[G's pks]

This is where I will post my season long winning thread. I will start with the rules, picks will begin with the second series of the season. Any questions will be referred back to the thread containing the rules in most cases. Any of you that followed the system last year will remember it was a winning year. Also I will include my picks as I did last year.

The system is called the Conservative Chase System and is designed to win over the long haul. There will be losing days of course but if the rules are followed in the long season when it ends you should be ahead. Those who sent e-mails and pms, thanks I will get it started.

Here is last years thread
http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ad-record.html


The rules:

System #2 Conservative Chase System (I like to pick from one to all of the picks, but normally just pick one or two out of each series filter)

This is a chase system. It is based on a three to four game chase. It always starts with the beginning of a new series picked only by the system. Otherwise I will refer to the chase as unofficial...

How it works...

System makes the pick, bet on game #1, if it wins that ends that series. If it is a loss we move onto game #2 of that same series. And a third bet within that series only if game #2 is a loss. Either way that chase ends at that point after game #3 with either a series win or a series loss. Much like the John Morrison Chase of a,b, and c. A win at any time within the three games end that series. If a series has three losses that also ends the series. A series is three games max and a minimum of one. I remember one thing people kept doing last year is mixing or extending series this is not part of this system!


So here are the rules to make this system a success...

This system is not a get rich quick scheme...it is meant to get someone through the year hopefully on the plus side. I spend between two to four hours at the beginning of each new series set working with the system gathering the needed stats then capping at second level of filters...there are 15 new series that start usually twice a week (30 teams, 15 series).

A. Game #1 starts out with a bet between .2 and 2 units... if a win that ends the bets on that series...there is no bet on game #2, #3.

If game #1 in series is a loss, we move to game #2. On game #2, we would bet a maximun of 1 unit or any amount up to that to show a profit. If a win that series ends at that point.

B. If game #2 is a loss. Here is where there is a major difference in this chase system.. We actually go back to a smaller bet on game #3. Betting up to the amount bet on game #2. So we do not double up at this point! we try to cut our losses and move onto next series. So from .2 (20) or whatever you are setting your numbers at, to 1 unit. If you do not follow these rules and chase with just doubling or risking crazy amounts that is your choice. I believe with this method there is a very nice chance we finish up for the year.

C. One last thing...there are sweeps normally a few in every new set of the 15 game series, so being on the wrong side is always a chance...and will happen once in a while... So remember this is a chase system with limited risk if you follow the rules. .

D. When should a game be skipped? Remember the system does not take into consideration pitching matchups, that is something I do in the second level of filters by reviewing every single pitching matchup in the upcoming 15 games. If there is a pitching change(injury), a callup from minors to start....usually a good time to skip a game win or lose, especially if our team makes the change.

E. The negative responses or those that try to change the system will be ignored. All that matters are the picks...When the system gives me the leans I will list them and you can cap or wait for me to cap and limit selections. I will go forward with capping the individual games. At that point the leans are limited and turn into the actual plays. I will list the leans and the actual picks will be bolded.

F. If I do not list a lean or play you like that means it did not clear a filter or there may be an injury or pitching change. I am not going to go into detail why a pick did not clear but will discuss picks that clear both the system filters and the second level which is the capping and are listed as plays.

I hope this answers all the questions I keep getting. G.

[reverend]

looking forward to it G

[Chi_archie]

where is last year's thread?

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by Chi_archie

where is last year's thread?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ad-record.html

[reverend]

looking forward to it G

[OMGRandyJackson]

Are you openly posting all picks here? Or do we need to sign up for a mailing list to get all the picks?

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by reverend

looking forward to it G

Thanks I see a few of you are running similar systems...lets all make some money! Check out my thread from last year and see how I grinded it out. I use conservative amounts and a low wager rule of betting which some told me they just increased and cleaned up... Will post rules later today.

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by OMGRandyJackson

Are you openly posting all picks here? Or do we need to sign up for a mailing list to get all the picks?

No all the picks will be here, see my thread from last year above in blue. Also please do not offer me any money. Last year when some saw the system in high gear were sending me pm's and e-mails asking how much I wanted to send picks earlier, they will be posted for free just like last year.

I need three hours before the new series start to post plays...three hours of data that I force myself to hand write from the computer to make sure I am seeing everything..then cap series, pitching match ups and some other factors.

[OMGRandyJackson]

Cool man, looking forward to seeing the rules. At school right now so I don't wanna dig through last years thread just yet! Will check it 2nite though!

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by OMGRandyJackson

Cool man, looking forward to seeing the rules. At school right now so I don't wanna dig through last years thread just yet! Will check it 2nite though!

Added rules to post #1

[TheLock]

Proofreading. Try it sometime.

[OMGRandyJackson]

Looks interesting, I just have a question.

If you bet 2 units on game 1 at say 1.7 odds, and you loose. Than you bet game two at the max 1 unit, at 1.7 odds and you win, your down .3 units. Is that the point to minimize the lose of that series and hope to make it up in the next series?

[HoldEmHook!!]

