ATP: Munich & Barcelona Plays

BuddyBear · 04-28-2008, 01:02 AM

I am not a fan of posting picks, but I am going to give it a shot and see how I do. I might just stop doing it if I get tired.

MUNICH

Simon Bolelli -111 (1 unit)

EaglesPhan36 · 04-28-2008, 10:23 AM

Damn. My book didn't get any early lines up and I forgot to check back last night before I went to sleep. Good start BB!

BuddyBear · 04-28-2008, 10:36 AM

Thanks EP. It's tricky b/c usually i have to put these bets in before I go to bed and then wake up to find out what happened.

I Actually wanted to make a play on Nicholas Lapenti at +250 and hesitated...and he won easily in straight sets. Not much early on though, lot of big mismatches and big chalk. We'll see what's up for tomorrow.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-28-2008, 04:43 PM

Berlocq +215 over Safin tomorrow is the only one I like as of now. Safin should never be this big a favorite.

BuddyBear · 04-28-2008, 11:18 PM

Haven't even looked yet. I just watched Wayne's World for the first time ever, probably would have been funnier if I watched 14 it years ago or so when I was 13, but I am going to start researching tennis right now and should have something soon.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-28-2008, 11:28 PM

Tuesday Plays - BMW Open
Berrer +175
Monfils +155

Decided against Berlocq, but won't be surprised if Safin blows it.

BuddyBear · 04-29-2008, 12:28 AM

Yeah, I personally think Safin wins in straight sets. It hasn't been a good year for him, but he should be able to beat a player the quality of Berlocq. If not, he needs to rethink his professional career at the ATP level. If the juice wasn't so high, I would play Safin. Usually anything > than -250/275 I don't play, especially at this stage of a tournament.

So for tomorrow then,

Tournament Record to Date: 1-0 (+1.00)

MUNICH

Steve Darcis -227

BARCELONA

Peter Luczak +275
Feliciano Lopez -111
Filipo Volandri -227

BuddyBear · 04-29-2008, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36

Tuesday Plays - BMW Open
Berrer +175
Monfils +155

Decided against Berlocq, but won't be surprised if Safin blows it.

These two are really tough matches. I didn't know what to make of the Hass/Berrer matchup at all so I just passed it. I can see Monfils winning but Andreev looked sharp in Monte Carlo but may be a bit exhausted as he had two really grueling matches against Almagro and Davydenko.

Good luck....

EaglesPhan36 · 04-29-2008, 12:35 AM

Well my hope is to get at least one and come out with a small profit. I took Berrer because Haas withdrew with an injury last tourny, so who knows what shape he is in.

single shaker · 04-29-2008, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36

Well my hope is to get at least one and come out with a small profit. I took Berrer because Haas withdrew with an injury last tourny, so who knows what shape he is in.

the problem betting against haas is when the things going south he often withdraws,

picked gimeno+160 earlier this morining.

BuddyBear · 04-30-2008, 12:37 AM

Well, Lopez was winning and then came the retirement

Luczak fought hard but came up short, but Volandri came through in an easy straight set winner over Meltzer. All told, 1-1 (+0 units) with 1 match pending, Steve Darcis -227.

I still have the Darcis match going, but I'll take the day off tomorrow. I've been on a nice run in baseball lately and have started to recover early season losses I expereinced months ago. I am not going to press my luck any further with tennis plays especially since I don't mind betting favs that could be a disaster on a dog day.

Also, EP, I noticed Berrer is up to +250...is something going on? I know the match was scheduled for yesterday but this seems like a drastic line move?

Good luck....

EaglesPhan36 · 04-30-2008, 11:25 AM

Haas has withdrawn

EaglesPhan36 · 04-30-2008, 09:31 PM

Thursday's Plays
Andreev -235
Gulbis +125
Kukushkin +115

BuddyBear · 05-01-2008, 12:03 AM

Been very very hot with baseball and am just considering stopping with betting for a few weeks. I've recovered nearly all my lossses from the OSU/MICH game as well as the Super Bowl disaster. I guess I'll keep playing till I start losing which could come any day now given the good stretch I've been on. I think I might just lower the amount I bet.

Tournament Results to Date: 3-1 (+2.00 units)

Mikail Kukushkin +137
Dmitry Tursnov +100

BuddyBear · 05-01-2008, 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36

Thursday's Plays
Andreev -235
Gulbis +125
Kukushkin +115

I like Kukushkin obviously, and I like Gulbis too...i may still play him. Andreev I like too, but my book has him priced really much higher than -235 so it's a no go for me. Also had a big lean toward Wawrinka (+200)...not sure what you thought about that.

Good luck EP.....

EaglesPhan36 · 05-01-2008, 12:51 AM

Good price for Wawrinka. Didn't know he had such a good H2H vs. Nalbandian. Nalby always seems good for an early exit now & again. I might play this one. Thanks for pointing it out.

I feel you on stopping ... shoot if you have the will power to stop cold after recovering funds, you are a better man than I.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-01-2008, 09:35 AM

Good call on Wawrinka brother! He is dominating Nalbandian and about to finish him off in 2. Helps me offset my two early losses. Thinking about taking Ancic over Almagro. Ancic at +145. Ancic seems to have worked his way back into pretty good form and although Almagro is a stud on clay mostly, seems like this match would probably be more of even odds if Almagro hadn't gotten to the Valencia final in April.

BuddyBear · 05-01-2008, 12:17 PM

Unfortunately I didn't play Wawrinka...should of, would of, could of.....

In any event, my prediction of being hot and cooling off came true as I anticpated so it was good I lowered the amount I placed on the matches. But still mad about it...

However, one thing needs to be said. I never in my life have seen such a pathetic performance as the one Tursunov put forth today. He is up 4-1 in the 1st set and in complete control and then manages to lose the next 11 games without even so much as a fight. Why didn't he just retire rather than give such a horrendous effort. To top it off, Germelmeyer is one of the weaker players on tour and I know DT is not a good clay court player but to put that type of effort after winning against Anderson and Daniels (a better claycourter than DG) is horrible. You never know what type of effort you will get from him or from players like Blake or PHM.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-01-2008, 01:39 PM

Yeah the Russians in general with all that has happened in tennis ... risky at best. I.E. Andreev today which is the reason I don't usually take favorites -200 or more. He got smashed.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-01-2008, 07:35 PM

Friday Plays
Robredo +165 over Ferrer
Safin +155 over Gonzalez

I'm a glutton for punishment on both of these as I took Robredo last week against Ferrer where he promptly smoked Ferrer in the opening set and then lit himself on fire and dropped two straight. Safin is always a flip of a coin, but at plus odds against another mental player like Gonzo - I'll take the plus odds and hope to get one of these right!