[gregm]

Monaco retires right before the last game. LOL. Reminds of when cibulkova retired right before the final point. Come on guys, just finish it out. LOL

[dudekid]

yeah no kidding, monaco hurts thats for sure...need to get back to the basics too many plays in the day is just asking for trouble oh well

[dudekid]

lol he retired, what a bitch...never putting my money anywhere near monaco again

[gregm]

YTD 89-64 +29.56

Today 6-2 +2.96

Federer/Stakhovsky/Berdych/Wawrinka/Isner/Pennetta +122 risk 1 (Pennetta still pending)

Kudryavtsev -137 risk 1.37 (still pending)

I know I am a glutton for punishment wagering on Roddick here but I just cant take this Petzschner handicap wager. I just hope Andy may want some warm up before a Masters and he seems to be improving judging from the news from his camp, but you have to take that with a grain of salt.

Petzschner has had a year that is just as bad as Roddicks if you can believe it, but Roddick really needs to start getting that first serve in and get that first serve percentage up. He is really declining in aces and so many facets of his service game, I just see can't see Roddick leaving tennis after a year like this. He should dominate some of these tourneys and these courts if he can get his health straight. Worth a punt at this number.

Roddick -1.5 sets +124 risk 1

[BetaB]

Really feel for Roddick after his terrible start this year. Hopefully he will win the remaining 2 set

[gregm]

I don't think it is going to happen for him this year betab, he just looks so different out there than previous years. Roddicks serve is usually so dominant on these courts, but this will probably be my last wager on him for a while. I do hope he pulls it out.

[gregm]

I did the numbers on Hsieh for the Keothavong/Hsieh match ( spelling in tennis is always a pain when writing this stuff, Eastern European and now these Asian last names, Daniilidou gets me every time and thats Greek) and I really didn't think her record and the level of her opponents warranted a play against a more experienced Keothavong. Part of me wants to take Dellacqua, but the stuff I am reading about Hsieh may be more than just hype. She does have some incredible numbers. Worth a punt at this price

Hsieh -1.5 +101 risk 1

Martic -1.5 sets +100 risk 1

I like this mayer pick alot but I hate wagering this Acapulco tourney. Nalbandian could have cared less out there tonight.

Mayer/Berdych/Tsonga/Federer

-103 risk 2.06

[gregm]

I said I was going to stay away from this tourney but I don't see alot I like on todays card.

Starace/Berlocq o22.5 +100 risk 1 Should be a tough match.

Berlocq -134 risk 1.34

Nishikori -3 -118 risk 1.18

Verdasco -118 risk 1.18

Verdasco/Chela o22.5 +102 risk 1 Chela is one of my better guys for overs, usually puts up a fight. Overs have been coming in pretty well on the sheets with him

Federer -4.5 -118 risk 1.18 One of the surprising things I have found about federer is his numbers against lefties( ie Nadal). Obviously you can see how Nadal and his forehand shot to Feds backhand has bothered him over the years but Federers stats against lefties is one of his few stats that is less than stellar, of course most of these are all Nadal stats and Lopez is not Nadal.

Federer was facing a leftie like llodra who just flew from a finals in europe and Llodra actually played him tough in the second set, I am just hoping Federer can have better numbers on his first serve. Looking at the stats from the h2h here, Lopezs mediocre start to the year, I am basically hoping Fed can get an early break here and cover this handicap.

[gregm]

Wawrinka/Ramos o22 -108 risk 1.08

Isner/Sweeting 023 -114 risk 1.14

[gregm]

Tomic -4 -108 risk 1.08

[BetaB]

Best of luck today.

Looking through today card i can't help but wonder, If Novak were to played Omar Awadhy then what kind of handicap or ml will he get? Yesterday Stakhovsky ML(-8 Handicap) was -5000 against Awadhy and today Nole was -9000 against him (-7 Handicap) ........... perhaps Novak -11.5??

[BetaB]

Tomic -4 -108 risk 1.08

I'm not a fan of Tomic. He's just too arrogant and remind me of Gubis. Imo, he's being over-hyped and priced anyway, i hope he will get the job done today.

