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Thread Tools | Display Modes |
05-17-2008, 04:02 AM
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#4 (permalink) | |
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SBR Sharp
Join Date: 04-15-08
Posts: 455
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Quote:
 na,seriously.good luck on your plays. |
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05-17-2008, 05:56 PM
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#7 (permalink) |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,443
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My best bet for this week Kansas City +8 versus Orlando
At 2-8, no one is giving KC any chance versus 7-4 Orlando. The line opened at Orlando-7.5, and has crept up to -8 and -8.5. When the line moves, that is usually a sign of sharp money pressing it. In this game, the market is wrong. If you used season-long stats, you'd expect this line to be about KC+5. Despite their poor record, they have lost most of their games by 8 or less. But there's more! Orlando lost their #2 receiver - Gessner. He'll likely be playing for the Seattle Seahawks next year. Here's another odd thing about Arena football. The injury reports do NOT include players are injured reserve. Look at Orlando's defensive stats here: http://www.arenafootball.com/afl/sta...&Q_SEASON=2008 Nick Allison has a lot of tackles - he's a very active linebacker The weekly injury report is here: http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArt...RIBER_CONTENT= Nick Allison isn't listed anywhere as injured. Now, go to the team roster here: http://www.orlandopredators.com/Spor...00&SPSID=21530 Where did Nick go? He's gone - on IR. Orlando's defense is minus a starting LB, and its offense is minus its #2 receiver. Another DB is questionable - Jason Perry. He left the game early this week. I have good information he will NOT play. I was very surprised that the market moved from 7.5 to 8 and 8.5. I didn't want to give this out until I was sure that Perry wasn't playing. In this case, the fair line should be about KC+1, and the market and sharp action is simply wrong. My best bet this week is Kansas City +8 versus Orlando. |
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05-17-2008, 07:44 PM
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#10 (permalink) |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 07-03-06
Location: La Selva Lacandona
Posts: 2,256
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Seems a bit counterintuitive, though it must be true. I only looked around at arena for a few hours once, but I couldn't find much data. Gonna give it another spin this off season. Whereas I had no problem building a wnba database and getting info.
The one thing that scares me about wnba is this sport has no fans, so it must be sharps betting it. |
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05-18-2008, 12:35 AM
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#11 (permalink) | |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,269
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Quote:
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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05-18-2008, 03:54 PM
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#13 (permalink) | |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,269
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Quote:
 i have a suspecion you're setting the lines for the books 
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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05-18-2008, 03:57 PM
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#14 (permalink) | |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,443
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Quote:
Best bets now 8-2 on the year  |
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05-18-2008, 07:53 PM
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#16 (permalink) | |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,269
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Quote:
that is pretty impressive how your best bets are right on the spread...way more impressive than blowouts.
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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05-18-2008, 10:01 PM
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#17 (permalink) | |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,443
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Quote:
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05-18-2008, 11:00 PM
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#19 (permalink) | |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,269
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Quote:
__________________ "But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro |