[Hareeba!]

What rollover are you talking about? I am telling you that my last deposit there was 7 or 8 weeks ago and I got like $25 bonus which I rolled over only an hour after the deposit. I was thinking the same way you are, and waited for that swing in the other direction to happen, but never did. Also, when my balance reached 5k I got more frustrated which made me risk a little more, which I shouldn't have done as you said, but it has happened already. My average bet size was $500 on about 65% of those plays, with bets between $1k and $2k on 30% and only on 5% of the plays I exceeded $2k, and of course all the big bets had won there.

If you truly believe this phenomenon why don't you simply forget about placing the other side of the trade and stick with the weak line at the weak book? Failure to do that means you don't really believe what you are saying.

[brendon]

dude, you have no clue what you are doing. all the stress is being created by you. if there is no rollover like you said or that you already met it, start withdrawing your fund when your balance was at 4k, or 5k, or 6k....but you kept on pounding bets and now your balance is out of control and you're worried.
this forum has so many people with years of experience and people that use sophiscated methods on their gambling. for you to come in here and say it's not coincidence after a few months trend and that it's easy as just betting on these lower rated books....nevermind, i've wasted enough time with this thread

[rowand13]

If you truly believe this phenomenon why don't you simply forget about placing the other side of the trade and stick with the weak line at the weak book? Failure to do that means you don't really believe what you are saying.

Why does it matter if I believe it or not? Perhaps, I don't believe this phenomenon. As I said in a previous post that the 14:1 winning to losing ratio was just very hard for me to believe. In fact, I don't even want to believe this phenomenon, and always tried to ignore these numbers. But, the fact is still that this is happening and can not be just coincidence.

I would never stick with weak lines at the weak book without placing the other side of the trade, because I want to live my life, and my believe is that NO Life with gambling. All I was trying to do is to get my money off this shop asap, which accidently added to the problem, and now I need some help or advice from anyone.

[rowand13]

dude, you have no clue what you are doing. all the stress is being created by you. if there is no rollover like you said or that you already met it, start withdrawing your fund when your balance was at 4k, or 5k, or 6k....but you kept on pounding bets and now your balance is out of control and you're worried.
this forum has so many people with years of experience and people that use sophiscated methods on their gambling. for you to come in here and say it's not coincidence after a few months trend and that it's easy as just betting on these lower rated books....nevermind, i've wasted enough time with this thread

Again, I was planning on withdrawing once my balance gets to 3k not 5k. But as I said before, once my balance reached 5k I was very frustrated and wanted to get it back to 2k asap, which resulted in an 8k balance and the same thing happened over and over. It was then out of my control. It has to be noted here that the higher rated book is tipping its plays, and their line movement is NOT based on volume, which I think has contributed mostly to all of this happening.

[Hareeba!]

Why does it matter if I believe it or not? Perhaps, I don't believe this phenomenon. As I said in a previous post that the 14:1 winning to losing ratio was just very hard for me to believe. In fact, I don't even want to believe this phenomenon, and always tried to ignore these numbers. But, the fact is still that this is happening and can not be just coincidence.

I would never stick with weak lines at the weak book without placing the other side of the trade, because I want to live my life, and my believe is that NO Life with gambling. All I was trying to do is to get my money off this shop asap, which accidently added to the problem, and now I need some help or advice from anyone.

You've been given plenty of advice but have managed to get yourself all screwed up over the issue.
Simply withdraw your funds and get out of the game to save yourself more angst or follow your belief and make a heap of dough at the weak books. Your choice.

[188]

Why does it matter if I believe it or not? Perhaps, I don't believe this phenomenon. As I said in a previous post that the 14:1 winning to losing ratio was just very hard for me to believe. In fact, I don't even want to believe this phenomenon, and always tried to ignore these numbers. But, the fact is still that this is happening and can not be just coincidence.


I would never stick with weak lines at the weak book without placing the other side of the trade, because I want to live my life, and my believe is that NO Life with gambling. All I was trying to do is to get my money off this shop asap, which accidently added to the problem, and now I need some help or advice from anyone.

Again, to reiterate to you 14:1 is a small sample and purely coincidence. I'm telling it to you by looking at the stats that i see year by year in hundreds or even thousands of sample size. They all finish off at 45-55,46-54,47-53,48-52,49-51 and 50-50. This split of favorite covering the spread in 45-55% of the time will eventually hold true in most of the sport.

