Sports Betting Professor NCAA Football Betting System
After mining all the available NCAA Football data for the last 15 years, we found the
keys to a successful college football betting system: If you follow this system exactly, you
can expect to hit 90% of your NCAA football bets.
During the course of our research on college football, we found out one piece of earth
shattering information that will change the way you bet on College Football forever …
YOU SHOULD NEVER BET ON A FAVORITE IN NCAA FOOTBALL. That’s right, I
said NEVER!
To do the research for NCAA football, I used the same point spreads as in NFL football,
between 1 pt. and 13 pt. favorites. Those games with four and five touchdown point
spreads did not occur often enough to warrant serious consideration.
Looking at both home and away favorites, I discovered there wasn’t one number at
which they achieved the magical 52.7% winning percentage needed to turn a profit. Not
one! Road favorites fared particularly poorly: At only two of the point spreads did they
even cover more than 45% of the time. That’s why I’ll say it again … YOU
SHOULD NEVER BET ON A FAVORITE IN NCAA FOOTBALL.
Later on I’ll go into further detail about how to make the bets, but first let’s go over the
money management of the bets. For the purposes of our example, we’re working with
10 cent juice, or ‘vig.’ This means you risk $110 for every $100 you want to win. There
are 3 bets in the system.
Bet A – Your normal bet amount. If you bet to win $100 or $500, this is what you want to
start with.
Bet B – If you lose Bet A, you make Bet B to make up for any losses from Bet A plus
any profit you would have achieved from Bet A. So if your Bet A win amount was $100,
your Bet B win amount can be $210.
Bet C – In case Bet B fails, you make Bet C to make up for any loss you’ve suffered
from Bet A (in this example $110) plus Bet B (in this example $231) plus profit you would
have achieved from Bet A ($100). So this means the win amount for Bet C can be $441.
There are no further bets; if you lose Bet C then the bet is lost. But over the last 15
years our research shows there is almost no chance of that happening.
The goal of the Sports Betting Professor is to make you a winner at the end of the
NCAA Football season. If you follow the system above, I guarantee that you will finish
the season winning over 90% of your bets. However, as you can see, you have to wait
until your first bet goes final before making another bet. With NCAA Football we can
take advantage of the fact that games are usually played five days a week. Together
with the NFL system, we have football being played seven days a week so betting
opportunities abound!
In addition to using the formula to guarantee a 90% winning percentage, you can also
make single bets at our recommended point spreads. There are individual point
spread numbers that return much higher than our magic number of 52.7%. If you
stick to these numbers you will also make a nice profit at the end of the season. Keep in
mind though, the further you stray
from the formula, the lower your winning % will be. So our next step is to outline the key
numbers that you want to be on.
Before I do that I want to remind you that if you haven’t done so already, you can
eliminate any guesswork or fear that you aren’t following the system correctly by having
the picks emailed to you instead of having to figure them out for yourself. To take
advantage of this feature click below:
http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com/step/yesstep2.
html
Now let’s get to those key numbers that have been statistically proven to turn a profit
over the last 15 years. I have listed the point spreads with their corresponding win %
and I’ve also included how those numbers turn even more in your favor when you buy a
½ pt. You can find point spreads at
http://www.vegasinsider.com/odds/. Here is how
you read the ‘Buy a ½ point column’:
Yes – If you’re making a bet at this point spread, you should always buy a ½ point.
You Should – Buying a ½ point at this number is worth the increase in juice.
You Can – Buying a ½ point at this number will avoid the possibility of a push, but it
won’t really change your winning amount when you factor in the extra juice.
No – Buying a ½ point at this number may increase your win % , but the extra juice will
offset those winnings. Do not buy a ½ pt. here.
Road Underdogs
Point Spread Win % Buy a ½ point Increases Win % To
+6 Yes 54.6
+7 53.4 you should 56.7
+8 56.7 No 57.4
+9 57.4 you should 60.0
+10 59.2 you can 61.2
+11 61.2 you should 64.9
+12 64.9 No 66.2
+13 66.2 you can 67.9
As you can see, once you reach +6, it’s a good time to bet Road Underdogs in NCAA
Football. On the flip side, there is no point spread from 1
to 13
where it makes sense
to bet on the Home Favorite. At 1,
Favorites cover only 50.8% of the time and the
percentages go down from there. Once again, keep in mind the winning % you need to
achieve to make a profit is 52.7%.
Next we’ll take a look at Road Favorites because with these numbers we get to see one
of the most crucial findings in all our research: In college football, it is almost
always a good bet to take the Home Underdog. This is in DIRECT
CONTRADICTION to one of the main tenets of the NFL betting system.
Here are the numbers for Home Underdogs in NCAA Football:
Home Underdogs
Point Spread Win % Buy a ½ point Increases Win % To
+1 53.8 No 55.4
+2 55.4 No 57.2
+3 57.1 you should* 60.0
+5 53.6 No 54.4
+6 54.4 No 56.1
+7 55.6 Yes 59.7
+8 59.7 you can 61.5
+9 61.5 No 62.5
+10 61.8 you should 64.6
+11 64.6 you should 67.4
+12 67.4 No 67.8
+13 67.8 you should 71.1
*Depends on what you have to pay for juice. Usually it’s an extra 10 cents juice to buy a ½ point but some sports books will make
you pay an extra 20 cents juice to buy off of 3. If that is the case you should not buy the ½ point. If it’s only an extra10 cents juice,
you should buy the ½.
