interesting thread though!!

[tevari]

I get called 'sick' etc for playing WTA frequently, but IMO challengers makes the women's tour look tame.

[EaglesPhan36]

You can make good money on Challengers. You have to really know your slumdogs + young dudes though. Someone laid it out before, big line swings on Challengers are frequent because of low limits on MAX bets for them - so if you're following line movement here, you're in trouble.

[PharaohUB]

Yes definitely what ep said. I never used to move challenger lines, but once I went on a little run a 100 dollar bet can move the line 50 points. The line today swung from -150 -275 to - 170 to -220 in a matter of minutes. Crazy stuff. What are limits like at bovada for challengers? I'm guessing you could scalp small and make a few bucks here and there if you know what you are doing.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not sure. They have not posted any Challengers this week. Kinda bummed about that. They are definitely slow to adjust on Challengers compared to 5D which shifts lines frequently and in big ways on Challengers.