Nba & ncaab excel pr spreadsheet picks
Before I begin with all the rules as how to use the NBA Power Rating System I would like to mention that I did not create this system and will not take credit for it. This system was developed by Sportrends and they deserve all the credit. For those of you who followed along last year we had a very good year and hope to continue again this year.
It would be nice if one of you gurus could automate this spreadsheet so it automatically updates the scores and lines prior to making our picks.
Pete who has helped with baseball will be keeping the records and giving out the plays. I also believe the spreadsheet will automatically keep records for both Overall and H/A plays.
Now lets get on with the rules posted last year.
1. Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off. Like to see what the public is doing
2. Never play a game with a double digit line. The win/loss seems to be at 50% so I stay away. Maybe we should not rule this out and keep an eye on it
3. Dont play any game where team with lower PR is laying pts. Keep an eye on these games.
4. Only play games where PR's in any matchup are 1 or more pts apart.
5. I have also tried adding 3 points for the HC but found it drastically limits the number of plays due to the fact these power ratings are right on and do show where the value is. Again you can experiment with it.
6. Only play games that fall outside a 2 point overlay. If you look at the HOU/LAK game last night it will be obvious to you. Always use last column "Overall PR", LAK PR was 108 - HOU PR 102.5 = LAK = 5.5 (always round up or down). Now add the line of -4, LAK becomes a 1.5. You see the value was not outside the 2 point overlay. The bookies were slick by holding the line at 4 to 4.5 and not going to 5 or more. Therefore HOU was not a play.
7. For those of you who have purchased sportrends software and use the PR's, pass any game if the play is opposite. If you still want to make a play on a particular team use sportrends software PR's, they are more accurate.
8. If the majority of casinos are in agreement with the same line thats what we use.
9. My feeling is that injuries are irrelevant for the following reasons. The bookies take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjust the lines accordingly anyway. We all know that the lines for a particular team would be different if a starter were out as compared if he were playing. Again look at the HOU/LAK game. HOU had 2 major starters out and was a 4 point dog. Do you really think HOU would have been a 4 point dog if all their starters played. No Way!!
Ill try to think of other things as we go along. I am sure I am missing something. By the way if you want a good explanation as how the spreadsheet works go tohttp://www.sportrends.com/excel%20program.htm
The PR's are listed here.
Originally Posted by Shahbucks
