[SBRforum Staff]

Play on the Padres at the Giants

Game Time: 4/4/2007 10:15:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.procappers.com

Look for the Giants offense to struggle once again against Padres pitching this evening. Side with San Diego at San Francisco.

San Diego easily took care of the Giants on Tuesday in the opener for both teams.

The San Francisco offense struggled against Jake Peavy and while Chris Young is not nearly the same pitcher, he proved last season he is one not to look past. In his first season with the Padres, Young went 11-5 with a 3.46 ERA and similar to what happened in Texas the year before, he started strong and faded slightly at the end. He posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP prior to the All-Star break.

The Padres play in a pitcher’s park but that was not the secret to Young’s success as he was much better on the road. He had a 2.41 ERA on the road while going 6-0 and the Padres going 12-4 in his 16 road starts. As a matter of fact, Young has not lost on the road since June 25, 2005.

He faces off against Matt Cain who is coming off a very solid first full season in the big leagues. However, it took him a while to get going as he struggled early on with a 5.12 pre-All Star break ERA. He went 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA in April and while he mastered the Padres, all of those starts came after July 1.

Yesterday’s victory was rare in the way it occurred as it was the Giants' first Opening Day shutout in 40 years and the Padres first Opening Day shutout ever. What that shows is where these teams are even after just one game. The Padres offense is off to a strong start as it took the Padres only four innings to collect more hits with men in scoring position than they had in last year's four-game playoff series against the Cardinals. That number was three and if it’s any indication, San Diego will continue that on Wednesday.

This situation was on the Padres side on Tuesday and we’ll use it again here as it is now 2-1 on the early season. Teams that finished poorly in the prior season tend to start the new season slow as well despite all that time off. Play against any team in the first 12 games of the season after closing out last season poorly with 11 or more losses in their last 15 games. This situation is 38-11 against the money line (77.5%) since 1997 with the average run differential +1.9 rpg. The Padres get it done again on Tuesday. Play San Diego for one unit.

Play: Padres Even

[bigboydan]

Passing on the side in this game, but I like this over 7.5 Mr.Fargo.

[moses millsap]

I wish I could go to this game tonight.