Bol G......lets make some dough

[jaxjonesdrew32]

i'll keep an eye on this. i'm doing the no home series sweep system

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by jaxjonesdrew32

i'll keep an eye on this. i'm doing the no home series sweep system

It is very similar. But remember the key is to follow a strict money management plan that is where most will fail.

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by OMGRandyJackson

Looks interesting, I just have a question.

If you bet 2 units on game 1 at say 1.7 odds, and you loose. Than you bet game two at the max 1 unit, at 1.7 odds and you win, your down .3 units. Is that the point to minimize the lose of that series and hope to make it up in the next series?

You would not start with a max play of 2 units. Take a look through my thread from last year. Just about every pick with the system ends up being a favorite. The bet size starts small, game three would be the back off and take a loss game.

[paco]

Goodluck man. I started my own thread this season. 5-0 to start

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by paco

Goodluck man. I started my own thread this season. 5-0 to start

Nice start Paco... keep it up very long season.

[G's pks]

OK it is time to get started! First set of screens filtered out the following leans for the system. Second level of screens the deciding factor on my picks will be done tomorrow morning with the actual plays bolded.

Early weekend series leans:
4/9 to 4/11
Az
Col
Det
SF
Texas

Actual plays from this group in morning.

[G's pks]

First play in the system:
4/9
Cleveland vs Detroit
Detroit -157 (A) 20 to win 12.70

Up to now this is the only play from the system for the weekend. Again simple rules read above, start out with a small play, if that loses, game B double up, if that loses we go back to the amount of 1st game and take a lose on series dollar wise while the system could still post a win in game C. remember as soon as their is a win in a series that series ends. We do not join series in progress or the middle. All series plays start with first game of series, very simple.

Warning there will be three game sweep losses. The point of my Conservative chase system is having many more winning series than losing series and to make it to football in the green. GL everyone

[keel44]

Do you ever bet on any dogs? You could chase to the 3rd game with +odds.

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by keel44

Do you ever bet on any dogs? You could chase to the 3rd game with +odds.

Started a road system using dogs/road teams in another system last year. It did well but people kept confusing them! I might be running as many as three systems once the season starts rolling.

[el jefe]

I like the pick under your username. pretty slick!

[BillAccpetor]

Welcome back g with your baseball system...

Last year it worked like a charm...

Bol

[G's pks]

Thanks guys hopefully it works as well this year. Really it needs ten games to get going, there were really not enough meaningful stats to filter. But hopefully all goes well. Long season steady and slow... turn a profit only goal.

[xXxBallin21xXx]

Finally found ur thread, welcome back G! Learned from your system last season, this time I wont be asking questions, other than ur leans out of your system. GL this season!!!

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by xXxBallin21xXx

Finally found ur thread, welcome back G! Learned from your system last season, this time I wont be asking questions, other than ur leans out of your system. GL this season!!!

Just remember same as last year first round of filters, list leans second round of filters actual picks bolded with a small bet amount listed. Only one cleared the hurdle for this weekend and it was a winner!


Thats it till Monday. Long slow season of winning this takes a lot of discipline.

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by el jefe

I like the pick under your username. pretty slick!

Hope you cashed easy winner!

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by G's pks

First play in the system:
4/9
Cleveland vs Detroit
Detroit -157 (A) 20 to win 12.70 WON

Well boys very nice start to my season!

Indians 2
Tigers 5 Final

Thats it till Monday only pick that cleared both sets of filters. NO other plays using my system this weekend...
MLB Record
1-0 +$12.70

[xXxBallin21xXx]

Great pick with the tigers, wish i saw this earlier. I think imma roll with the Giants today, 1st game at home 3-0 record, I think Sanchez wouldnt want to disappoint the Giants especially at home so just a small play for me. I'll look forward for Mondays pick.

[khaden]

Nice job G--I'll be on board with you.

[G's pks]

Thanks guys... should work out the same as last year with a few bumps a long the way but once it gets rolling should work fine. Will be working on a few other ideas once there have been enough games played. Stats really do not mean to much up to now this year. GL with your plays tonight guys.


I will do some research into what Keel44 mentioned as far as a dog chase. Would like to see how something like this works after the home team has won the first game of a series... Might be worth a shot but a lot of the time I think we will run into tight lines when the road dog has a good pitcher on mound in a series.

[BobHarvey]

Good luck G. SBR has some fine MLB 'cappers on the site: you, Paco and PIMike in no particular order. All solid MLB guys. All eyes will be on the "Tremendous Trio".

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by BobHarvey

Good luck G. SBR has some fine MLB 'cappers on the site: you, Paco and PIMike in no particular order. All solid MLB guys. All eyes will be on the "Tremendous Trio".

Thanks hopefully this year is a repeat of last year. I really felt th pressure to pick a winner with the first pick and Detroit seemed to have some nice numbers going across the board where the Indians still look like the Indians...

GL with your plays.

[G's pks]

Points Awarded:
JawboneBuddha gave G's pks 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.


Thanks for the points this is not one of those crazy chase threads where no one has a clue who to bet. It will always be clear and bolded and the choices narrowed down by running over 20 filters. Hopefully it makes enough sense so we all can profit again this year. GL G.