[saku lbn]

Hello

Here is my MMA betting FAQ. All comments are welcom, post them so it will be easier to upgrade my strategy.

It’s not enough to think – he’s good, he should win. You have to consider many things, there are no identical fights.

Skills - it's a well-known fact

Records and rankings – it’s easy to check them but they are not the most important thing. Facing each other are not rankings but two strong guys trained to fight. When you look at the records you should check the class of opponents who are in these records.

Strategy – knowing your fighter and his opponent you offten know what’s his strategy. You have to think it over here how capable of executing it he is.

Strong points and weaknesses – just like strong/glass jaw, condition(Phil Baroni), tendency to being cut above the eyebrow(Nick Diaz)

Physical details - height,weight, physical power, reach of hands.

Age and experience in MMA.

Fight mentality - tendency to get oneself unnecessary exchanges, show offs which can cause harm.

Pressure - was the last fight won or lost. How much in a row. Sometimes a fighter is too relaxed and self-confident or even the opposite.

Injuries - offten hidden, have an influence on the course of the fight, though the preparation is even a bigger influence. It would be good to know if one of the fighters isn't hiding an injury which would prevent him from a normal preparation for a fight. Though it's hard to get to these issues.

Training team - very important thing. You have to know who is the fighter training with, where he has been preparing for the fight. Changing teams offten brings positive results.

Takedowns skills and defence against them - it's very often a matter of fundamental importance, you can even not finish somebody but by being on the top you score points.

Submissions and defence against them.

Ring/octagon - it will be different for a fighter, who fought mainly in the octagon, to switch to the ring and vice versa.

Travel before the fight - sometimes a fighter has to fly all over the world to fight with the host, accommodation, jet-lag etc.

Judges - host, Japan(for example), it's a well-known fact

Crowd's pressure - offten a fighter from a smaller organisation burns out mentally, and as a result of that also physically, during his debut in a bigger organisation.

Fights of the evening - I advice you to stay away from them.

Appearance in weigh-in - it's not body-building contest but a bump over the hips may suggest something(not including Fedor)

Underdogs - as you can see usually I look for chances in fighters who are less known and favoured by the bookies, that you can make more money on. In the long run this strategy brings profits.

You should try to choose the fighter who fights smart, who knows what he wants, and not overhyped renegade who just wants to give a good show.

There are a few more tips but for now I will leave them for myself.

[losingmyshirt]

You make some very good points but I would like to add a couple of things that come to mind right away.

You mention travel before the fight and I agree this is a valid point but total distance or time zone changes may not always be the biggest factor or relevant. It is usually possible with some research to find out how long before a fight the fighter is in the location so when fighters competing in the USA who are from say Japan or vice versa arrive a couple weeks ahead of time to adjust pre fight I think the travel becomes pretty much irrelevant. Also issues such as alltitude changes should never be overlooked and I think this was very obvious at the last UFN event which took place in Colorado, both Florian and Lauzon train at sea level but Florian arrived in Colorado weeks prior to the event to allow his red blood cell count to adjust, Lauzon did not and it showed.

You also mention appearance at weigh in and I agree this is important because often it is the first time you really get to see the two fighters closeup side by side to make an accurate comparison because often stats for height listed by organizations are horribly off. Appearance at the weighin also can allow you to potentially spot a fighter that had to make a serious weight cut which can greatly affect performance ie Travis Wuiff @ 205 and Jason Black @ 155

[slacker00]

Good writeup.

I wish there were more MMA betting opportunities.

[MMAJOE]

Good facts i have been betting MMA for years here are so more tips .


Fighters that fight in the UFC and big shows tend to clamp up the first time and Gas quicker , Not used to the big shows 13k filled arenas , Experience in the Octagon means alot look some guys that failed ( Cro cop , Shogun , Wand ) even Rampage first fight in the UFC was tough he admitted he was a little overwelmed .

FIGHT CAMPS - This is very important for betting on MMA , you are only good as the guy you train with . Camps like ATT , Xtreme Couture , Chute boxe , Team Quest ,BTT ect ect . You want guys that have the best in the world training partners , alot of times there are good guys that just havent made it big but with there Camps they are more likely to succeed in there fights , Compared to John Doe who is training a local MMA / boxing gym .

Watch fights on the Internet ( if possible ) - See what both fighters are good and bad at .

How Much time Did the fighters have to Train for the fights - Its MMA alot of people get hurt training . alot of time they have to pull out and a replacement steps in with a few weeks notice .