The percentages for Road Favorites are even more horrible than they are for Home
Favorites. At 4
Road Favorites cover 46.4% of the time and at every other point spread
in our table, the winning percentage for Road Favorites is lower than that. That is why
YOU SHOULD NEVER BET ON A FAVORITE IN NCAA
FOOTBALL.
Let’s use an example to show how our system would work when using the NCAA
Football System. This illustrates the best way to maximize profit over the course of the
season.
Let’s say the Tuesday night game has Ball St. visiting Ohio U. On the betting line, Ball St. is a 7
pt. favorite over Ohio. Checking our betting chart we see that Home Underdogs getting 7 points
cover 55.6% of the time. If you just made a straight bet on Ohio to lose by less than 7 points,
you’d be wagering $110 to win $100. However, in this instance the chart tells us you should buy
½ point to move the line to +7.5. Now you’ve upped your winning percentage to 59.7%. At most
sports books, this will cost you an extra 10 cents in juice so it would be $120 to win $100. This
would be Bet A. If Ohio covers the point spread by either winning outright or losing by less than
7.5 points, you win your bet and look for a new bet series to start.
However, if Ohio did not cover the point spread, this would be a loss for Bet A. Next, you look at
the point spreads for the Wednesday night NCAA game. Let’s say that Arizona is visiting
UCLA. The road team, Arizona, is a 2 pt. favorite and checking our NCAA chart we see that
Home Underdogs getting 2 points cover 55.4% of the time. In this instance the chart says you
should not buy any points. This time you could bet to win $220. If UCLA loses by less than 2
points or wins the game outright, you win the bet and move on to a fresh betting series.
If UCLA does not cover the point spread then you have to move onto Bet C in the system.
Thursday night’s NCAA game shows South Florida favored by 22 points over Syracuse. WE
WOULD STAY OFF OF THIS GAME BECAUSE IT DOESN’T FIT IN THE PARAMETERS
OF OUR SYSTEM. This is for a couple of reasons. First of all, when spreads get that high you
are just talking about BAD teams and there is no worse feeling than having to root on a terrible
team when your money is on the line. The second reason is these larger spreads did not occur
often enough to give us a reliable data sample.
Instead you take a look at the Friday night game and Pittsburgh is at Univ. of Miami and the
‘Canes are a 10 point favorite. Checking the chart, Road Underdogs cover 59.2% of the time
when getting 10 points. You would then make a play on Pittsburgh to lose by less than 10 points.
You could buy the ½ point here to ensure you don’t have a push but you don’t have to. The bet
amount in this example can be to win $462. After Pittsburgh wins the bet, you would begin
another bet series, reducing your win amount to $100 (or whatever your original bet amount is).
If Pittsburgh does not cover the spread in that game, then you would still start a fresh betting
series; there is no Bet D at a higher win amount. But here is the really good news: Based on the
research, most of the time, you will not even need to make a Bet C because Bet B wins 80% of
the time! And, if you do have to make a Bet C, the failure rate on that is less than 10%!
So now you have the complete list of reliable betting numbers to look for. Betting on NCAA
Football you want to concentrate on 3 major factors.
· NEVER BET THE FAVORITE
· Look for Road Dogs getting 613
points
· Look for just about any Home Dog getting 113
points, excluding +4
And here is the betting system in a nutshell:
1. Check the point spreads and mark down any games that have numbers that
fit the system.
2. Out of those numbers, check the tables listed here to see which numbers
have the highest winning percentage.
3. Check the injury reports. If the team you are considering on betting on has a key
injury (starting QB, starting RB or a leading tackler) then you should pass on this
game and move on to the next one.
4. Make your Bet A on which team has the most favorable odds.
5. If you lose Bet A, repeat the process for Bet B.
6. If you lose Bet B, repeat the process for Bet C.
There is one final point to remember. To guarantee the high success rate of the
Sports Betting Professor you have to stick to the system exactly as it’s laid out here (the
Bet A, Bet B, Bet C format). To be a successful bettor takes discipline and patience. If
you win Bet A, do not double up on your next game. Start a new bet series with the
same original bet amount. Only this discipline can guarantee the extremely high
winning percentage.
That being said, I realize that some of you may want to bet on more than one game at a
time. And that’s why, it’s crucial to point out:
***You do not need to stick to the system exactly to enjoy profitable results***
As we have mentioned over and over, the MAGIC NUMBER to remember is 52.7%.
This is the win percentage you need to achieve to make a profit betting on football. If
you prefer to move outside the system, stick to betting on the numbers I have given you
and you will profit.
Once again I want to remind you that if you haven’t done so already, you can eliminate
any guesswork or fear that you aren’t following the system correctly by having the picks
emailed to you instead of having to figure them out for yourself. To take advantage of
this feature click below:
http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com/step/yesstep2.
html
Lastly, remember that betting on sports is supposed to be fun and profitable. Never bet
more than you can afford to lose. Now go and enjoy the winnings!
**As in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. However, the NCAA added the 2 point conversion
system in 1958, so the point scoring system has remained unchanged for the entire period of our research. Therefore, because of
the size of the data sample we had to work with, there is every reason to believe these trends will hold up.