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05-08-2008, 11:17 AM
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#1 (permalink) |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,443
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Week 11 Arena best bet
My best bet is New York -3.5 vs Los Angeles
QBs usually have the most trouble on their first outing. For this reason, you often see lower offense in week 1 (when all QBs are having their first game), and when new QBs start. This is more the case this year, with the easing of rules on the Jack linebacker. New York's offense sputtered in week 1. Then Garcia got hurt, giving Davey a few starts. Then Garcia came back. In the first 5 games (where no QB started their offense in 3 consecutive games), they averaged only 35 points per game, which is far below what Garcia can do. Garcia came back into the lineup against Dallas. Since that start, their offense has gotten back on track, averaging almost 58 points per game. This is not that unusual for one of the league's premier QBs (Garcia has a passer rating of 116 this year, as well as his average for his 15 year carreer). On the defensive side, New York has quietly climbed to the #3 defense in points allowed at 42.8 per game (behind #1 Dallas and #2 Chicago). This is not the usual "points allowed" - this excludes scores by special teams and defense, which tend to be very luck based. While LAA's offense has been inconsistent, its defense has been very consistent - consistently bad. It has allowed 55.2 points per game (only Utah and Kansas City allow more than 56 points). After starting at 2-0, reality sent it to 2-6 in the next 8 games. I make the fair line New York -8.5. I'll take them at -3.5 as this week's Arena best bet. |
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05-08-2008, 12:21 PM
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#2 (permalink) |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 09-11-07
Posts: 2,209
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NY is one of the teams I'm on this week. I'm sure Justin is aware of the huge disparity in strength of conferences in Arena play. The National Conference is 16 games better than the American Conference--where only Chicago has a winning record! I started looking at this last week and went 2-0 with Orlando and Tampa. This week 3 Nat'l teams face weaker American foes. They are:
New York (vs LA) Columbus (vs KC) Dallas (vs GR) |
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05-08-2008, 02:11 PM
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#3 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,262
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nice to see you finally picked a slight fav. i think i'll get on this early before the line moves
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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05-08-2008, 02:12 PM
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#4 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,262
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damn, too late already. the line is already at -4.5
Sat 5/10 113 New York Dragons -4.5 -105 OVER 111.5 -104 07:30 PM 114 Los Angeles Avengers +4.5 -105 UNDER 111.5 -106
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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05-08-2008, 02:14 PM
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#5 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,262
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you wise guys moved the line for a whole pt
 05/07/2008 1:30PM: -4 -105 / +4 -105 Opener 05/07/2008 1:31PM: -3.5 -107 / +3.5 -103 05/08/2008 12:17PM: -3.5 -115 / +3.5 +105 05/08/2008 12:18PM: -4.5 -105 / +4.5 -105
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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05-08-2008, 03:00 PM
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#7 (permalink) |
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 10-12-06
Location: Texas
Posts: 951
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I just took it at -4 hope this cashes cause I know nothing about arena football but I see Justin does so I am going to follow him as I don't know your record on your bets couldn't find it but I hope its good enough.
__________________
IF IT SEEMS TO GOOD TO BE TRUE IT USUALLY IS!! WNBA 1-0 +25 units Started 6-28-08 |
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05-08-2008, 03:36 PM
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#8 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,262
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i just find it interesting that justin post the thread on 12:17PM, and the line jumped on 12:17PM.
i think they'll cover easy just based on the line move. 
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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