[Possum]

also never knew he had such an obnoxious grunt

agreed-i turned the volume down

[EaglesPhan36]

How did you miss that? Caught that when he made his Australian run a couple years ago ... it's a little gay.

[tevari]

I knew he grunted, but not to that effect. It sounded like he was killing a pig out there.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sarasota Challenger: Kudla -140
This is a play against that pig Mischa Zverev. The guy has not been able to handle the heat & humidity in his last two tournaments, one a hard courter in Tallahassee, FL and the other qualifications in Houston last week. He retired both times due to cramping or exhaustion. The only thing that keeps me from really liking this is Kudla's relative inexperience on clay. Most of his match play has come on the Futures level. Still, Zverev is terrible on this surface at around a 38% win rate for his career. That Kudla got to see his left handed game already on hard courts this year and beat him in Dallas - helps here too.

[tevari]

Kudla? Come on mang! ...it's my automated response whenever you bet him which seems like often

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know that I have backed him more than once ... went against him at least twice and LOST - including the match where he beat Zverev. He's going to beat this twat today.

[tevari]

50% pts won off 1st serve. He better shape up.

[EaglesPhan36]

They've both been equally terrible, what I expected ... Zverev got one extra break over Kudla, otherwise point for point it's almost exactly even.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kudla wins the 2nd set. Let's go young back.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kudla mutha fukka!

[tevari]

GJ.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tuesday, April 17th

Parlay: Kuznetsov (Rome) + Andujar (Monte Carlo) [+107]

ATP Rome Challenger

[BobW]

Thomaz Bellucci?

BOL today!

[EaglesPhan36]

That would be Thomas "The Tank Engine" Schoorel. Somehow he fought back from down 1-5 I think in the 2nd, but still lost the tie break and dropped in straights to Serra.

[EaglesPhan36]

*Gulp*

ATP Monte Carlo: Hanescu -120
A good set-up for the spitter. He rolled through qualis into the main draw and gets Seppi who has yet to play a match on clay in 2012. In general, Seppi has been terrible this season with the exception of the Rotterdam tournament. His clay form is iffy the past few seasons. If Hanescu can serve like he did in qualis, he should have a shot to win this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

And to finish the tidal wave of failure ...

ATP Monte Carlo

Starace +105
No way in the world that I back Berlocq with the leg injuries that hampered him in Houston last week. He was able to work through the pain of what appears to be shin splints/left calf issue [according to announcers during the tournament] for most of the week, but he succumbed to the pain in the final. Maybe he'll be fine, but on a short turnaround give me Starace. I think the price indicates the uneasy status of Berlocq because after two wins over Starace early this year on dirt, he'd be a large favorite if healthy.

Kohlschreiber +200
Tsonga has ascended in the top five, but the guy is still inherently lazy to me. His play in Davis Cup against the US showed me that again. Not sure I rate Kohlschreiber as a superb clay court player, but he's fully capable of beating Jo-Fried Tsonga if he comes in without much want to and creativity. If you look at Tsonga's track record, he tends to sleep walk through these clay court tournaments more often than not prior to the French Open. I'll take the juicy odds on the German to give Tsonga das boot from Monte Carlo.

[Andreibv]

Hanescu is stupid player,is very patchy and lost service after making break.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well at least Kuznetsov won easy to start off the parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

I really should have my head examined.

[EaglesPhan36]

Appears the market finally moved in on the Berlocq injury angle. Starace now a -130 favorite.

[EaglesPhan36]

I have officially made my last wager on Hanescu. Why it took this long .. brain damage is the only legit answer.

[juventusfc]

hey EP, u really like starace here? surely even a one legged berlocq could still smash him??
Anyhow, your thoughts on Nishikori v A Ramos and F Del Bonis v P Andujar game

[EaglesPhan36]

Hmm Tsonga match off the board.

[EaglesPhan36]

hey EP, u really like starace here? surely even a one legged berlocq could still smash him??
Anyhow, your thoughts on Nishikori v A Ramos and F Del Bonis v P Andujar game

Already on Andujar as part of a parlay. Fatigue angle could be in play for either Andujar or Ramos because of their long weeks last week. I trust Andujar a bit more as a veteran player against a guy in Delbonis who still has not harnessed all his talent to consistently perform against the veteran dirtballers. I avoided the Ramos-Nishikori match. If Ramos had appropriate rest, I would try him at the price because I think people have a bit too high of an opinion of Nishikori on clay. He's basically had one good tournament in his career @ Houston and done some good Challenger work, but not proven himself consistently to me on dirt at the ATP level. Ramos has looked like an up & comer on clay all season.

[EaglesPhan36]

I knew Berlocq was gonna retire. Couldn't make it the full set though. Not sure why the guy bothered to play today. Dude needs some rest.

[Possum]

I knew Berlocq was gonna retire. Couldn't make it the full set though. Not sure why the guy bothered to play today. Dude needs some rest.

8,535 euros to show up and retire--now he can hit the casino

[EaglesPhan36]

F.Lopez +170
Have to try this as well. Stan Wawrinka getting way too much respect here. Lopez had a good showing in Houston last week and really is a better clay court player than expected IMO. Wawa has been down since Miami, so another 1st up here where the guy who has been playing on dirt should have an early edge if he can take advantage.

[EaglesPhan36]

8,535 euros to show up and retire--now he can hit the casino

That helps. He loses ranking points though which is silly. Could have just gone to Monte Carlo and had some fun w/out bothering to play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Powering through the day today. Dunno, just felt like mashing my balls into a cement mixer with lots of tennis.

Sarasota Challenger

Gensse -120
Prodon has been terrible this season after being a pretty solid breakout clay guy on the Challenger circuit in 2011. Gensse has proven his mettle on clay at this level, having made a final in his last tournament. He can compete with guys in the same class as him.
Parlay: Phau + Lorenzi [-102]

[EaglesPhan36]

Guess Lopez went to Monte Carlo to party. Fukk me. What did I say yesterday ... parlays only. When will I listen to myself.

[tevari]

10 aces for wawa. Derp.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think my single player plays are going to be only Challenger level for a while. About 5% success at the ATP level seems like right now. Parlays got to be the main plays or I am going to keep giving back my other profits every damn day.

[tevari]

The more and more I bet tennis the more inclined i become to only cap the womans game. Almost double the return.

[Optional]

I think my single player plays are going to be only Challenger level for a while. About 5% success at the ATP level seems like right now. Parlays got to be the main plays or I am going to keep giving back my other profits every damn day.

You sound a bit like you are over-thinking this EP. Like a batter who comes in looking for a certain type of ball or to hit it to a certain spot, you'll miss more good opportunities than you make perfect hits. I wouldn't rule out ATP, as you are obviously going to keep following it anyway, just move to making micro bets for a while so it doesn't matter at all if you do win or lose. (and we all know you will start winning the moment you start betting a buck a game )

You have good reasons for taking your bets, so you are at a big advantage over most people. If you can analyze your own thinking patterns.

I have been keeping a note of what I read wrong for each match that didn't play out as I expected for the last 2 months or so and it's been a big help to me. I've been tending to under estimate importance of player quality and over estimate the value of recent form and the surface I think. If you can identify whatever area it is you have been estimating wrong it might help too.

The more and more I bet tennis the more inclined i become to only cap the womans game. Almost double the return.

You're a better man than me Gunga Din!

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh I'm rarely betting much more than pocket change on tennis any more. Parlays are just easier for me from my experience. I get on runs once in a bit where I will get single plays going well, but I doubt I manage much more than 50% if that over the long haul on those. Seems like I should have figured this out a long time ago, but some of these picks always look way too tempting and I end up losing those any way.