[onlòóker]

Location: Talladega Superspeedway
Time: Sunday 1:30PM EST / 12:30PM CST / 10:30AM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Kevin Harvick #29
2005 Winner: Jeff Gordon #24

Every time I look at Talladega Superspeedway it reminds me of a cathedral from the gothic era. It’s monsterous and huge with its intimidating presence, sort of like the Death Star in Star Wars. The power and strength of this 2.66 mile beast of a track is unparalleled with any other in the world. The 33 degrees of banking around the track and the distance allows for the drivers to just mash the pedal and drive.

And drive they do. They drive very fast!

In fact the NASCAR drivers started to go so fast at Talladega they had to do something to slow them down. That’s why we have restrictor plates now at both Talladega and Daytona. The plate is made of aluminum and has four holes drilled into it. They are placed in between the carburetor and intake manifold to reduce the rate at which fuel and air go into the engines combustion chamber, which reduces horsepower and slows the car down. The cars still go fast but it takes them a few laps to get up over 190 mph. If the plate wasn’t on one of today’s cars, speeds would reach well over 225 mph.

The favorite coming into this weeks Talladega race is Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 4 to 1. Junior looks forward to going to Talladega just as much as the fans down there love to see him. Who can forget when Jeff Gordon won under caution even though Junior passed him just after the yellow flag dropped. Every Alabama trash can was emptied onto the track. Now, that’s not cool, but in a sick way, it was kind of………….It was a tremendous show of appreciation and loyalty for Junior.

After a tough 2005 season, Talladega’s most victorious active driver is back on track early this season, with three top 10’s and two top 5’s in eight races thus far. He started the year off with a strong eighth place finish at Daytona but was still disappointed because of the smack he was talking before the race. Junior said he’d venture to predict an even better finish here in a couple weeks.

“I think we can be better than we were at Daytona. We’re always working hard on our restrictor plate program, and both me and Martin (Truex, Jr.) really like racing at Talladega,” Earnhardt, Jr. said. “Hopefully we can work together and be around at the end to try to win it.”

His reunion this season with Crew Chief Tony Eury, Jr. lends even more confidence, Earnhardt, Jr. added.

“Tony (Eury) Jr. builds great race cars, especially at restrictor-plate tracks. Not sure what car we’ll take to Talladega yet, but you can be assured it’ll be good.”

An eighth place finish at Daytona isn’t bad by any means, but comparing it to sister superspeedway Talladega, eighth had been Juniors “worst” finish here in his last 10 races (including 2 NASCAR Busch Series events) until last year. In fact, six of those races yielded wins, and the other three were second place finishes.

Last year, Junior was terrible at Talladega. He finished 15th and 40th, both unacceptable positions for the DEI team.

With five victories here to his credit, putting him second only to his father in all-time NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series wins at Talladega, Junior said the track is always a welcome sight on the schedule not just for his success here, but because of its history and the enthusiasm of its fans.

“A defining statement? It’s been a cash cow for the Earnhardts!” he said with a laugh. “Nah, I’m kidding. We’ve won a few races there, and Daddy won the Winston No Bull Million there, and it’s just been a really good race track for us. I have a deep respect and understanding for the history of our sport, and Talladega is very much a part of that history. A lot of great drivers have raced there and won there, and the fans there are deeply passionate about the sport.”

The Earnhardt’s are royalty in Alabama and on Sunday they will be honoring Dale Sr. To go along with the ceremony, Dale Jr. will be driving an all black No. 8 Budweiser Chevy. Someday, the No. 3 will be driven by Junior.

Talladega Superspeedway is among only six tracks currently on the schedule at which Tony Stewart has yet to visit Victory Lane. Stewart has 25 victories at 16 different tracks during his time in the Cup series, but has ended up second at Talladega in five of his last ten starts there, including both races of 2005.

Despite not winning on the monster track yet, Stewart maintains a positive attitude when considering his record here.

“You can say the track hasn’t been kind to me with as many second place finishes as we’ve had, but there’s 41 guys who didn’t have it as good as we had it those days. There have been a lot of days where we ran second and it was as good as a win for us. The spring race was a perfect example. We knew we didn’t have the best car, but we ended up with a second-place finish. That was the best we could do and we left the track with smiles on our faces,” Stewart said.

“The race just carries more variables that are out of your control than any other race,” Stewart said. “You can’t really predict anything. It’s not as easy as saying, ‘These guys run well here.’ Guys who don’t run well at Talladega could be contenders to win the race if the right circumstances happen. It’s one of those scenarios where you’re really going to be careful, but you’re still going to have to race hard to gain as many points as you can.”

The driver everyone is talking about is Kevin Harvick. It was only five weeks ago just prior to the Bristol race where the talk was that happy Harvick was on his way out. Toyota was courting him and Richard Childress didn’t care. Fast forward to this week and now contract extension is being discussed for Harvick by Childress. In his last four races, Harvick has a second, seventh, fifth, and a win. This is the first instance in NASCAR that I seen the “Contract Year” emulated like it is in all the other sports.

The Childress GM Goodwrench team isn’t the only team running well. Both Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer are having great seasons as well and they are doing it on all types of tracks which must be encouraging for Childress.

This week the group goes to a track where they have always done at collectively. At Daytona this year, Burton sat on the pole, Bowyer finished sixth, and Harvick 14th, but more importantly, all were contenders to win. They’ll all be good again this week.

Thirteen of the last fourteen Talladega races have been won by a Chevrolet. Dale Jarrett’s Ford won the last race there, but the odds are against it happening again. Chevy is a minus-360 favorite (Bet $360 to win $100) against the combined efforts of Ford and Dodge which is likely to be the highest number I have ever seen for that prop.

Is there any value in taking +280 with the underdog here?

Let’s see, Team Ford rolls in with Jarrett, Elliott Sadler, and Ken Schrader. Dodge comes stronger than ever with Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Casey Mears, and Bobby Labonte. Speaking of Labonte, his Petty ride will have STP on the hood this week as part of a two race deal that will have the car looking very old school. It’s been 6 years since STP left the scene.

When looking at again now, -360 might be a bit cheap. If Roush could muster anything up in plate races, you could make a solid case for taking the plus money. The Penske crew looked very good at Daytona. They have their plate program set up well and have some good drivers as well.

Kurt Busch taking over for Rusty Wallace elevates their Daytona and Talladega chances because Busch is a better plate driver than Rusty and he’s also a better teammate than Rusty. Ryan Newman can now trust Busch and work together. They shucked and jived through the field together like they had been racing together forever. Both were destined to top 5 finishes on the day, but Busch got into trouble while Newman finished third.

As for Busch being more skilled than Rusty on the plate races, It’s safe to say that Rusty was just a bit gun shy when it came to these tracks and I’m sure no one will ever blame him. Rusty had some of the more horrific rolls in NASCAR history. They were all at Talladega and Daytona where his car was turned into a kite as it whipped and flew across the air. Busch has no fear at this time of his career. He’s willing to take chances and make that winning move. His average finish there is 12.5 in 11 races with a best of finishing third twice.

It’s hard to go against Chevy this week, but I will be looking for favorable Sadler matchups and long odds to win on Newman, Busch, and Sadler. With everything paper, no one is better than Hendrick’s four cars and following them no one is better than DEI, Childress, and Gibbs. In actual plate driving ability, Gordon is tops followed by Stewart and Junior.

Later in the week we will go over some practice times. As for matchups and the importance of practice and qualifying and what they mean for this race……..nothing at all. My advise is to wager on all the plus money matchups involving Newman, Busch, Sadler, and any of the top 4 Chevy teams. It doesn’t matter if it’s Bowyer against Junior, take a shot! Plate racing is so close that the money value is increased on matchups for the bettor. Anything can happen and probably will.

[moses millsap]

Is this the week you place a wager on Nascar?

