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Hawaii Bowl Preview

Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET

Arizona State (7-5) vs. Hawaii (10-3)

If you’re not out with friends or family on Christmas Eve, then you should tune into ESPN to catch this one, if only to get a chance to watch the Hawaii offense. Quarterback Colt Brennan leads a squad that was the best in the country this year, averaging 47.3 points and 549.9 yards per game. Brennan threw for truly ridiculous numbers – 4,990 yards and 53 touchdowns. Thanks to those fireworks, and because they have the obvious home turf advantage, Hawaii was installed as a 10-point favorite. Despite the fact that almost two-thirds of bets placed have been on Hawaii, that point spread has fallen to as low as 6.5, indicating that some sharp action is likely on Arizona State.

The total for this game is very high, thanks to Hawaii’s explosiveness and Arizona State’s often unrealized potential. It’s currently sitting between 73 and 74.5. If history is any indicator, then Hawaii will do its part to surpass the total – in 2003 and 2004 the team scored 54 and 59 points in this same bowl. Arizona State averaged 27 points per game, putting the combined averages of the two teams right at the number. Hawaii has gone over in 21 of their last 28 games on their island.

Hawaii comes into this game off a disappointing loss to Oregon State. Before that they had won nine in a row, with a solid 5-2-1 record ATS. The 35-32 loss to the Beavers was concerning given that they are in the Pac-10 with Arizona State, but it’s less worrying when you considered that the Beavers crushed the Sun Devils 44-10 when they met. The other common opponent for the two teams was Nevada. The Sun Devils beat them 52-21 in the second week of the season, while Hawaii came out ahead, 41-34, on Oct. 7. Past meetings between these two teams are useless for handicapping purposes – Arizona State is 5-1, but the last meeting was in 1979.

Despite Hawaii’s more impressive numbers, they suffer from the same criticism that plagues most strong mid-major teams – strength of schedule. Arizona State played the ninth best schedule in the country, while Hawaii may have put up inflated numbers by facing only the 101st best slate of teams. Though Arizona played a much tougher schedule, they certainly didn’t excel against the best teams they faced. Dirk Koetter was an impossibly dismal 2-19 against ranked opponents in his time at ASU.
To make a decision on Arizona State you have to put a value on how much of a distraction their coaching situation will be, and how well they will perform for their outgoing coach. After a disastrous year on the public relations front, Dirk Koetter was deservedly fired and has been replaced by Dennis Erickson, the man who seems determined to coach every team in the Pac-10. The problem is that Koetter is still coaching the team through this game. You could theorize that the team will play hard to send their coach out on a good note, or you could deduce that the team will tune out the coach who has no lasting recourse for poor performance.
If you’re a believer in trends for bowl handicapping then this game presents some interesting opportunities. Though Hawaii clearly has the better passing offense in the game, favorites with the better passing offense were just 2-10 ATS last year. On the other hand, underdogs with the better pass defense, like Arizona State, were 11-3 ATS last bowl season.
Those trends don’t help the case for Hawaii, but there is reason for hope. Given the way the offense has been playing, Hawaii is almost certain to pass for more yards than their opponents, as they did all year. Arizona State was out-passed five times in the last ten games. They lost all five games, and they only covered once. If Arizona State can find a way to contain Brennan, or if QB Rudy Carpenter can find the game he had last year, but which has largely escaped him this year, then they should be in good shape. The Sun Devils covered their last five games when they topped the passing stats.

Game: Arizona St. @ Hawaii on Dec 24, 2006 8:00PM

Prediction: Hawaii

Reason: Arizona State’s season got off to a tumultuous start in late August. Head coach Dirk Koetter announced that senior Sam Keller had won the heated competition for the starting quarterback position. Less than 48 hours later, Koetter reneged on that decision, installing sophomore Rudy Carpenter as the starting quarterback, citing a meeting with team leaders supporting the underclassmen. Keller immediately announced that he was transferring to Nebraska; Carpenter immediately failed to live up to the enormous expectations placed upon his shoulders.

The Sun Devils beat up on Northern Arizona, Nevada and Colorado before their struggles began. They suffered through a three game losing streak to Cal, Oregon and USC that shook the team’s confidence to the core. After beating lowly Stanford and Washington, Arizona State alternated losses and wins in their final four games of the regular season. After their season ending win, athletic director Rob Spear told Koetter that he would not be back to coach a seventh season in Tempe, citing a 2-19 record against ranked teams, a 1-14 record against Cal, USC and UCLA, and a 21-28 overall record in PAC-10 play for his decision. Former Miami, Oregon State and Idaho head coach Dennis Erickson was hired to fill the job this past week, but Koetter will coach the team for their bowl game, creating a very awkward dynamic for a team that has suffered through more than their share of chemistry problems.

On a good day, Arizona State is capable of beating even an elite level team. The aforementioned Carpenter had interception problems, throwing 15 picks this year after tossing only two interceptions as a true freshman in 2005. But Carpenter still threw for more than 2300 yards, improving mightily down the stretch as running backs Ryan Torain and Keegan Herring emerged to balance the offense, averaging 5.5 yards per carry between them. Ten different receivers caught at least one touchdown pass, led by NFL prospect tight end Zack Miller. Defensively, the Sun Devils clamped down on the run, holding their last six opponents under 3.6 yards per carry. But, again, consistency was an issue, particularly in their three blowout losses, where Cal, Oregon and Oregon State hung 49, 48 and 44 points on the ASU defense.

Hawaii enjoyed a phenomenal season against a weak WAC slate of opponents. Head coach June Jones has developed a high octane offense that the opponents in his conference have a very hard time containing. In their season opener at Alabama, the Warriors were throwing into the end zone on the final series of the game with a chance to take an SEC opponent into overtime. The Warriors also showed well in their toughest road tilt, at Boise, again with a chance to send the contest into overtime in the latter stages of the ballgame. At home, Hawaii was a perfect 7-0, winning every game by a touchdown or more until their season ending defeat at the hands of Oregon State.

Quarterback Colt Brennan is going to break the David Klinger’s all time NCAA record for most passing touchdowns in a single season in this bowl game, needing only two touchdown passes to break the mark. Brennan is just ten passing yards shy of 5000 for the campaign. The Warriors offense was so powerful this season that as a team, they punted less than twice per game for the entire season. Five different receivers caught at least 50 passes. Beefy running back Nate Ilaoa bowled over defenders, averaging nearly eight yards per carry. But Hawaii’s defense remains suspect at best, after allowing Purdue and Oregon State to move the ball at will against them in their final two regular season contests.

If Arizona State shows up with their ‘A’ game, they could win this game outright. If the Sun Devils do not give a stellar effort for their departing head coach, Hawaii could hang 54 or 59 in their own stadium, their point totals from their last two Hawaii Bowl appearances. Expect the latter, as opposed to the former – we can expect maximum effort only from the home team in this venue on this day. Take Hawaii

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