 |
 |
 |
 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 |
 |
 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 |
 |
 |
 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||
|
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
05-17-2008, 08:59 AM
|
#3 (permalink) |
|
SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 01-03-07
Posts: 892
|
Hard to pass on the Mets at better than even money odds against the Yanks isnt it? The Mets haven't inspired confidence this year, but neither have the Yankees, and getting one of the game's most dominant pitchers against Darrel Rasner at +115?
|
|
|
|
05-17-2008, 10:12 AM
|
#9 (permalink) | |
|
SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 12-19-07
Posts: 13,249
|
Quote:
The big right hander for the Tigers has been very impressive this season only allowing 20 hits in 29.1 innings while recording 21 Ks. On the season Galarraga has is recording 6.44 k/9 while allowing 2.76 BB/9. Armondos LD% against is very good and he's proven to be a ground ball pitcher which should be beneficial vs a team like the Dbacks. Here is what the righty throws: 56.3% FB 31.5% sliders 11.9% change ups I think most of the baseball community is aware of what Max Scherzer brings tot he table. Max is a hard throwing right hander that has struck out over 9.2 batters per 9 innings at every level. The righty is currently striking out 6 batters for every walk he allows and he's allowed just 13 hits in his 14.1 innings of work at the major league level this season. What is concerning is his LD% allowed. Max keeps bringing the fastball and these hitters are catching on to it. as of now, 35.3% of the batted balls against him have been LDs and the rest have been evenly split b/w GB and FB. The youngster has yet to allow a HR, but thats not going to continue if he doesn't start getting some softer contact off the bats of the opposition. Here is what Max has thrown since hes been called up: 75.3% FB 15.1% slider 9.6% change up. you see a lot of younger pitchers who don't trust their change up at this level. This kid will need to trust his off speed stuff more if he wants to keep his spot through the remainder of the season. The Tigers have been awful in May going just 3-11, they've also struggled on road games with a total of 9-9.5 where they are 2-13. In their last 7 games Detroit is just 1-6 and they're only scoring 2.6 runs a game over that span. In fact, over their last 7 games the Tigers are only batting .245 with an embarrassing OBP of .279. Another concern for the Tigers is how poorly their pen has performed on the road. the tigers pen has a whip of 1.638 on the road and an era over 5.10. The relievers have done a good job of not giving up the long ball, but they've walked 37 in 61.2 road innings of work. Arizona has been pretty bad offensively over their last 7 games as well. AZ has scored just 4.4 runs per game (down from their season average of 5.5) and they're hitting just .243. The difference is, they've managed to win 4 of 7 as they've struggled at the plate. The AZ pen has been good overall, but they've struggled some of late. The pen was ranked the best in the league just about 9 days ago, now they've fallen just outside the top 10 at #11. the AZ pen has a home era of 3.62 which is very strong and this group will likely be needed with the young kid getting the start this evening. Statistically, AZ is better in every category than Detroit other than defensive Ks. Detroit doesn't strike out a lot which could pose a problem for strike out artists Max Scherzer. Over the last week, Magglio, Joyce, Cabrera, and Pudge have all been hitting well despite the fact that the Tigers continue to struggle to get runs this month. On the other side, hudson, drew, young, and ojeda have been the hot bats for the Dback. Todays umpire is Joe West who has gone over the total in 7 of his 8 games behind the plate. West has only called 2 games in which the total has ended under 10 runs and those two games totaled 8 and 9 runs respectively. I was leaning towards the under until i looked at who was behind the plate and now i'll lay off the total seeing as i now want to play the over. West was fair with his totals last season, and things are likely to even out, but with 8 runs being the lowest total in any of his 8 contests, i wont play the under here. Today im going to back the Tigers at +123 FF. I dont trust the tigers pen against the dbacks pen later in the game, but i think they can get to the rookie today while Galarraga continues to pitch well. My play for the tigers game: Det first five +123
__________________
RIP #21 Last edited by mofome : 05-17-2008 at 11:05 AM. Reason: full post did not show the first time |
|
|
|
|
05-17-2008, 10:24 AM
|
#13 (permalink) | |
|
SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 12-19-07
Posts: 13,249
|
Quote:
The big right hander for the Tigers has been very impressive this season only allowing 20 hits in 29.1 innings while recording 21 Ks. On the season Galarraga has is recording 6.44 k/9 while allowing 2.76 BB/9. Armondos LD% against is very good and he's proven to be a ground ball pitcher which should be beneficial vs a team like the Dbacks. Here is what the righty throws: 56.3% FB 31.5% sliders 11.9% change ups I think most of the baseball community is aware of what Max Scherzer brings tot he table. Max is a hard throwing right hander that has struck out over 9.2 batters per 9 innings at every level. The righty is currently striking out 6 batters for every walk he allows and he's allowed just 13 hits in his 14.1 innings of work at the major league level this season. What is concerning is his LD% allowed. Max keeps bringing the fastball and these hitters are catching on to it. as of now, 35.3% of the batted balls against him have been LDs and the rest have been evenly split b/w GB and FB. The youngster has yet to allow a HR, but thats not going to continue if he doesn't start getting some softer contact off the bats of the opposition. Here is what Max has thrown since hes been called up: 75.3% FB 15.1% slider 9.6% change up. you see a lot of younger pitchers who don't trust their change up at this level. This kid will need to trust his off speed stuff more if he wants to keep his spot through the remainder of the season. The