[face]

i give a pass to tomic because he is 19, but i know how you feel. for some reason i'm not a fan of dolgopolov because he struts around when he is losing, and acts like it's no big deal. then he loses. love it when a good fade dolgopolov play comes around.

[dudekid]

damn lopez is a pain in federers butt...i need federer to win outright for my parlay but i am rooting for you to cover the 4.5...i hate sweating these out!

[dudekid]

nice! just as i said that he takes over and wins by 5...well done!

[gregm]

Thanks guys. I figure if Tomic can beat Haas by 5 games and covers and beats guys like Verdasco, Berdych, Monfils, Dolgo, and Fish this year, then he shouldn't have that much of a problem against an extremely average player like Smyczek. I dont know how much that brouhaha in Australia had an effect on his game, he didn't look great in Memphis but that was a very tight match with Dodig. These small 250s are tough to figure out about with motivation, but I just can't wager on Smyczek even with the handicap judging from his numbers.

I don't think Melzer probably gave a damn about this one but it was a good win for smyczek, I just hope Tomic has some motivation to win this match. He could take this tourney if he wants it, he is lucky Melzer is out of the tourney. It would be another nice title for Tomic this year.

Darcis +132 risk 1

Darcis/Gulbis o22.8 -108 risk 1.08

Betting on Gulbis is like rolling the dice, but he won DelRay in 2010, and this is a tourney where he could have a real shot to win the title. Gulbis has looked really poor so far this year and Darcis has some nice wins this year in Dallas and beat Stepanek in San Jose and the Troicki match was a solid win, should be a tough match if Gulbis hasn't been out partying with florida girls.

[gregm]

Granollers -1.5 +109 risk 2

Granollers/Giraldo o22.5 +104 risk 1

I am not buying into this win over Nalbandian, he just didnt want to be playing here. Giraldo went out in his first match in Brazil and wasn't impressive in Chile. Granollers pretty good numbers on clay, off a tough loss in Rotterdam aand didn't impress in the Aussie, but is the better player. 8-2 in the last 10 on clay. Clay numbers for giraldo are not bad, smaller play on the over.

[gregm]

YTD 97-74 +25.41

Today 8-10 -4.15

Gulbis -194 risk 1.94

Getting this line down , probably would take the handicap but not doing well here.

Del Potro -131 risk 1.31

Berdych +142 risk 1

Djokovic -5 -105 risk 1.05

Federer -5 +104 risk 1

[gregm]

Djokovic/Federer/Nieminen -150 risk 1.50

Djokovic/Federer/Gulbis ( Gulbis already at -208) -123 risk 2.46

[beefcake]

Good stuff Greg as usual..!

[gregm]

Thanks beef

Verdasco/Almagro o22.5 -106 risk 1.06

Berlocq -2 -105 risk 1.05

[gregm]

Pablo Andujar under 6 games -125 risk 1.25 ( Andujar/ Ferrer)

This is offered at Betonline, I really like this book for tennis. I need some action for this book to get a rollover, they have a much better number than the -6 handicap at pinnacle, the under 18 is -103 at pinnacle though.

Ferrer has been winning and winning convincingly this year, one of the best players on the tour right now and has won this tourney two years in a row. Andujar has pretty good numbers on clay but you have to look at who his victories are against and he has never shown much here in Mexico. Hopefully Ferrer gets an early break here.

[beefcake]

I agree on Ferrer.I really wish he would step his game up a bit more and challenge the big 4 in majors, maybe getting to a semi or final.Bound to happen sometime.Sooner or later someone is going to get upset or injured in the earlier rounds and then he needs to make his move.

[gregm]

Federer/Djokovic/Jankovic +110 risk 1

Buying back a little from my Gulbis wager. Already pretty big on him with my parlay and -194 wager open, but this is Gulbis. I definitely think he wins this but like I said, this is Gulbis. He has won DelRay before and he looked pretty motivated during the Darcis match, I think he takes this pretty easily but we will see.

