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Wednesday, November 29, 2006

4:35 PM PT/7:35 PM ET

3 STAR SELECTION (3% of Bankroll)

New Jersey +3 over BOSTON

The Nets look to halt a 6-game losing streak this evening when they visit the Atlantic Division-rival Celtics. New Jersey is in the midst of its longest losing streak since dropping 9 in a row exactly 2 years ago. Last night, Richard Jefferson had a game-high 27 points and Vince Carter scored 25 points but it wasn’t enough as the Nets fell to the Bobcats.

The Celtics, meanwhile, bounced back from a lopsided loss to the Knicks on Friday and ended a 2-game losing streak with Saturday's 111-98 victory at Milwaukee. Boston now actually leads the Atlantic Division by a half game over Toronto, New Jersey and Philadelphia, so first place is at stake tonight when the Celts welcome New Jersey.

The Nets are clearly the superior team with superior talent, but they have been very inconsistent. They play one good half and look unbeatable. They play one bad half and look awful. Here, they should give Boston their undivided attention. New Jersey has had good success in recent years against the Celtics, beating them 11-of-15 times in the regular season, including 3-of-4 last season. Plus, the Nets knocked Boston from the playoffs in 2002 and '03. They have also won 2 of 3 and 4 of their last 7 trips to Beantown. Boston will be uncomfortable as a favorite here against an opponent they’ve struggled with, as they are 1-11 SU (-8.1 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-12.4 ppg) when favored with a TOTAL of 204 points or less vs. a conference opponent favored in the last 5 matchups.

New Jersey had to be embarrassed by getting beat on their home floor by Charlotte, which should serve as a big wake-up call. The league is 5-1 SU (+8 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+10.2 ppg) with less than 2 days rest off a favorite SU loss to the expansion Bobcats.

The Celtics are certainly not a team that handles prosperity well. They are an atrocious 0-12 ATS (-8.9 ppg) as a home favorite of more than 1 point off a road SU win, while the Nets are 5-0 ATS in the reverse role vs. conference opponents. Off a road SU win in which they trailed by 14+ points, Boston is 0-9 SU (-12.7 ppg) & 0-9 ATS (-11.1 ppg) with a TOTAL under 209 points.

Boston is the more rested team here; however, that’s not likely to benefit them. With a TOTAL under 214 points and 2+ days rest off a SU win, Boston is 1-14 SU (-10.1 ppg) & 0-15 ATS (-6.4 ppg) when not favored by 5+ points. The Celtics simply won’t be able to handle the pressure here of division leader against an opponent that has had their number. The Nets should finally should up to play 48 minutes and take back that division lead.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NEW JERSEY 97 BOSTON 92

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: NEW JERSEY 106 BOSTON 103


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