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Thread Tools | Display Modes |
11-29-2005, 06:17 AM
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#1 (permalink) |
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SBR
Join Date: 11-16-05
Location:
Posts: 18,143
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Are Bookmakers Are Making Mistakes Again?
Whats up? Looking at spreads for next week I saw
two games where i couldn't believe the spreads!!!!!!! Tampa Bay -3.5 <----- Only 3.5 Should be 7 ?? New Orleans Seattle -3.5 <----- Only 3.5 Should be 8 ??? Philadelphia Whats going on here you guys? These Spreads Don't Make Sense To Me? Even If They Are On the road?? I asked three people i know that didn't know what the spreads were yet for next week what the spreads would be on these games and all 3 people had the spreads higher than what the bookmakers have them.. What Do You think??? |
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11-29-2005, 07:57 AM
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#2 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 08-22-05
Location: Alabama
Posts: 5,682
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First of all, the mistakes everybody said the bookmakers were making (Dallas -2 vs. Denver; Washington +3 vs. San Diego) turned out to be right on the nose, and the betting public should have lost on those games.
On the first game, TB is a bad road favorite (it's not to hard to remember the last time, when they lost SU as a double digit fav). But, I think they will win this game, as Aaron Brooks has almost never put consecutive solid performances together, especially against the caliber defense he will face Sunday. I don't see a problem with the Seattle spread at all. If anything, it should be lower. The Eagles are actually a better value play now than at any point in the Andy Reid era, because he has no choice but to run the football, and they have been doing so successfully since the TO debacle, and the rash of injuries. Seattle is nowhere near as coherent away from home, especially on the east coast. They have played two games on the east coast, and those are their only two losses of the season. They also missed ATS in those losses at Jacksonville and Washington. I think Philly will win this one outright as well. |
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11-29-2005, 09:30 AM
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#3 (permalink) | |
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SBR
Join Date: 11-16-05
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Quote:
You brought up great points as to why you think the eagles are going to win,but please consider this the eagles offense without McNabb is completely lethargic,they were at home last week against the"packers"and won a game they shouldn't of won.They had 91 yards passing and now is going to have to keep up with the NFL's # 1 total offense?Eagles Defense is nothing to brag about ranking 26th in total defense.Eagles offensive line is fluttered with injuries and has been poor all season anyway,And Seattle leads entire NFL with 34 sacks.. Razz? You still like the eagles? total ! |
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11-29-2005, 09:53 AM
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#4 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 08-22-05
Location: Alabama
Posts: 5,682
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Their defensive numbers appear worse than reality, because early in the season, they were on the field so much because Reid insisted on throwing the ball with reckless abandon. If the Eagles do end up being one of my plays, they would certainly be at the back end.
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11-29-2005, 01:01 PM
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#8 (permalink) |
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SBR Sharp
Join Date: 10-03-05
Posts: 352
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A wise man once said: gambling addiction starts as soon as you think that you are smarter than the bookmakers.
Sounds good to me...i cant imagine that all those big books make mistakes. If all have that line than it should be exactly the correct value. |
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11-29-2005, 02:13 PM
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#9 (permalink) | |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 08-20-05
Posts: 1,603
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Quote:
They were right on with the San Diego game though. Its pretty bold to say the betting public should have lost on any game if they didn't lose. Are you a bookie by chance, Razz? 
__________________
The sportsbook does not beat the player. The sportsbook gives the player the opportunity to beat himself. The player's greatest advantage is the ability to pass on a game. The sportsbook cannot pass. It is better to lose sharp than to win stupid. |
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11-29-2005, 02:14 PM
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#10 (permalink) | |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 08-20-05
Posts: 1,603
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Quote:
__________________
The sportsbook does not beat the player. The sportsbook gives the player the opportunity to beat himself. The player's greatest advantage is the ability to pass on a game. The sportsbook cannot pass. It is better to lose sharp than to win stupid. |
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11-29-2005, 02:16 PM
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#11 (permalink) | |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 08-20-05
Posts: 1,603
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Quote:
__________________
The sportsbook does not beat the player. The sportsbook gives the player the opportunity to beat himself. The player's greatest advantage is the ability to pass on a game. The sportsbook cannot pass. It is better to lose sharp than to win stupid. |
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11-29-2005, 02:19 PM
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#12 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 08-22-05
Location: Alabama
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Senator, I didn't mean in reference to getting equal action, which is obviously the true goal. I meant in terms that it would be a close game, and Dallas should win at the end, which they somehow managed not to. In retrospect, they probably should have opened Dallas at pk, but its hard to think that would really make a difference in the money coming in.
Everyone I know loves the Packers this week, which kind of scares me. |
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11-29-2005, 02:22 PM
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#13 (permalink) | |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 08-20-05
Posts: 1,603
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Quote:
I'm beginning to wonder if the problems that some books have had this season are being caused by greediness. It seems like the books aren't satisfied with just their 10% and they seem to be gambling themselves on certain games.
__________________
The sportsbook does not beat the player. The sportsbook gives the player the opportunity to beat himself. The player's greatest advantage is the ability to pass on a game. The sportsbook cannot pass. It is better to lose sharp than to win stupid. |
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11-29-2005, 02:33 PM
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#14 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 08-25-05
Posts: 6,037
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If you want to compromise and give me 5.5 with the Saints and 6 with the Eagles, I'm in. You think those teams should be a touchdown minimum road chalk? Give me a break. The public squares have been blessed all year in the NFL and got damn lucky to get the two road chalks laying 3.5 (Chargers and Rams) to cover this weekend with those miracle OT finishes. On top of that, the public got even luckier that Feely couldn't make a FG to close it out, so their sucker teasers with the Seahawks cashed too.
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11-29-2005, 10:40 PM
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#15 (permalink) | |
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SBR
Join Date: 11-16-05
Location:
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Quote:
someone who is a square and bets nothing but road chalks and favorite and such.To everyone who thinks that about me consider this ok maybe i got lucky and won two games i shouldn't have with rams and Sd,but consider this people who wagered on SD and the Rams were also wagering against Wash and Texans and both those teams gave up big leads at home,it was luck but i've seen plenty worse.And looking at two isolated situations and making an opinion of me after is unfair.When i gave out my college football lock of the year with oregon 2 wks ago and they won by 42pts was that luck? or my 49 unit teaser with bengals and titans they won fair and square. square yeah!! |
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