[SBR Lou]

These prices should only get worse.

While I don't think I'll outdo myself on my pick of Federer at +1150 (now at +700), these are solid positions.

[durito]

what good is a pick if you don't actually bet it?

[RogueScholar]

I totally agree with you on Jankovic, Lou. I've been mentioning her futures in chat for awhile now, she really seems to have her head on straight for the first time in awhile. If I were making the lines I think I would have to set her as the odds on favorite for the French Open, from what I've seen recently.

I don't believe in Ivanovic though, she strikes me as mentally weak and prone to fits of self-doubt under pressure. If I were going to offer another value on the futures in the tournament, it would be Kuznetsova. She's been on a role lately and she seems to have put on some muscle recently. I think she goes very deep, although I won't be studying the draw until this evening. I'll revise my opinions once I do.

Thanks for mentioning this topic, I get wrapped up in contributing at TennisInsight and forget to talk about tennis on SBR. That poor sub-forum is a ghost town here.

[pavyracer]

what good is a pick if you don't actually bet it?

What good is a pick at any price if it doesn't actually win?

[durito]

What good is a pick at any price if it doesn't actually win?

plenty

lets say i have a fair coin. i offer you +105 on heads and -105 on tails. you bet heads and i flip tails. did you make a good bet?

[SBR Lou]

I totally agree with you on Jankovic, Lou. I've been mentioning her futures in chat for awhile now, she really seems to have her head on straight for the first time in awhile. If I were making the lines I think I would have to set her as the odds on favorite for the French Open, from what I've seen recently.

She's the best defender in the field, particularly on this surface I feel that she moves quite well. I do not understand how anyone with the last named Williams could be +700ish here.

I don't believe in Ivanovic though, she strikes me as mentally weak and prone to fits of self-doubt under pressure. If I were going to offer another value on the futures in the tournament, it would be Kuznetsova. She's been on a role lately and she seems to have put on some muscle recently. I think she goes very deep, although I won't be studying the draw until this evening. I'll revise my opinions once I do.

I'm not inspired by her recent performances either, but she's definitely underpriced here given her ability on clay. She has the talent to own this field as we saw last year, her problems stem more from belief and the fact that she's allowed toxicity to enter her personal life. She was much more poised and focused before involving herself intimately with Fernando Verdasco. I suspect both of their games would reach the next level if they severed ties for a while and focused solely on tennis.

[EaglesPhan36]

I totally agree with you on Jankovic, Lou. I've been mentioning her futures in chat for awhile now, she really seems to have her head on straight for the first time in awhile. If I were making the lines I think I would have to set her as the odds on favorite for the French Open, from what I've seen recently.

I think her defensive game will help on clay, but she's not exactly ripping it up on the surface. She had the one big win in Spain in April. Since then, she's lost in the quarters in three straight events - only one to Kuznetsova that you might say is a "quality" loss. The other two to Pennetta & last week to Schnyder are inexcusable for a player of her stature in my mind. Jankovic's serve is still her Achilles heel.

I've seen Safina at +600. I think that is one I am leaning toward, although I think making futures bets before the actual draws are set is not smart. So my work begins Friday when the draws are up. GL fellas.

[Justin7]

plenty

lets say i have a fair coin. i offer you +105 on heads and -105 on tails. you bet heads and i flip tails. did you make a good bet?

Fair coin, yes. But was it a fair flip?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=1697475

[xyz]

Lou, I am more interested in how you come up with the "EV" numbers for those two picks. Thanks.

[SBR Lou]

Lou, I am more interested in how you come up with the "EV" numbers for those two picks.

By knowing what the fair value of each is.

[durito]

By knowing what the fair value of each is.

How did you do that? I am a tennis noob

[durito]

Fair coin, yes. But was it a fair flip?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=1697475

hmm, interesting

[pavyracer]

I agree with justin. I can throw the dice with the same numbers if I want to. All you got to do is make sure they land on the same side they were thrown. With practice it is not that hard.

[durito]

I agree with justin. I can throw the dice with the same numbers if I want to. All you got to do is make sure they land on the same side they were thrown. With practice it is not that hard.

So why aren't you in vegas cleaning out the casinos playing craps?

[pavyracer]

Because I have a family and I love to live in Atlanta greatest place on earth. I make thousands monthly cleaning up the offshore books by beating their juiced lines. My point is if you win most of your bets on a daily basis the juice will not kill you.