10-30-09, 05:30 PM
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#1
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Nba & ncaab excel pr spreadsheet picks
Before I begin with all the rules as how to use the NBA Power Rating System I would like to mention that I did not create this system and will not take credit for it. This system was developed by Sportrends and they deserve all the credit. For those of you who followed along last year we had a very good year and hope to continue again this year.
It would be nice if one of you gurus could automate this spreadsheet so it automatically updates the scores and lines prior to making our picks.
Pete who has helped with baseball will be keeping the records and giving out the plays. I also believe the spreadsheet will automatically keep records for both Overall and H/A plays.
Now lets get on with the rules posted last year.
1. Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off. Like to see what the public is doing
2. Never play a game with a double digit line. The win/loss seems to be at 50% so I stay away. Maybe we should not rule this out and keep an eye on it
3. Dont play any game where team with lower PR is laying pts. Keep an eye on these games.
4. Only play games where PR's in any matchup are 1 or more pts apart.
5. I have also tried adding 3 points for the HC but found it drastically limits the number of plays due to the fact these power ratings are right on and do show where the value is. Again you can experiment with it.
6. Only play games that fall outside a 2 point overlay. If you look at the HOU/LAK game last night it will be obvious to you. Always use last column "Overall PR", LAK PR was 108 - HOU PR 102.5 = LAK = 5.5 (always round up or down). Now add the line of -4, LAK becomes a 1.5. You see the value was not outside the 2 point overlay. The bookies were slick by holding the line at 4 to 4.5 and not going to 5 or more. Therefore HOU was not a play.
7. For those of you who have purchased sportrends software and use the PR's, pass any game if the play is opposite. If you still want to make a play on a particular team use sportrends software PR's, they are more accurate.
8. If the majority of casinos are in agreement with the same line thats what we use.
9. My feeling is that injuries are irrelevant for the following reasons. The bookies take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjust the lines accordingly anyway. We all know that the lines for a particular team would be different if a starter were out as compared if he were playing. Again look at the HOU/LAK game. HOU had 2 major starters out and was a 4 point dog. Do you really think HOU would have been a 4 point dog if all their starters played. No Way!!
Ill try to think of other things as we go along. I am sure I am missing something. By the way if you want a good explanation as how the spreadsheet works go tohttp://www.sportrends.com/excel%20program.htm
The PR's are listed here.
Last edited by Formulawiz; 10-30-09 at 05:35 PM.
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10-30-09, 05:47 PM
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#2
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Nba pr spreadsheet
Attached is the NBA PR Spreadsheet. Again I would like to mention that we need those gurus who can automate the spreadsheet so that it automatically enters the scores and odds into it.
As soon as the NCAAB schedule is ready I will be uploading
GL
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10-31-09, 03:03 AM
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#3
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Hey formulawiz the spreadsheet looks awesome I look forward to playing this PR system throughout the year and see how it goes! I was just wondering do the PR scores get adjusted throughout the year to reflect the changing landscape of the league and are the values in the xls files accurate for the 09-10 season?
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10-31-09, 06:21 AM
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#4
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thank you formula ... I will probably keep 3 records to start with... one for the overall picks, one for the H/A and one were I combine both (unless both disagree)... but we wont start to post plays until mid november until we have enough data for the new season...
GL
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10-31-09, 07:26 AM
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#5
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I usually dont make any plays until each team has played about 10 games. Its funny last night if you used sportrends software PR's it went 3-1. I hope this is an indication of how we killed them last year and prior years.
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10-31-09, 10:08 AM
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#6
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formula you would have went 4-1 with the spreadsheet last night... if you had played every game so far with last years data plus the data until the day of the game...overall would be 3-9, H/A 7-3 and combined 7-9... just as an info... but your right, we need a min of 10 games per team this year to make official picks...
GL
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10-31-09, 10:21 AM
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#7
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Lets not confuse the Excel spreadsheet PR's with the software PR's which are much better.
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11-01-09, 06:01 AM
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#8
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Hey, I know I said this in the Nfl forum but do you mind posting picks and results just to Helps others and keep track yourself?
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11-01-09, 08:53 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shahbucks
Hey, I know I said this in the Nfl forum but do you mind posting picks and results just to Helps others and keep track yourself?
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As I mentioned in the NFL and NCAAF forum we are not making any plays yet in the NBA, its too early. All I am doing now is monitoring the plays. Secondly, if for some reason we cant post the plays all you have to do is go to sportrends website calculate the PR's Overall and use the rules established. It cant get any easier and we all should get the same results.
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11-02-09, 06:17 AM
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#10
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NBA went 1-0 yesterday using the softwares PR system. Again I am just monitoring it and its looking awful good.