Are Both fighters Healthy - Did he just come back from Surgery ? any major injuries during training ?

Watch the Weighs or Weigh in Pics - Did the fighter make weight ? how much weight did he have to cut ? ( Travis Lutter ) the fighter that is over a little in weight cut more weight , means the fighter is really deheydrated and is going to affect his cardio and strength for the fight . Also see how the fighter looks . does he look bigger this time or smaller than last fight ? ( BJ penn weigh in pics will tell alot , if he is kinda cut , that means he is ready and will have a great shot to win his next fight )

Look at Stats - Rashad Evans 11-0 but how many fighters are Elite fighters he has beat ? Rampage is 29-6 , key wins against Liddell 2 times, Lindland , Arona ,Henderson , Losses Against W Silva 2times ,Shogun ect .Rashad is a good fighter but not Elite Records sometimes dont tell all the facts about the fighters.

Matchups are big also - Wrestler vs Striker , Striker vs Submission guy ect , Example Matt Hughes is -260 against Thiago Alves +200 , We all Know Matt hughes a great wrestler and super strong, has over 40 mma wins and only loses are to Penn , GSP 2 times , Hallman 2 times . Thiago Alves is a very strong guy , Great striker , great takedown defense ( watch the Karo fight ) Matt Hughes is old now doesnt train with Miktech camp know more , ALVES is Great Dog at + 200 i see Alves taking it .


Its MMA anything can happen .alot more upsets than boxing ( Serra was +800 the first GSP fight ) Dont lay down anything over -400 on a straight bet it just isnt worth it , With fighters throwing kicks , knees , punches or Elbow that cuts and stops the fight ,or one wrong move and you get submitted .

I have more tips but thought i share a few .

[flyingillini]

Originally Posted by MMAJOE

Good facts i have been betting MMA for years here are so more tips .


Fighters that fight in the UFC and big shows tend to clamp up the first time and Gas quicker , Not used to the big shows 13k filled arenas , Experience in the Octagon means alot look some guys that failed ( Cro cop , Shogun , Wand ) even Rampage first fight in the UFC was tough he admitted he was a little overwelmed .

FIGHT CAMPS - This is very important for betting on MMA , you are only good as the guy you train with . Camps like ATT , Xtreme Couture , Chute boxe , Team Quest ,BTT ect ect . You want guys that have the best in the world training partners , alot of times there are good guys that just havent made it big but with there Camps they are more likely to succeed in there fights , Compared to John Doe who is training a local MMA / boxing gym .

Watch fights on the Internet ( if possible ) - See what both fighters are good and bad at .

How Much time Did the fighters have to Train for the fights - Its MMA alot of people get hurt training . alot of time they have to pull out and a replacement steps in with a few weeks notice .

Are Both fighters Healthy - Did he just come back from Surgery ? any major injuries during training ?

Watch the Weighs or Weigh in Pics - Did the fighter make weight ? how much weight did he have to cut ? ( Travis Lutter ) the fighter that is over a little in weight cut more weight , means the fighter is really deheydrated and is going to affect his cardio and strength for the fight . Also see how the fighter looks . does he look bigger this time or smaller than last fight ? ( BJ penn weigh in pics will tell alot , if he is kinda cut , that means he is ready and will have a great shot to win his next fight )

Look at Stats - Rashad Evans 11-0 but how many fighters are Elite fighters he has beat ? Rampage is 29-6 , key wins against Liddell 2 times, Lindland , Arona ,Henderson , Losses Against W Silva 2times ,Shogun ect .Rashad is a good fighter but not Elite Records sometimes dont tell all the facts about the fighters.

Matchups are big also - Wrestler vs Striker , Striker vs Submission guy ect , Example Matt Hughes is -260 against Thiago Alves +200 , We all Know Matt hughes a great wrestler and super strong, has over 40 mma wins and only loses are to Penn , GSP 2 times , Hallman 2 times . Thiago Alves is a very strong guy , Great striker , great takedown defense ( watch the Karo fight ) Matt Hughes is old now doesnt train with Miktech camp know more , ALVES is Great Dog at + 200 i see Alves taking it .


Its MMA anything can happen .alot more upsets than boxing ( Serra was +800 the first GSP fight ) Dont lay down anything over -400 on a straight bet it just isnt worth it , With fighters throwing kicks , knees , punches or Elbow that cuts and stops the fight ,or one wrong move and you get submitted .

I have more tips but thought i share a few .

Great post