[EaglesPhan36]

Seeing 146.5 right now. I think how you play the total could be easier than crunching #s ... but I'll crunch in any case.

If you think Kansas will win ....
UNDER

If you think Memphis will win ....
OVER

Stats don't lie here ... all 5 of KU's tourney games have gone under. All 5 of Memphis' tourney games have gone over. Another note ... this is the highest total Memphis has seen in the tourney. Only the UCLA game would not have passed the current Championship total. For KU, this is 3rd time they'll see a total in this neighborhood. They had 146.5 against an up-tempo Davidson squad and that under hit with ease. 144 against Villanova, a game that stopped at 129. And 147 against Portland State, that one hit 146.

FTs will play an enormous part here as well. KU is averaging only about 16 attempts per contest in the NCAAs and their opponents 18 attempts. That # is skewed heavily by 34 attempts by UNLV. Conversely, Memphis games have featured a heavy parade to the FT line. In fact, the UCLA game marked a low with 23 FTs attempted for the Tigers. They had been averaging over 30. Their opponents are averaging just 16 attempts per game. From those #s, you would expect the FT story to follow more along the lines of a Kansas game in the tourney which means instead of 40-50 FTs, we could see 40 or less. Memphis has been red hot making FTs and again I will say the secret is easy ... if Rose and CDR shoot 'em, they're going to continue to make 70% or more. If the big guys get involved, it gets more dicey. Kansas for their part haven't been world beaters from the line, 65% in the tourney. So rounding out to about 40 FT attempts in this one, shoot for between 65-70% to be made. That means 28 FTs made with a little wiggle room on either side.

From a FG standpoint, KU is averaging 26 makes per contest in the tourney, while yielding just 20. Memphis is averaging a little over 28 per game, while yielding just over 25 makes per game. If we average that out, you're looking at 49-50 made FGs in this one. Toss in the made 3 PTs and you could expect anywhere from 106-111 points I believe.

Based on the # crunching and my own opinion that KU will be the best D that Memphis has faced and vice versa, I am looking at the UNDER right now. KU held a potent UNC offense to 66 points and has held opponents to under 60 ppg for the tourney. On the other side, even in strolling into the Championship game, Memphis is giving up 68 ppg. I see this game playing out with the winner dipping into the low-to-mid 70s and the other team playing in the high 60s/near 70 to slip this one under the #. Somewhere around 140-144.