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11-02-09, 09:49 AM
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#11
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formula
spreadsheet was even better yesterday: overall went 3-1, H/A went 2-0, combined (plays were at least one system says it was a play) went 3-0... and were both systems selected a play they agreed on was 1-0...
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11-02-09, 03:55 PM
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#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterpan19
formula
spreadsheet was even better yesterday: overall went 3-1, H/A went 2-0, combined (plays were at least one system says it was a play) went 3-0... and were both systems selected a play they agreed on was 1-0...
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I hope we have a n even better year then we had last year in the NBA and col
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11-02-09, 08:12 PM
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#13
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formulawiz, when using the program were do you have your values set to, example points scored, 3 pointers, Total, ETC ETC you can have a totall of 100 points to use. Just wondering what you found was the most profitable and what formula you use that showed the best result from last year?
Thanks for the great information formulawiz and others, great idea
gator101
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11-03-09, 08:56 AM
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#14
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If your talking about creating formulas thats something you have to mess around with because there are tons of formulas that can be created. I predominantly use the software Power Ratings which is the most important stat I use before making a play. Of course there are other systems I look at such as the spreadsheet PR's, matchups and etc which are used to confirm.
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11-03-09, 08:59 AM
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#15
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ok thanks formulawiz for your reply
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11-03-09, 11:22 AM
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#16
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Hey Formula,
I reviewed last years NBA thread to see if i can answer my own questions... it appeared that the thread used the NBA excel spreadsheet that was created and used the PR's that are provided on trends's website to confirm and supplement plays. Are the software PRs that you have referenced in this thread from the basketball prophet software? I just wanted to confirm that you would use these software PR's as a starting point....Also, any recommendations on how to best use it as you can go back up to 20 games and do you usually add the 3 points for homecourt.
thanks for the help!!
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11-03-09, 03:26 PM
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#17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madness
Hey Formula,
I reviewed last years NBA thread to see if i can answer my own questions... it appeared that the thread used the NBA excel spreadsheet that was created and used the PR's that are provided on trends's website to confirm and supplement plays. Are the software PRs that you have referenced in this thread from the basketball prophet software? I just wanted to confirm that you would use these software PR's as a starting point....Also, any recommendations on how to best use it as you can go back up to 20 games and do you usually add the 3 points for homecourt.
thanks for the help!!
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The plays posted here by Peter are from the spreadsheet only. The software plays are discussed the next day only after the games have been played to make sure those who have the software are all on the same page.
The software plays use the same rules as outlined at the beginning of this thread.
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11-04-09, 01:31 PM
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#18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Formulawiz
As I mentioned in the NFL and NCAAF forum we are not making any plays yet in the NBA, its too early. All I am doing now is monitoring the plays. Secondly, if for some reason we cant post the plays all you have to do is go to sportrends website calculate the PR's Overall and use the rules established. It cant get any easier and we all should get the same results.
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Ok. I didn't read the whole football thread as I should have. Thanks and I will be doing the same.
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11-09-09, 07:35 PM
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#19
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Rule #1: always be glad for what you get
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Formula, Peter
You've got me interested enough that I've gone and purchased the software. I have a question about how you're using software PR: The software itself shows only home and away PR, but not a combined PR. I infer from what I read above that if you're using software PR then you're averaging the home and away numbers into an overall PR before you add the line. Is that right ?
thanks!
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11-10-09, 10:03 AM
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#20
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I will offer to take a look at automating these spreadsheets. I'll have to find a website that will let me pull the scores and lines down into an excel format. once I have them in there, it should be a simple process of matching up dates and team names. If I get it working, we should be able to port it to the other sportrends spreadsheets.
Also, is the NCAA sheet ready yet? I'd like to start monitoring it as well.
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11-10-09, 10:48 AM
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#21
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Does anyone have a record from prior years or from other sports?
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11-10-09, 11:55 AM
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#22
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WHO POST THE PICKS?
or we must do it ourselfs in the spreadheet?
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11-10-09, 01:46 PM
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#23
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the spreadsheet looks amazingly hard to understand....damn...I'm trying but I just can reach........I feel so stupid right now! Not even the help page that Formula posted helped, bcs the figures in the examples are diferent from the excel boards that we have in the spreadsheet!
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11-10-09, 06:00 PM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joanapoker
the spreadsheet looks amazingly hard to understand....damn...I'm trying but I just can reach........I feel so stupid right now! Not even the help page that Formula posted helped, bcs the figures in the examples are diferent from the excel boards that we have in the spreadsheet!
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Dont feel too bad, I dont even know where to begin in filling out information. I feel like a tard.
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11-10-09, 06:11 PM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joanapoker
the spreadsheet looks amazingly hard to understand....damn...I'm trying but I just can reach........I feel so stupid right now! Not even the help page that Formula posted helped, bcs the figures in the examples are diferent from the excel boards that we have in the spreadsheet!