So looking at your "14:1" makes me sympathize with you. I've been there before, doing hundreds of in-play every year. Sometimes you will encounter a streak of favorite covering the spread in all your game. Since I'm doing only 2-3 games a day, it must be a coincidence that 2 or 3 of my games will be favorite covering the spread. But those games that I did not do on that day will be the underdog covering the spread.

If these happens for a week, we could be looking at a 14-21 streak of all favorite covering the spread. And IT HAPPENS. This February alone, it happened to me, 18 out of 20 games that I did do in LIVE game were favorites covering the spread. If this happens, my P/L might not be good compare to those games that an underdog will cover the spread. My KPI suffers a lot during those times that Favorites cover the spread.

So for those reasons I can sympathize with you, although, for you it was your money that you were losing during that bad streak, while me it was my KPI that was hurting. Still, I know the feeling of coincidence.

My final advice it will balance out in the end. It might not be a perfect 50% but somewhere in the range of 45-55%

[superjeff24]

I don't know if its true that some books put off market lines intentionally just to catch arbers so they can kick them out or limit them, but I wouldn't be surprized if it is. You can double a decent bankroll in a month but you will get booted or limited from all recreational books. I consider arbing one of my biggest mistakes in sports betting. Yes I doubled my money, but now I am severely limited at bet365 and I wish I wasn't.

just out of curiosity, why do you care about 365? there are better books out there..

[superjeff24]

thats why you find so many posts in this forum claiming book refuses to pay the winnings and saying "you is not you".
my opinion is someone who is capable of arbing can and should make better income elsewhere, legally.

can you elaborate why you think this? what better income can they make elsewhere? arbing IS LEGAL. and as far as incomes go, it's safe and easy. you don't need multiple ID's like the one guy said, you can do it with like 4 A+ books.

[allin1]

just out of curiosity, why do you care about 365? there are better books out there..

I liked the fact that you can watch a lot of matches live with them. Of course I can do that with 50 cents in my account without placing bets but I also liked some of their options when it comes to live betting, markets that no other book has. It is a recreational book though so I wouldn't recommend it to anyone for anything other than the live streams.

[noyb]

you don't need multiple ID's like the one guy said, you can do it with like 4 A+ books.

4 books? yeah right. i take it you don't arb yourself?

[rowand13]

Again, to reiterate to you 14:1 is a small sample and purely coincidence. I'm telling it to you by looking at the stats that i see year by year in hundreds or even thousands of sample size. They all finish off at 45-55,46-54,47-53,48-52,49-51 and 50-50. This split of favorite covering the spread in 45-55% of the time will eventually hold true in most of the sport.

So looking at your "14:1" makes me sympathize with you. I've been there before, doing hundreds of in-play every year. Sometimes you will encounter a streak of favorite covering the spread in all your game. Since I'm doing only 2-3 games a day, it must be a coincidence that 2 or 3 of my games will be favorite covering the spread. But those games that I did not do on that day will be the underdog covering the spread.

If these happens for a week, we could be looking at a 14-21 streak of all favorite covering the spread. And IT HAPPENS. This February alone, it happened to me, 18 out of 20 games that I did do in LIVE game were favorites covering the spread. If this happens, my P/L might not be good compare to those games that an underdog will cover the spread. My KPI suffers a lot during those times that Favorites cover the spread.


I would agrewhen a high rated book tips their plays according to an insider expert tips on a spicific sport, then they are c

e with you for the most part percentage wise on regular line movements. But for me I'd say that, So for those reasons I can sympathize with you, although, for you it was your money that you were losing during that bad streak, while me it was my KPI that was hurting. Still, I know the feeling of coincidence.

My final advice it will balance out in the end. It might not be a perfect 50% but somewhere in the range of 45-55%

I would agree with you for the most part, percentage wise on regular line movements. But for me I'd think that, when a high rated book tips their plays according to an insider expert tips they have on a spicific sport, then they must be very confident about their line movement, and the percentage there would never be at 45% to 55% but would be much higher. I must emphasize here that those line movements would require lots of observation and time to be able to determine which movement was meant to be a tip by the sports book. I think you should know what I exactly mean here.

It is hard enough that in many cases you would not even know if it is a tip or just a regular movement until after placing the bet when you see how they would react to a bigger size bet. I am sure that even Pinny would do this a few times a day, when you can tell that this is not a reaction to a betting volumen. I mean, why in the world would they offer you a fixed price that contrasts the market, for 20 to 30 minutes, and when they move it they move it by just 1 or 2 cents? How do you see that?

[Thremp]

You are making up complete nonsense.