[SBR Lou]

I just hope it isn't due to some over-exaggerated injury.

I will make my selection later in this thread.

[Phillth]

Who has game enough to beat him?

[SBR Lou]

Who has game enough to beat him?

It's not a matter of game as much as it is coolness under pressure. He plays the big points well but is bound to hit the wall playing how he does, there was a period in time where Federer couldn't lose a tiebreaker, Nadal is the same way, but he also does not have the kind of style that will be effective long-term.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I can imagine him losing in three in current form - eg a close set, then a tiebreak to an opponent on fire. In particular, he may be vulnerable at Rome if it plays crazy fast like last year (78% service hold, similar to a slow/mid hard court, thus wawrinka/roddick/stepanek in the semis). Possibly also the Madrid masters, it could play quite fast cos of the altitude.

Best of 5 sets at Roland Garros though? Only if he's injured.

[Phillth]

No way he loses Roland Garros. Stumbled upon this the other day. I like the last stat where Nadal says he has been nervous at the french open twice.
http://www.tennis.com/tournaments/20...aspx?id=134680

[GatorFan]

I don't think any player out there can handle Nadal this year at Roland Garros. He's gonna get it again. He's still King of clay court

[durito]

Will R. Nadal Win French Open? (Must Start R1)
02:00 AM 1051 Yes -309
1052 No +259

[mathdotcom]

CrazyL = worst tennis caper on SBR

Unreal

[SBR Lou]

CrazyL = worst tennis caper on SBR

Unreal

If you want to lay -309 on someone winning a Grand Slam, then by all means do so.

[RogueScholar]

I don't think there are any good futures on Roland Garros this year. Seriously, who is going to beat Nadal on the crushed brick? Maybe Andy Murray if he has the absolute game of his life and Rafa decides to smoke a fatty joint before the match. Same thing for Verdasco in a redux of their AO meeting, but Rafa pulled out that victory and it'll be ten times easier for him to do the same on his beloved clay. If I'm missing someone, please let me know. Who are you taking to win the clay slam this year, Lou?

[GoodOldTed]

women's market far more interesting - it's wide open.

[jjgold]

Fed is not 1/2 the competitor Nadal is, secondly only and injury will get in the way. He is the best clay courter the world has ever seen.

[SBR Lou]

I don't think there are any good futures on Roland Garros this year. Seriously, who is going to beat Nadal on the crushed brick? Maybe Andy Murray if he has the absolute game of his life and Rafa decides to smoke a fatty joint before the match. Same thing for Verdasco in a redux of their AO meeting, but Rafa pulled out that victory and it'll be ten times easier for him to do the same on his beloved clay. If I'm missing someone, please let me know. Who are you taking to win the clay slam this year, Lou?

My pick will be posted on May 1st, but I can say that Andy Murray will not be it, I doubt he gets past quarters.

Nadal unquestionably has the pedigree at this event, not even sure pedigree is the right word as he's completely owned RG, but laying -300 on him to repeat isn't something I think is what would be considered 'sharp'.

[SBR Lou]

LOL lou...and this is coming from the same guy that posted a -700 loser?

Difference being that was an individual match, not a future before an event has started.

[RogueScholar]

My pick will be posted on May 1st, but I can say that Andy Murray will not be it, I doubt he gets past quarters.

I doubt it'll be Murray either, he's not tough enough mentally nor is he adept enough on clay to make a good go of it. But when I think of someone with the intellect and facility with strategy required to beat Nadal, Murray is the first name that comes to mind, so I threw it out there.

I've gotta tell you, I'm anxious to hear this pick now, because I don't know who it could be.

Del Potro? Gimme a break.

Djoker? Again, he's just not there, although he has the physical tools if anyone does. Mentally, fuhget about it.

[GoodOldTed]

My pick will be posted on May 1st, but I can say that Andy Murray will not be it, I doubt he gets past quarters.

Nadal unquestionably has the pedigree at this event, not even sure pedigree is the right word as he's completely owned RG, but laying -300 on him to repeat isn't something I think is what would be considered 'sharp'.

Why would you post a bet on a tennis tournament before you've seen the draw?

Rafa will beat the lot of them. 64 players at least have a chance of making the final. The 63 on Rafa's side of the draw have none unless he breaks down.

[redbull]

murray will not final four

with his stamina and talent at clay
maybe ferer and gonzo can make him rather have hard time.

[fiveteamer]

the field has just been mushed.

[The General]

Hopefully Nadal gets beats in a few hours

4/25/2009 6:30 AM CT Rafael Nadal vs Nikolay Davydenko Two full sets must be completed without either player retiring or being disqualified for wagers to stand.

101Rafael Nadal -2000
102Nikolay Davydenko +1200

[shantystar]

nadal will be defeated he expires my 250$ be last year at 5dimes ,which he lost.after that me no longer betting on this bookmkaers player!

[mathdotcom]

I got Nadal at -275 early. This is a great price.

The only way he loses is if he gets injured. Federer was the only one who came close in the last few years and he's done. Murray/Djoko not even close on clay.

$$$$

[valdosta]

So who's the mythical player who is going to beat Nadal at RG? Djokovic is the only player who can push him IMO. Last year showed that at this point he COMPLETELY owns Federer at RG.

[RogueScholar]

Yeah Lou, Nadal just beat Djoker this morning, as I'm sure a tennis buff like you would know. After watching the match I think the only person capable of beating Rafa at Roland Garros is if Jesus himself descended from Heaven with the racquet of righteousness in his hand. Otherwise, this Slam is open and shut on the men's side. The women's side, I don't have a clue really. I have a sneaking suspicion it'll be one of the up and coming teenagers who sneaks into a final on a bad day from Jelena or Dinara.

Regale us with your wisdom, oh wise tennis handicapper of SBR.

[mathdotcom]

Man reading this again was classic. CrazyL saying laying -300 on Nadal isn't sharp, but laid -700 on a best of 3 sets women's match. Unbelievable - how can you have any respect for a guy's opinion after that?

[RogueScholar]

I'm still waiting for who he thinks is a "sharper" play. I respect Lou's opinions, and I know that he will at least have an intelligent and circumspective reasoning to offer in support of his answer.

[donjuan]

Man reading this again was classic. CrazyL saying laying -300 on Nadal isn't sharp, but laid -700 on a best of 3 sets women's match. Unbelievable - how can you have any respect for a guy's opinion after that?

Your reasoning is as spurious as his.

[mathdotcom]

How so?

[donjuan]

Care to book -700 for me on any 3 set women's tennis match of my choice?

[SBR Lou]

How so?

There is nothing unusual with laying -700 on a match. I know what my edge was on the match, and it was a good number.

I fail to see how laying -300 on a tennis tournament win future before it starts could ever be considered a winning long-term play.

[RogueScholar]

That still doesn't answer the question of who you think can beat Rafa at Roland Garros this year, Lou.

[donjuan]

I know what my edge was on the match, and it was a good number.

What was your edge?

[SBR Lou]

That still doesn't answer the question of who you think can beat Rafa at Roland Garros this year, Lou.

Still crunching some numbers and waiting until the field odds are released, once I'm locked and loaded I will share my pick and the thought process behind it. All I can say for now is, it's someone nobody expects to make the semis let alone win.