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The Power ranking in there is outdated. We need to buy the Power ranking software from SportsTrend.
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11-11-09, 01:12 PM
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#26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff Webster
Does anyone have a record from prior years or from other sports?
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I know it was over 60% for the spreadsheet and even a bit better for the software
Quote:
Originally Posted by joanapoker
WHO POST THE PICKS?
or we must do it ourselfs in the spreadheet?
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its still "preseason"... not enough data yet... we need at least 10 games... thats when I will post the plays right here...
Quote:
Originally Posted by joanapoker
the spreadsheet looks amazingly hard to understand....damn...I'm trying but I just can reach........I feel so stupid right now! Not even the help page that Formula posted helped, bcs the figures in the examples are diferent from the excel boards that we have in the spreadsheet!
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its not complicated... under stats you enter the data and under ratings you calculate the PR and thats where you get the picks too...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff Webster
Dont feel too bad, I dont even know where to begin in filling out information. I feel like a tard.
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...easy... use table data... and you got date, home team, away team, and you can enter the score and the spread... its that easy...
Quote:
Originally Posted by tnnt
The Power ranking in there is outdated. We need to buy the Power ranking software from SportsTrend.
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you just need to enter all the games that were played up to now... and just like that your up to date again
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11-11-09, 02:33 PM
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#27
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what line goes into the spreadsheet? the opening or closing line? thanks peter for clearing everything up because i was lost before but now im working on getting my spreadsheet up to date. thanks
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11-11-09, 03:01 PM
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#28
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Whom ever the nerd is who figures out the spreadsheet please post the pick........ Thank you!
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11-11-09, 04:01 PM
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#29
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also when i try and compute all power rankings i get an error.. any idea why?
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11-11-09, 04:43 PM
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#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Plu$Money
what line goes into the spreadsheet? the opening or closing line? thanks peter for clearing everything up because i was lost before but now im working on getting my spreadsheet up to date. thanks
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closing line... as we always try to make our picks 15-30 min b4 the game starts... not earlier...
Quote:
Originally Posted by dchecks
Whom ever the nerd is who figures out the spreadsheet please post the pick........ Thank you!
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no official plays yet... as soon as teams played 10 games I will start to post the plays in here....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plu$Money
also when i try and compute all power rankings i get an error.. any idea why?
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...what date did you enter ?... PM me if you need more help with it...
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11-12-09, 04:10 AM
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#31
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I just talked to formula yesterday and we will start next week on Monday to post the NBA PR sheet plays in here... I also did a little bit of tracking for the still pretty young season to see how we might do... I used last years data and data of this year until the day of the play... here is what I came up with so far:
Overall 19-20 (48.7%)
H/A 25-13 (65.8%)
both agree 8-4 (66.6%)
so it looked pretty promising and we should hit around 60% again this year... I also know that sportrends software did pretty good too, but I will only post the sheet plays in here...
GL
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11-12-09, 06:24 PM
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#32
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Hey guys,
I followed along for baseball this year...sorry I didnt have much to add due time constraints but thanks to everyone for a nice season.
Formula-for the software do you know how many games (best bet type in baseball) we will wager on on a weekly/monthly/season basis? I know its a guestimate and can be a % of games. I just want to get my money management all set up.
thx
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11-12-09, 08:01 PM
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#33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterpan19
you just need to enter all the games that were played up to now... and just like that your up to date again
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Thanks for replying. So just enter all the scores, the closing lines in "stats" then go to "rating" and press "compute power averages" and we get our new PR? Also, where do we look to know whether to bet with or against the spread? Thanks.
Last edited by tnnt; 11-12-09 at 08:45 PM.
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11-13-09, 04:39 AM
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#34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tnnt
Thanks for replying. So just enter all the scores, the closing lines in "stats" then go to "rating" and press "compute power averages" and we get our new PR? Also, where do we look to know whether to bet with or against the spread? Thanks.
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the sheet will give you the plays auto... so you just have to enter the spreads 30 to 15 min b4 the game starts and your good to go...
and you gotta press the button "compute power averafes based upon date"... make sure to enter a date b4 the season started e.g. 18-Jun-2009... and your good to go...
will start to post plays on Monday...
GL
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11-13-09, 03:50 PM
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#35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bombCanada
Formula, Peter
You've got me interested enough that I've gone and purchased the software. I have a question about how you're using software PR: The software itself shows only home and away PR, but not a combined PR. I infer from what I read above that if you're using software PR then you're averaging the home and away numbers into an overall PR before you add the line. Is that right ?
thanks!
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No there is no Overal, just H/A and use the same rules.
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