Stock Market 4-30-08

RageWizard · 04-30-2008, 10:46 AM

I am placing another short play on with XLB @$42.62 and the stop will be at $46.88. I am going to put up an excel sheet so that my picks can be followed. The records will start from the start of the second quarter (April 1, 2008). I have been accumulating the short plays as of late and will probably continue to do so after the Fed speaks today.

RageWizard · 04-30-2008, 03:34 PM

Here is a screen shot of the excel file that I am currently building. It shows all of the trades that I made or am making starting on April 1, 2008. It should make it easier to track my progress for the coming months. I will be actually uploading the excel file from time to time with a pivot table in it so that things can be shown in various ways, but for now it is just a screen shot.

RageWizard · 05-01-2008, 11:02 AM

I'm still adding to my short positions and now is a good time to add another 100 shares of XLY at $32.85 with a stop at #36.11. With the rebate checks coming out the market is putting money in the consumer discretionary stocks. It has been on a big run this morning, it started down $0.75 right off the bat and then has been saring ever since, now it is up $1.40 for the day.

RageWizard · 05-01-2008, 11:16 AM

I'm going to short 100 shares of the tech etf also at $24.52 with a stop at $26.97. Tech did the same thing as the consumer ETF this morning.

RageWizard · 05-01-2008, 01:52 PM

O.K. the market finally took off today so I'm jumping in with still more short plays.

XLK short 150 @ $24.73 stop $27.20
XLY short 150 @ $33.24 stop $36.56
XLF short 150 @ $27.44 stop $30.18

RageWizard · 05-06-2008, 03:18 PM

I continue to put in the short plays today. Just shorted 100 XLB @$43.78 with a stop at $48.16.

I also shorted some more XLF 100 shares at $ 27.42 with a stop at $30.14.

In a couple of minutes I will put up all the different shorts that are now in play since the start of last week.

RageWizard · 05-07-2008, 08:53 AM

O.K. so a couple of minutes turned into a day. I'm going to admit to being an excel tard. I can't seem to get the pivot table to look like I would like, and it just won't add the stuff up for me. Thankfully I have a calculator so below is the first picture of the pivot table that shows some of the short positions that I have been picking up in the last couple of weeks since 04/23/08.

RageWizard · 05-07-2008, 09:14 AM

Here is the rest of the story below. Since I can get the spreadsheet to add this stuff up yet and no-one in the office can help me, I added it up manually. I will be hacking around until I get the pivot table to look like I like with all the calculations that are neccessary.

Since these are all short plays the verbal dictation will go like:

XLF has 550 shares shorted with a combined value of $14,943.00 or $27.17 a share after fees.

XLK has 450 shares shorted with a combined value of $10,996.50 or $24.44 a share after fees.

XLY has 550 shares shorted with a combined value of $18,008.00 or $32.74 a share after fees.

XLB has 400 shares shorted with a combined value of $17,310.00 or $43.28 a share after fees.

DIA has 100 shares shorted with a combined value of $12,889.00 or $128.89 a share after fees.

A grand total of $74,146.50 in short plays. I stated that I was going to keep increasing the shorts until I was on the hook for about $80,000.00. With 10% of $74,146.50 being $7,414.65, the total in play is $81,561.15.
The stop loss numbers for each individual play is 10% so the most that I am actually risking is the $7,414.65.
Depending on market conditions, I may add to some of my short plays such as XLB or any of the others if there is a substancial upward movement in that ETF.

As for the excel pivot table itself, here is my plea to all of you gurus out there who know this shit. I just want it to do 2 things.
1. Display all of the data whether or not is is duplicated in each line.
2. Add up or average the columns that involve numbers.

If anyone can help with this, it would save me some hacking time, and I would be very appreciative.

RageWizard · 05-08-2008, 10:41 AM

Alright my only long play PDS has made a nice move so I am moving my stop to $27.25 to lock in profits. It keeps moving up quite nicely today so I may readjust as the day goes on.

RageWizard · 05-08-2008, 10:52 AM

At this time I am adding to my XLB short position at $43.75 for 100 shares. The stop loss will be still at 10% at $48.13. I now have 500 shares of XLB shorted.

RageWizard · 05-09-2008, 07:29 AM

Well the PDS stock came back down and went below my $27.25 stop target so of course the 100 shares were sold off. I still like this stock, and with the market set to drop this morning like Heather Cummings in a fellatio-a-thon, I will be watching to see if it has relative strength or weakness. Below I have put up the updated list of stock plays that I have going so you can tell for yourself how the PDS trade went. If the market opens significantly down as it looks like it will now, I will be checking the XLF shorts to see if there is a chance to churn some butter and buy back shares this morning only to short again later in the day after a rebound.

RageWizard · 05-14-2008, 03:34 PM

The market continues to go up and disregard the realities of the economy in my opinion. The markets have had some of the lightest volume days that it has had this year while going up and just about everything is over bought. I just added to most of my short plays:

XLK shorted 150 @ $25.13 stop loss at $27.64
XLY shorted 100 @ $33.43 stop loss at $36.77
XLB shorted 100 @ $45.00 stop loss at $49.50

At this time, I believe that a pull back will come some day, and I will continue to short the rallys when the volume is as small as it has been. I gave all my short plays 10% stop loss so there is still room to grow until it comes crashing down hopefully.

RageWizard · 05-14-2008, 04:03 PM

O.K. here is the chart that shows all of the positions that I have going now. I'm still playing with the pivot table and I am getting closer to getting the setup that I want so bear with me for that and it will eventually be easy to tell all of the different postion totals in one glance

RageWizard · 05-20-2008, 03:54 PM

O.K. people, time to buy back 300 shares of XLF before the close today at $25.50. I will post the spreadsheet to update the tally. I think the plunger team will show up tomorrow and buy all the futures to move the market back up tomorrow. At that time, I will short 300 shares of XLF and continue to see if the rally can continue. The market was at the 200 day moving average before todays sell off and patience was the key. Now we need to see if the market can go above the 200 day moving average with volume. If it does, I will turn around and cover all the short plays and start to go long. I don't think it will happen though.

RageWizard · 05-20-2008, 04:10 PM

Alright here is the updated list of stocks that I have going now. I finally moved into the positive territory today. Hopefully tomorrow there will be a little reboung in the morning so I can put more short plays on for XLF. If not I still have some shares of XLF shorted so it won't be that bad.