Matosevic +210 risk 1

(Gulbis -194 risk 1.94

Djokovic/Federer/Gulbis -123 risk 2.46 still open from yesterday)

Federer - 3.5 -121 risk 1.21

I already have Djokovic and Ferrer futures open and a few Gulbis wagers open, probably going to stick with these. It looks like Berlocq isn't going to pull this one out.

Daniilidou -2 -110 risk 1.10

[crblahblah]

Why Daniilidou, if you don't mind me asking? I watcher her entire match with Mirza and she was dreadful. She had a single good shot the entire time and can only play defensively. Mirza spent the whole 1st and 3rd sets hitting the ball into the stands with wide open courts. Maybe she just had a bad match and still won?

[beefcake]

Smart wagering on the gulbis future.Success there before, the mental side of playing tennis is huge and with his fragile psyche, knowing he can win there is huge for him.Since he obviously is not motivated by money at all, he needs anything he can get.

[gregm]

Thanks Beef.Gulbis is a always a dangerous wager but he has looked pretty motivated here and has a good win here for a title. I thought he looked really good after that first set against Darcis. Crhblah, this is really a bad tourney, but I just went on numbers and what I have seen from Daniilidou this week.

I havent watched this match so far, it looks like Daniilidou won the first set pretty easily and is up a break but Rogowska is about to break back. If Daniilidou loses this it wouldn't surprise me but there is nothing from Rogowskas wins that would make me put money on her. Beating Dokic seems to be par fro the course for anyone who can keep the ball in play and wait for the meltdown. It looks like they won't be getting this tourney in today, its 10:21 p.m. in malaysia.

Isner/Tomic o23.5 -106 risk 1.06

[gregm]

Wawrinka/Verdasco o22.5 -116 risk 1.16

Roddick -2 +114 risk risk 1

[gregm]

Gulbis. LOL.

[gregm]

I knew starting out with a Djokovic loss it was going to be a long day. Gulbis implodes and Tomic and Wawrinka cant even make a match out of this, hopefully Roddick and Danniilidou can salvage this rotten day. Extremely windy today in Florida but no excuse for some of these showings by Tomic and Gulbis. Going to end up in the red this week for these tourneys, should have cut back to half units and small wagers, I have never shown good numbers at these tourneys.

Federer -130 risk 1.3

Federer/Murray o23.5 +109 risk 2

[gregm]

Ferrer/Giraldo under 19 -119 risk 1.19

[BetaB]

well, red and green are both part of the game. Keep up the good work

[gregm]

Thanks Betab. These totals are killing me, florida was pretty windy but I am just glad I bought some back with the Gulbis wager. I realized last night I had quite a large wager on Ernests Gulbis. Ernests Gulbis!

I have really put up some very poor numbers on these small tourneys through the years, I just need to cut back.

Adding another unit of Federer -108 -1.5 games risk 1.08 (betonline actually better than pinnacle on the handicap number)

[gregm]

gregm, nice work so far. I made a speculator (small) play on Verdasco for Abierto Mexicano and he has a pretty good record against Ferrer.

One comment though: with futures you generally get at least 50-100% better odds playing someone on the ML all the way each match, have you considered doing this to improve your odds?

Great call on Verdasco Ben. It should be a great match, I really didn't see Verdasco getting this far but he looks gerat and I thought Ferrer looked pretty sluggish tonight. Ferrers numbers this year have been impeccable but Verdasco really seems to be finding his form. I hope it is a good match.

[benrama]

Thanks mate, I only put 0.25 Units on it, but at +1900 it's still a nice bet to be sitting on right now. I also put 1.5 units on Ferrer to win at -148 (terrible odds I know but the line had been pounded on him to win by the time I got there), so I can safely sit back and watch this one - if Verdasco can get ahead early I might put a little more on Ferrer to try to split the profits more 50/50.

I like the Federer/Murray over, pretty sure I'll play that myself. I think Murray has to be the play though as the underdog if you were to take a side - if this was indoor hard court it would be different, but Murray has the quality of Djokovic's return but with the ability to get more free points on his serve, I think that's a bad combination for Federer.

I hate betting on Murray though so I'll probably just stick to the over.