[onlòóker]

The starting grid for Sunday:

1	38	Elliott Sadler	   Ford	
2	20	Tony Stewart	   Chevrolet
3	99	Carl Edwards	   Ford	
4	88	Dale Jarrett	   Ford	
5	2	Kurt Busch	   Dodge
6	01	Joe Nemechek	   Chevrolet
7	16	Greg Biffle	   Ford	
8	26	Jamie McMurray	   Ford	
9	14	Sterling Marlin	   Chevrolet
10	6	Mark Martin	   Ford	
11	18	J.J. Yeley*	   Chevrolet
12	17	Matt Kenseth	   Ford	
13	5	Kyle Busch	   Chevrolet	
14	24	Jeff Gordon	   Chevrolet	
15	07	Clint Bowyer*	   Chevrolet
16	48	Jimmie Johnson	   Chevrolet	
17	40	David Stremme*	   Dodge	
18	12	Ryan Newman	   Dodge	
19	7	Robby Gordon	   Chevrolet	
20	1	Martin Truex Jr.*  Chevrolet	
21	55	Michael Waltrip	   Dodge	
22	27	Kirk Shelmerdine   Chevrolet
23	61	Kevin Lepage	   Ford	
24	00	Hermie Sadler	   Ford	
25	42	Casey Mears	   Dodge
26	32	Travis Kvapil	   Chevrolet
27	8	Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet
28	45	Kyle Petty	   Dodge	
29	96	Tony Raines	   Chevrolet	
30	11	Denny Hamlin*	   Chevrolet	
31	43	Bobby Labonte	   Dodge	
32	10	Scott Riggs	   Dodge	
33	25	Brian Vickers	   Chevrolet
34	34	Chad Chaffin	   Chevrolet
35	21	Ken Schrader	   Ford
36	19	Jeremy Mayfield	   Dodge
37	9	Kasey Kahne	   Dodge	
38	22	Dave Blaney	   Dodge	
39	66	Jeff Green+	   Chevrolet
40	31	Jeff Burton+	   Chevrolet	
41	41	Reed Sorenson+*	   Dodge
42	29	Kevin Harvick+	   Chevrolet	
43	4	Scott Wimmer	   Chevrolet

[onlòóker]

Here are my starting five for my stockcar challenge:

Kurt Busch         #2
Kevin Harvick      #29
Jeff Gordon        #24
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #8
Michael Waltrip    #55

[onlòóker]

Here are the current odds to win the race Sunday.

Pinnacle:

Aaron's 499: Odds To Win The Race
Sun 4/30   11:00 AM
1 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 	+440
2 Jeff Gordon 	        +525
3 Tony Stewart   	+441
4 Jimmie Johnson 	+797
5 Kevin Harvick 	+2556
6 Elliott Sadler 	+2601
7 Ryan Newman   	+5000
8 Kyle Busch 	        +2196
9 Kurt Busch 	        +1160
10 Jeff Burton 	        +5000
11 Carl Edwards 	+2647
12 Matt Kenseth 	+2132
13 Greg Biffle  	+1452
14 Dale Jarrett 	+3735
15 Casey Mears 	        +5000
16 Mark Martin 	        +5000
17 Jamie McMurray 	+4964
18 Martin Truex Jr. 	+3309
19 Kasey Kahne 	        +5500
20 Bobby Labonte 	+5500
21 Brian Vickers 	+7500
22 Denny Hamlin 	+5000
23 J.J. Yeley 	        +10000
24 Jeremy Mayfield 	+10000
25 Robby Gordon 	+6500
26 Joe Nemechek 	+6500
27 Reed Sorenson 	+12500
28 The Field 	        +2765

[bigboydan]

Jimmie Johnson +797 looks tempting

[onlòóker]

Race has been postponed unitl Monday at 12PM EST / 11AM CST / 9AM PST.

Jimmie Johnson dont do well at Talladega Dan, so be careful with that.

[Razz]

Here's how I played it...

To win/Finish Bets (3-12, +2.50*):
2* Dale Earnhardt, Jr. +452
1* Dale Jarrett +2010
1* Greg Biffle +1426
1* Carl Edwards +2222

NASCAR Matchups (1-2, -0.24*)
1* Dale Earnhardt, Jr. +117 vs. Tony Stewart

[moses millsap]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

Jimmie Johnson +797 looks tempting

Hope it was tempting enough that you bet it

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

Jimmie Johnson +797 looks tempting

Hopefully you took it, nice call.