Tigers have been awful in May going just 3-11, they've also struggled on road games with a total of 9-9.5 where they are 2-13. In their last 7 games Detroit is just 1-6 and they're only scoring 2.6 runs a game over that span. In fact, over their last 7 games the Tigers are only batting .245 with an embarrassing OBP of .279. Another concern for the Tigers is how poorly their pen has performed on the road. the tigers pen has a whip of 1.638 on the road and an era over 5.10. The relievers have done a good job of not giving up the long ball, but they've walked 37 in 61.2 road innings of work. Arizona has been pretty bad offensively over their last 7 games as well. AZ has scored just 4.4 runs per game (down from their season average of 5.5) and they're hitting just .243. The difference is, they've managed to win 4 of 7 as they've struggled at the plate. The AZ pen has been good overall, but they've struggled some of late. The pen was ranked the best in the league just about 9 days ago, now they've fallen just outside the top 10 at #11. the AZ pen has a home era of 3.62 which is very strong and this group will likely be needed with the young kid getting the start this evening. Statistically, AZ is better in every category than Detroit other than defensive Ks. Detroit doesn't strike out a lot which could pose a problem for strike out artists Max Scherzer. Over the last week, Magglio, Joyce, Cabrera, and Pudge have all been hitting well despite the fact that the Tigers continue to struggle to get runs this month. On the other side, hudson, drew, young, and ojeda have been the hot bats for the Dback. Todays umpire is Joe West who has gone over the total in 7 of his 8 games behind the plate. West has only called 2 games in which the total has ended under 10 runs and those two games totaled 8 and 9 runs respectively. I was leaning towards the under until i looked at who was behind the plate and now i'll lay off the total seeing as i now want to play the over. West was fair with his totals last season, and things are likely to even out, but with 8 runs being the lowest total in any of his 8 contests, i wont play the under here. Today im going to back the Tigers at +123 FF. I dont trust the tigers pen against the dbacks pen later in the game, but i think they can get to the rookie today while Galarraga continues to pitch well. My play for the tigers game: Det first five +123
__________________
RIP #21 |
|
|
|
|
|
05-17-2008, 10:56 AM
|
#16 (permalink) | |
|
SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 12-19-07
Posts: 13,249
|
Quote:
Carmona @ Harang The first thing that jumps out is the two starters, obviously, and then the total that sits a bit high at 8.5. This is likely related to weather or the ump, so i'll check those things out now. Tom Hallion is behind the plate tonight and hes been pretty even with 6 of his first 10 games going under. Last season he was more of an over ump with the over going 19-15. Toms first 5 games all went under and that was followed by a streak of 4 overs before his last game, (estes/marquis) went under earlier in the week. So, it aint the ump. I'll take a look at the weather, i have a feeling i know what im going to find... Wind. Yep, 20mph winds blowing out towards left field today with scattered thunderstorms. Wind = over. Rain delays = increased chance for delays and needing to go to the bullpen a bit earlier. you never want to break a pitchers rhythm and some managers wont bring their starters back after a length delay. It looks like they'll get the game in today, but it could take a while. Faustos Ks are way down and his walks are way up. Each of those statstics, BB and K, are absolutely pathetic for Carmona this season, but he continues to have success. The righty is walking 6.47 batters per 9 and only striking out .51 batters per walk allowed. Carmona is an extreme ground ball pitcher which will give him an advantage today with the wind blowing out and opposing a lineup that likes to swing for the fences at home. Carmonas batted ball chart looks like this:
Here is what the youngster throws:
everything he throws sinks which makes him tough to hit HRs against; on the season Carmona has given up just 1 HR 6-7 Aaron Harang is putting together another excellent season. He has an era of 3.32 and has allowed just 55 hits in 62.1 innings while recording 51Ks. Harang is a bit of a fly ball pitcher which could spell trouble today if the winds continue to blow at 15+ MPH. Here is Harangs batted ball chart:
With only 35% of the balls batted against him being grounders, he will have to avoid the walks and try to stay out of the big innings if he can't keep the ball down. On the season Harang is allowing just 2.17 walks per 9 which is strong. Aaron is essentially a 2 pitch pitcher, he likes the FB and the slider. Here is what he throws:
Clev has been very good this month with a 9-5 record, but their offense has continued to struggle as they've posted just 4 runs a game over their last 7. Worse still, Clev is batting just .206 over their last seven games which is ridiculous. Cinci, on the other hand, has been raking with 5.7 runs per game in their last 7 and a BA over .300. Unfortunately, they've been giving up as many runs as they've scored over that span. Each of these bullpens has been decent in the home/road spots they find themselves in today. Cinci's pen has been especially impressive at home with an era of 2.83 and a whip under 1.20. The cinci starter has some experience vs the tribe and hes been pretty dominant against everyone but Sizemore. overall the clev lineup is only batting .237 against him with an OPS over .646. Carmona, has not had similar success against the Cinci roster. as a team the reds players are batting .292 against Fausto in 24 ABs. The redeeming news for the right-hander is the fact that he's only allowed one extra base hit against this reds group; that hit was a double off the bat of Ken Griffey jr. The wind blowing out is certainly a factor, but with carmona on the hill for one side, the hr ball should not be in play all that much. Harang has had a lot of success against the tribe when hes seen them and hes really limited their power against him. I have two selections for this game: Clev -106 under 8.5 -115
__________________
RIP #21 |
|
|
|
|
