We're now 3-1 on 5* selections this bowl season and 4-0 on 3* selections. We swept the board yesterday with the following card!
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Sport / Rating / Selection
Monday, December 31
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL (Bowl #21)
Auburn Tigers +3 (50 Units)
***NEW YEARS COUNTDOWN PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Auburn Tigers are the one team that made me the most money this season and I am ending the 2007 year with a bang by once again pounding on what I think is a bogus line for this game. Let's talk business right now and you tell me who Auburn has not been able to beat this season? Sure the Tigers were underrated when the season began and sure they strugged out of the gates but apart from a few teams in this Country, nobody is beating the Auburn Tigers this season. Tommy Tubberville and his boys opened the season with a 10 point win over Kent State but followed that up with two very disappointing losses to South Florida and to Mississippi State. With those two losses behind them, the Tigers went on a tear of sorts winning four straight games and finishing the season on a 7-2 SU run, where they also went 6-2 ATS in those games. How many teams in the Country can say that they beat Florida in the swamp this season? How many teams beat LSU or came within one ore two plays the other way of beating them? Who beat both Alabama and Arkansas in the same season? This team is the real deal and their 2-2 SU away record doesnt tell the story as they actually went 3-1 ATS in those games. Auburn comes into this game averaging 24.0 points per game in their last three games of the season and in those games they managed to also average 290.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play which is among the weakest offenses in all the Bowl Bound teams this season. However, Clemson's defense has been dominant all season and they have allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three games but in those games they allowed 342.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play which should let Auburn do some scoring of their own. On the ground, the Tigers have not had the rushing attack they hoped they would when the seasons started despite their top three rushers all averaging 4.0 yards per carry or more and combining for 1600+ yards on the season and 15 rushing touchdowns. The Tigers average only 121.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games this season on 3.2 yards per carry. Clemson's run defense has been solid all season and they have allowed only 74.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and those opponents have managed only 2.4 yards per carry along the way. That means QB Brandon Cox is going to have to take matters into his own hands. Cox has completed only 50.6% of his passes the last three games for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is probably the worst stretch of his season. However, I do like that he has had time off to get away from that funk and I expect the real Brandon Cox to be back in time for this game. Clemson pass defense has been horrendous to say the least the last three games of the season as their opponents completed 73.5% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and I don't see why Cox wouldn't have an easy time picking this secondary apart. Sure they have 10 sacks in their last three games and yes they do take risks and bring a lot of pressure but Auburn's offensive has allowed only 5 sacks in their last three games and Cox should have some time to find receivers downfield. I know he has an issue with interceptions lately but like I said, the time off is going to do him some good and I expect him to be ready for this big game. The Tigers did not lose one single fumble in their last three games of the season and it's not like Clemson is a team that forces fumbles as they forced (not recovered but forced) only one single fumble in their last three games of the season. Auburn has the running game to make some kind of dent in this very good run defense of Clemson but it's when the Tigers go to the air that I expect things to open and get a bit crazy. This won't be an offensive display of fireworks for the Tigers but once they get the ball rolling, their defense should be able to take this game over and the offense should be right behind them. I like Auburn to keep it close after going down early and I like them to come on really strong at the end and win this game.
The Clemson Tigers are a team I have had problems capping for and against in the past but this season I have done a bit better and am starting to understand how Bowden coaches these guys. The Tigers can look like one of the top teams in college football one week and then they can look like one of the worst teams in the ACC the next week. If you don't believe me, Clemson is the team that finished the season 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games with big wins over Central Michigan, Maryland, Duke, Wake Forest and South Carolina. They also beat NC State and Florida State earlier in the year. However, this is also the same Clemson team that lost 13-3 to a bad Georgia Tech team, that lost 41-23 at home to Virginia Tech and lost 20-17 to Boston College when the game mattered most. Okay their track record is not that bad but they have not really beat opponents of Auburn's caliber. Clemson is an impressive 4-1 SU away from home this season and they are 3-1 ATS in those games but those wins came against South Carolina, Maryland, Duke and NC State. Three of those teams are not playing in Bowl Games this Bowl season so once again their credibility in level of opponent talent is very questionable compared to Auburn's. Clemson comes into this game averaging 28.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they somehow managed to also average 375.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games which is nothing to go nuts about considering who they faced. Auburn's defense is downright dirty when they play well and they have allowed only 19.3 points per game in their last three games this season. They have also allowed only 315.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.1 yards per play which gives them a good shot here. On the ground, Clemson has run the ball well all season but in their last three games they have slowed down a bit and are averaging only 135.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry which won't do much against this defense. Auburn has allowed 142.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry but even if Clemson does get some yards on the ground, they are not going to win the game that way because their passing attack is too big a part of the offense to just let it go. In the air, QB Cullen Harper had shoulder surgery in late November and he could be a bit out of it and out of synch in this game. Harper completed 71.1% of his passes in the last three games of the season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Auburn's secondary has a few off games at the end of the season as they allowed their last three opponents to complete 57.5% of their passes for an unusually high 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Clemson's problem as of late has been pass protection as Harper has been downed 7 times in the last three games and Auburn has the ability to really come at QBs hard with blitz packages. They have not done it as much recently but the Tigers have some quick guys on the ends and I expect a lot of pressure in this game. Clemson much like Auburn, has not lost one single fumble in their last three games this season but the difference between the two defenses is that Clemson does not force turnovers as much as they used to while Auburn has forced 6 fumbles in their last three games, they recovered 3 of those fumbles, they always come at you hard and they are always looking to strip the ball away from opponents. Aggressive defenses are the way to go in Bowl Games and I actually Clemson struggling a lot in this game tonight as Auburn should come out fired up to win this thing in a stadium they are somewhat familiar with.
BATTLE OF THE TIGERS! This is probably one of the best bowl matchups of the entire bunch because you have two very good but very sketchy coaches going at it with their programs here. The two schools have surprisingly not met since 1998 in a Bowl Game where Auburn won by four points in a traditional low-scoring affaire that we are probably going to see again tonight. Both teams are pretty much the same. Clemson's offense is actually better than Auburn's but that cancels itself out with Auburn having the more aggressive defense that can force turnovers and get their offense the ball back. Clemson's QB Cullen Harper was on quite the roll when it was determined he needed surgery in late November and for me that's a huge question mark coming into this game. Auburn's QB Brandon Cox on the other hand badly needed a few weeks off to collect his thoughts and get his head back into this team because the last three games of the season were some of his worst games ever. Auburn is not a team you bet against when they are underdogs as they went 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs, they have been beating and covering against winning teams left and right but the only knock on them is their 0-5 ATS mark in their last five games versus an ACC opponent. However, Clemson is not about to beat them in this game as the Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and apart from beating up on ACC minnows, the Tigers haven't done much else. WAR EAGLE TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
Auburn 21, Clemson 17
OVERALL RECORD: 6-0
OVERALL WIN/LOSS: +140 units
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